Today

[tsptalk]

imported post

thinks wrote:

That confused me a little when C (seemed out of nowhere) to do better than S fund... I was thinking this year the S had been doing better.... care to expand on this?

I'm not sure if you were talking about my post bt I'll butt in...
The S has been doing better this year. I have been wondering when rising interest rates would affect small caps which are more interest rate sensitive. The other day the C fund outperformedthe S fund and that gets me thinking again about when to even out or go heavier into the C fund (over the S). Today showed me the S fund is still in charge.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

-small cap OUTperform large cap [c] becouse low interes-

-large cap {c} outperform small cap {i} at rates start rise-

 

[Rolo]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

The S has been doing better this year. I have been wondering when rising interest rates would affect small caps which are more interest rate sensitive. The other day the C fund outperformedthe S fund and that gets me thinking again about when to even out or go heavier into the C fund (over the S). Today showed me the S fund is still in charge.

Agreed....eeeeeeeeSSSSSSSSSSS! ehehe

Now that's butting in! Oh, pardon me, my bias is showing.

I am speculating that the actual change in rates or the declarationof a change will be the turning point that favours C. The question is, which is it andhow do we best time that?

Back to you, Tom!

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

I think it's a slower process than I first thought. If you go back to the early nineties it took a year or more after rate hikes for the C fund to take over. Maybe it doesn't happen until the first earnings are effected by the hike.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

Maybe it doesn't happen until the first earnings are effected by the hike.

Ahhhhh! Good point. I am under the impression that changes in earningsare a huge factor is stock prices, pretty much the be-all, end-all.

In the meantime...{gasp}...eeeee...hehehe.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

OPEC says they will raise oil production by 2.5 million barrels a day which could lower oil prices by $6-$8 a barrel within a few weeks. The market loved that news and shot up taking out Thursday, Friday and Monday's high. No more downtrend.

That may be what the late bulls needed to hear to finally get on board. That means the pullback may be within reach. Until then, enjoy the ride. Watch 1130-1135 on the S&P 500 as a potential target.

Good news IS good newsthese days. Quite a change from a couple of weeks ago.

By the way, the dollar shot up also when the oil announcement was made.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

If you read the market comments early this morning, I wanted to let you know I added a bit of material at about 8:00 AM ET. It is options expiration week once again and we see a correlation between a strongpre-options expiration week and a weak post-options expiration week next week (that's a lot of weeks and weaks ) and the June seasonality chart.

Market Comments

Something for short term investors to consider.
Tom

 

[retire rich]

imported post

Laying low today, I thought if market has a down day starting out, I might bite a lilttle. But after thinking about all the nervousness, and uncertainty, I think I will play "hide in the G fund" until more solid direction appears. Definitly will jump in today if more sell off is happening. currently 100% G...for now.

 

[smine]

imported post

Same here, Toby. Last week took bigreturn then retreated to 100% G on Tuesday for Wednesday. Will get back in again when the market drops really low (as it's doing now). Until then I want to preserve what I have!! :^

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

The good news is the drop is on very light volume so far. Could be one of the lightest trading days of the year so far.

Just as a rally on light volume sends up a red flag, a decline on light volume is a good sign. The market seems to be wantinga catalyst to get it going again.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

D'oh! I always forget to look at volume! :dah:

That is a bit relievingto hear and you said it, the market needs a catalyst. I think we'll be OK if we stay above Monday's low, ya?

Odd. All of my stocks are up (two rose 5% intraday, on high volume)...this index stuff is killin' me!

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

Odd. All of my stocks are up (two rose 5% intraday, on high volume)...this index stuff is killin' me!

Those must be some quality stocks. Nice relative strength as they call it.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

That is a bit relievingto hear and you said it, the market needs a catalyst. I think we'll be OK if we stay above Monday's low, ya?

So far we have held but it wouldn't surprise me if the S&P 500 fell to the 1118 area tomorrow, where the 50 day moving average is, before rebounding. I'd like to see that hold for sure.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

The 50-day came to my mind, too. I almost went all G until they hit the 50-day.

I keep mixing strategies and that kills me. (Do I do gut or FRO?) I have commitment issues? hehe

My stocks did settle today,four up, one down, but up overall.VLCCF and WBSN pretty much ignore the market entirely and keep growing; I just got back into SCSS, got out right before it topped, SIRI and XMSR pretty much do their own thing.

There seem to be a lot of flat bases. I am interpreting that as no dips anytime soon. Hmmm.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

How glad am I that I did not get nervous and bail yesterday? That would have been disastrous to be in stocks Monday and out Tuesday. To be honest, if it wasn't for that pre-options expiration week data saying this week is typically stronger than normal, I may havegotten out. Of course I would have stayed 60% in stocks because of my current bullish discipline.

Information and discipline. Shew!

 

[Rolo]

imported post

shup

hehehehe

Yeah, I need a "screwed the pooch" smiley, heh. I should have left well enough alone. Now, what to do with this 30%G that I have...

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

I was off work yesterday so I did not plan to make a move. I wish I had sat down and did some calculations, the way the stocks started low yesterday, I might have moved to the S fund yesterday, instead of this morning. It is these kind of days that really put you in your place.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

The market is sure trying to test me this morning. In my comments today I said,

...if we are at least even by the deadline today (12:00 noon ET on Thursday) I will make some sort of transfer into the G fund. If we are down more than modestly, I may just stay 100% stocks.

I'd say right now we are down modestly. Now I have to figure out where"more than modestly" kicks in. :?

 

[Rolo]

imported post

hehehe...These decisions are rarely cut-and-dry.

Half of my stocks are up, and half are down. The ups outweigh the downs. :^

Does that shed any light on index funds? Probably not, but I do need to add more oil stocks.

DWCP does not seem to be able to penetrate 440 whatsoever. 1135 for SPX gets further away. Will these still be resistance lines over the next week or two, or willwe have asecond breakout that holds?

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

A little good news today. The AAIISentiment Survey came out with41% being bullish and 25% bearish (1.6 ratio). That is much better than last week's 55% bullish and 16% bearish (3.4 ratio).

As long as the market stays down this morning, I think I will wait before getting out. The way the market has been playing the up one day, down the next,Monday may be a better time to be out. So unless the market rallies in the next hour, I'll stay put.