Topgun514's Account Talk

[BigJohn]

Topgun

BIGJOHN follows a very simple system...buy in when the market drop 1-2% and sell when it gains 1-2%. I think it's really 2 percent but you can't always get your 2%. I'm sure BigJohn will finetune my comment. :laugh:

JP has it about right...let me clog things up with a more lengthy explanation from a July 2011 post:
Refinement, call it the 1% strategy:

If you are in the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are more than 1% above where you bought in (as measured by the share price), I get out and lock it in.

If I am out of the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are down more than 1% than the previous day's close, I go all in.

My earlier post alluded to this play but wasn't specific enough.

Buyer beware: in my 5 plus years on TSP Talk I have seen some red hot investment strategies come and go, some dropping off the board entirely and some being so successful they became a premium service. My strategy works for me for several reasons, the most significant of which is that I have a long time until retirement and can wait out a big loss...like I did in 2008. I lost about 34% in 2008...and was the highest return in 2009 because I refused to lock in a loss and left it alone...all the while buying more shares.

One BIG mistake I made early on was to allow my competitive nature dictate moves...some of the biggest mistakes I have made were motivated out of a desire to earn a coffee mug. I had to remind myself that money someone else makes is not money out of my pocket.

Finally a piece of advice: if someone on the board is kicking butt and not posting strategy, send them a message asking them to do so. I didn't post for years because I had no confidence in what I was doing and didn't want to lead others of a cliff.

Caveat: Birch applauded my strategy, take that for what you will.

 

[Stoplight]

TG,

I, like you, have always been a "keep it under the mattress" kinda guy, too, and I've paid the price in missed opportunities BUT, as you noted, you're learning, and your starting young...BOTH good things !

Just my 2 cents worth : Take a look at the "Sentiment Survey" system Tom posts on the board...it's based on the collective "wisdom" (or dumbness !) of many of the members here at TSP Talk ...and it's free !

Second, I tend to agree with Birch...everyone's definition of "timing" is different, and IMHO, working within the TSP and the stupid IFT limit isn't really "timing". Since I retired, I rolled most of my TSP funds into a brokerage IRA fund, and now I can do as Birch suggests, buying individual stocks, with dividends or growth potential, and playing around with some of the more "short term"-type trades. I know that's not relevant to your situation...just saying...

Take a good luck at all of the advice you're getting ; look at your options ; decide what you're comfortable with ; and just make money !!!

Best of luck to you...

Stoplight...

 

[Topgun514]

Hey guys,

quick question, per thousand dollars, what is a good month/ year growth for it.
I assume $10 gained per $1000 invested per month and $100 per $1000 gained per year is good, solid growth?

With this knowledge, would it be prudent to hit a mark per year, then wait out in G for the next burst forward? (I ask in these terms because I am better with numbers than percentages) With this, you would hit your 10% per year (which I think is very good btw, or some other percentage) and then collect in G, plotting for the next move?

 

[Cactus]

I used to think that way. If I could get 5% in January I would sit out the rest of the year in the G Fund and wait till next year. It never worked for me because I always started going negative and spent the rest of the year trying to get back up to zero. That didn't work either which is why I'm so far behind now I'll never catch up, even with the gains I have YTD.

 

[ILoveTDs]

A good growth rate is anything better then the market rate.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Topgun. Suggest you increase your contribution to 5 percent as quickly as possible to get full match from Government ( free money!!) Then increase your contribution every January by the inflation increase given that year... Just keep doing that until you get to 15 percent...this way it is painless and never notice what you never got. Right now we have not gotten those yearly increases like we used to so maybe just adding in 1 percent each year or more if possible. remember the more you put in even above 5 percent match is not taxed by Uncle Sam so think about fact that for the money you keep, it is actually less since some of it is going to uncle via the taxes you pay each year.

I would suggest that you consider placing most of it in US stocks 70 or more percent and leave it alone unless you are going to stay committed to learn timing strategies and devote time to watching it very closely. At your age I was too busy and left it and made out well. Research the long term earning percentages for the G, F, C, S, and I fund for longest period possible and you will see that stocks rock! long term they are the best if we are in a long range ( I. E. decades) bull market run like we are right now. of course that could change so it is good too keep looking at market long range to see when it goes back to a bear. So if i could do again and due to big hitvwe took in 2008/2009... would pay closer attention to try and avoid those big losses but tgat then puts you back in position of trying to time the market. keep in mind if you are using a hold and stay strategy you would not want to get in and out too often for fear of losing out on unexpected gains.

Plus if you stay out enough waiting for entry points you risk not being in market when money is being made and so your losses are not countered by the gains. This is a lot to consider but good luck you.

P.s. I do believe market will take a big hit when all the money gov is printing and debt starts to really hit. problem is not sure when that will happen. That is reason why I exited market and now trying to learn entry/exit strategies.... To limit my risks as I am nearer to retirement now... In a few more yrs.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

One more thing because market is a little crazy and government is printing money to counter low GDP and prevent deflation that could cause market drop as well as Fed saying it will eventually backing off of its current practice.... if not backed off slowly enough it could cause market issues....Bottom line is you should follow what you think best as I don't know that anyone truly knows what will happen. So diversifying and spreading monies is also good strategy. G is safest but right now making no money that way but G is also not losing money.

 

[Topgun514]

I am sticking strong in 2050, moving money around C,S,I.

I also plunked about 1/5 of my money into the F fund. I feel like even with all of the bond issues we are bound for a rebound back to 110. Once it gets there I will drop it.

 

[Topgun514]

I am sticking strong in 2050, moving money around C,S,I.

I also plunked about 1/5 of my money into the F fund. I feel like even with all of the bond issues we are bound for a rebound back to 110. Once it gets there I will drop it.

Good idea?

 

[Mcqlives]

Good idea?

Maybe on the F fund. We'll find out tomorrow. I don't follow the L funds much but assume the 2050 is almost all in CSI and is split between the three...I is higher risk with the Turkey, Syria, Egypt turmoil and weakness (worse than ours) in the western EU's countries financials. I think the large caps may out perform the smalls the rest of the year. Good luck!

 

[Cactus]

I don't follow the L funds much but assume the 2050 is almost all in CSI and is split between the three.

You used to be able to find the Fund allocations of the various L Funds on the tsp.gov site. I can't find them any more since they updated their site. Anyone know where we can get this info?

 

[tsptalk]

You used to be able to find the Fund allocations of the various L Funds on the tsp.gov site. I can't find them any more since they updated their site. Anyone know where we can get this info?

Check out page 3 of...

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/tsplf14.pdf

 

[Mcqlives]

Check out page 3 of...

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/tsplf14.pdf

Thanks Tom, I couldn't find it either. So 43/19/26% (CSI) is a decent split for what I think (maybe, perchance, on a wing and a prayer) the market might do.

 

[Topgun514]

Is anyone else looking to buy into F currently or is that a bad idea?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Is anyone else looking to buy into F currently or is that a bad idea?

I won't be touching it again once I get out of this trade. It is more broke than the I fund is, and THAT is saying something.

 

[tsptalk]

Sounds like we need a bond market sentiment survey.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Sounds like we need a bond market sentiment survey.

Works for me, since it no longer goes opposite of the equity market...

 

[rspring]

It looks like the rotation out of bonds has definately started. I have 25% exposure. I'm just glad I did't go 100% F.

 

[Topgun514]

Should I cut my losses and exit. I have about 30 years before retiring, but I could put my money into something that would give me a better return this year. I am after yearly returns, long run bores me.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Should I cut my losses and exit. I have about 30 years before retiring, but I could put my money into something that would give me a better return this year. I am after yearly returns, long run bores me.

Depends on your IFT status and whether you think you will need to use one before the end of the month...

Weigh your options and see what is best for you and your retirement horizon.