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Transports, NASDAQ, S&P 500, & Small Caps
Transports, NASDAQ, S&P 500, & Small Caps
I don't have much to say about the American Markets, so I'll make it brief. Everything looks good, but we do have a couple of things I'll be watching going into next week.
On the 15 minute charts covering last week, the Transports (upper left) put in its 4331.26 high on Wednesday March 10th, and has tagged just short of this level 2 additional times. This could be a short-term Bullish Ascending Triangle . At the same time I don't want to mislead you as I have seen several examples last year when the Transports put in a swing high just before the rest of the markets did, leading into the next pullback. As you can see, the other 3 charts put in their highs early Friday morning.
Here are the 60 minute charts covering the last 5 weeks since the March 5th swing low. On these charts I've drawn Raff Regression Channels. I use these channels to determine if prices are overbought, oversold, or on target. The middle line is a good way to determine the median price. As you can see from these 4 charts, we are right on target and everything appears fairly valued.
On the Daily charts I've redrawn the Fibonacci levels to reflect the latest swing highs. With all 4 charts, the 20EMA is trading above the 50EMA and the 50EMA is trading above the 200EMA. I've been using a customized True Strength Index as an intermediate watch dog. When the green line dips into the red bollinger band, it will signal a momentum change. The PVI/NVI indicators are on target confirming this rally. They are both trading above their 9EMA (short-term) and the 9EMA is trading above the 13EMA (Short-Intermediate-term.)
A little switch-up here. I may stop using the S&P 600 small caps and start using this Russell 2000 ETF. This is because the Russell 2000 ETF provides me the volume data I can't get with the S&P 600.
Now here's where it gets murky. Here is the Daily Dollar ETF UUP. Once again I'm using this particular chart so I can show us the Volume data. The Purple line is the S&P 500. When the Dollar rises the S&P 500 tends to decline. When the dollar trades sideways or down the S&P 500 tends to rise. The point I'm trying to make is that the dollar is reaching a crossroads where it is trading at the bottom of it's rising long-term Raff Regression Channel and close to the bottom of the descending channel. In addition the True Strength Index and PVI have signaled a sell, while the NVI has held its ground.
Bottom line: If the Dollar continues to fall, I expect stocks to continue to climb and it will be a much needed boost for our I-Funders. However, if the Dollar decides to bounce off these levels of regression support, then I expect stocks to begin the next pullback.
Thanks for reading, I'm still working on an I-Fund report, I'll likely post it in my account talk...Jason
