Topgun514's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

The best you can do for yourself is to set it and forget it for at least the next five years or so. You need to accumulate shares and stay disciplined in doing that. 100% C is going to be the best choice. TSP prices are getting expensive and your dollars will buy fewer shares as we advance further in price. That's the reality of a bull market.

 

[Topgun514]

Even at my current age, I feel like I play things safer. Would keeping it all in my old state (50% L2040, 15% G, 10% F, C, S, 5% I) and just leaving it for a few years be more prudent? I know no one is to give me financial advice here, but is a buy and hold approach appropriate for someone my age?

 

[jpcavin]

Even at my current age, I feel like I play things safer. Would keeping it all in my old state (50% L2040, 15% G, 10% F, C, S, 5% I) and just leaving it for a few years be more prudent? I know no one is to give me financial advice here, but is a buy and hold approach appropriate for someone my age?

If you're going to do all that, why not put it all in L2050?

 

[Topgun514]

If you're going to do all that, why not put it all in L2050?

Ok, I, Topgun514, being of sound body and mind, will wait for the next down day in the market, and buy back in, 100% 2050. Or 2040, or something like that. Crap.

This is so conflicting with how I typically am. The money under the bed sheets kinda guy.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Quick question, are you going to buy and hold or do you want to try and "time the market" to buy on the dips and sell on the highs?

 

[jpcavin]

Hey, wait a second there. I didn't say to buy L2050. I figured if you're going to get into all the funds, why not just pick one that already does it for you like the L2050.

 

[jpcavin]

He says he doesn't know so he is better off with one of the life funds or just pick C and set it and forget it like Birch says

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

He says he doesn't know so he is better off with one of the life funds or just pick C and set it and forget it like Birch says

Well, I wouldn't recommend what Birch says in the TSP... but, if TG is going to be a B&H, then he should just put everything in the appropriate life cycle fund for his retirement time frame.

If he is going to move things around, then there is more to talk about.

 

[jpcavin]

Or he can just follow someone on the top 50. Too easy to lose money if u don't know what you're doing.

 

[Topgun514]

Quick question, are you going to buy and hold or do you want to try and "time the market" to buy on the dips and sell on the highs?

I would like to learn the market and be able to time it, but as we have found out over the past few months, I am awful at that.

And jpcavin, I know you're not saying I should do one thing or the other. I think I would trust a lifecycle fund over 100% C/S/I however because of how jumpy I am with the volatility. Maybe my current plan should be buy and hold in a lifecycle fund, and learn timing, slowly moving 10% or so to other funds and "practicing" with that to see how I do, and move from there as time progresses.

I currently see a few charts you guys have printed out on this and I am trying to even understand those and learn them. It probably would be better if I understood the reason behind the market besides making blind guesses like "May and October are dangerous over the past years."

Or he can just follow someone on the top 50. Too easy to lose money if u don't know what you're doing.

Is there a place where I can find the top 50 and see there day to day plays?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I would like to learn the market and be able to time it, but as we have found out over the past few months, I am awful at that.

And jpcavin, I know you're not saying I should do one thing or the other. I think I would trust a lifecycle fund over 100% C/S/I however because of how jumpy I am with the volatility. Maybe my current plan should be buy and hold in a lifecycle fund, and learn timing, slowly moving 10% or so to other funds and "practicing" with that to see how I do, and move from there as time progresses.

I currently see a few charts you guys have printed out on this and I am trying to even understand those and learn them. It probably would be better if I understood the reason behind the market besides making blind guesses like "May and October are dangerous over the past years."



Is there a place where I can find the top 50 and see there day to day plays?

Sounds like a good plan.

TSP Talk AutoTracker

 

[jpcavin]

Topgun
As you can see, everyone has an opinion. I knew nothing and still feel like I don't know much. In the beginning, I started following the top 50 while I read and studied market analysis. Later, I would test what I learned and guesstimate the moves of the top 50 to see how close or how far off I was. Now I kind of just do my own thing. Made it to the top 10 once and got my free mug
BIGJOHN follows a very simple system...buy in when the market drop 1-2% and sell when it gains 1-2%. I think it's really 2 percent but you can't always get your 2%. I'm sure BigJohn will finetune my comment. :laugh:

 

[jpcavin]

Look at the Autotracker to see the rankings. You can see all their moves and daily gains and losses.

 

[jpcavin]

Well, I wouldn't recommend what Birch says in the TSP

And therein lies your problem. :laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[Topgun514]

Topgun
As you can see, everyone has an opinion. I knew nothing and still feel like I don't know much. In the beginning, I started following the top 50 while I read and studied market analysis. Later, I would test what I learned and guesstimate the moves of the top 50 to see how close or how far off I was. Now I kind of just do my own thing. Made it to the top 10 once and got my free mug
BIGJOHN follows a very simple system...buy in when the market drop 1-2% and sell when it gains 1-2%. I think it's really 2 percent but you can't always get your 2%. I'm sure BigJohn will finetune my comment. :laugh:

Where do you sell or put your remainder money once you have hit that 2% though? Back all in G and wait for a down day? Lifecycles?

 

[jpcavin]

Normally G

 

[Birchtree]

Honestly, time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market. I firmly believe that you can't make serious money timing the TSP funds unless you have accumulated at least a 20,000 share position and that takes many years of time in grade. TSP is a fiduciary account designed not to be too volatile so there aren't many large point changes to take advantage of. Open a Roth IRA if you want to play and then buy individual stocks if you crave excitement of the animal spirits. My friends do let friends buy and hold.

 

[BigJohn]

Is there a place where I can find the top 50 and see there day to day plays?[/QUOTE]

If you aren't on the AutoTracker, sign up and spend some time feeling out the information it contains. In addition to the yearly rankings, you can go to "members return analysis" and select rankings month to date, quarter to date, etc... It is good to know who is having a great year, but might be more helpful to know who is doing well more recently.

Following the leaders is a tried and true strategery.

Best of Luck

 

[bmneveu]

Usually "Out" refers to G and/or F and "In" refers to C, S, and/or I

 

[Topgun514]

Thank you guys so much! This has been so helpful.

Any charts or graphs I should get accustomed to for the TSP accounts? I can start doing some research on this later on.