Today

[tsptalk]

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The I fund giveth, and the I fund fund taketh away.

No move today.

 

[smine]

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Any reason to go to F?

 

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Why do you say that? I'm thinking of using F instead of G if I do get out. Although risky, bond rates are way ahead of themselves.

 

[smine]

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Just looked like a thought!

 

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The dollar looks strong so far today against the pound and the euro. Not good for the I fund although we are seeing a little rebound in the EAFE.

 

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I added this to today's comments as the results came out.

The new AAII investor sentiment survey showed 33% bullish, 43% bearish. This is good news for those looking for a bottom.

 

[puertorico]

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{bubbles ]it's that, like we are in the air or we going down ?

wHat exactly they means ?

[We're in a bubbles] {?}

 

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A bubble means prices are high, dangerously high and in danger of bursting. Techs in 2000, the current housing market, tulips in the 1600's etc., all bubbles.

Where are youhearing it PR?

 

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The choppiness I talked about in today's comments and that we are seeing today is tough to play. It's happening intraday so it's difficult to get a read on when to get in or out.

 

[puertorico]

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I was seeing CNBC,and there was a comments...

about LARRY CUTLOW.

The comment sayd...

...we're in a bubbles...Shame on Larry Cutlow and his fallower:?

[They talking about the guy in the tv program crammer/cutlow]:?

 

[tsptalk]

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I wonder what he was talking about. Housing? Oil and gas prices? I can't picture him saying the stock market is in a bubble. I repect Kudlow's views and I'm curious now.

I know his partner, Cramer, likes the market right now.

If anyone else heard what he was talking about can you please post it here?

Thanks

 

[puertorico]

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I was not paying attention.Just when a heard "bubbles":shock:

 

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smine wrote:

Any reason to go to F?

Did you go to F smine? It's having a nice day.

 

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The market sure seems like it is coiling up for some sort of move. I wish I knew which way. The indicators say up but we are probably one more bad news story from another drop.

As I said, the indicators seem to say the downside is limited at the moment. But so many people seem to be expecting a bouncethat a bounce could be short lived. That is why I think today's commentsmay tell the tale... A rally, a test (of the lows), then off to the races. The test after the rally will really put a scare in any remaining"weak" bullsremaining.

As some of you have been saying here, it may not be until the Fed does raise rates that the uncertainty is cleared and we can finally move on. Also the completion of democratic convention at the end of Julycould be another target date to get out of the way.

Tom

 

[ChuckBecker]

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Hi Tom,

I feel a rally coming. What are you thinking in terms of how far/high it could reasonably go? 10% above where we are now? That'd put the S&P in the low 1200's. Does that seem right to you?

Thanks/Chuck

 

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ChuckBecker wrote:

Hi Tom,

I feel a rally coming. What are you thinking in terms of how far/high it could reasonably go? 10% above where we are now? That'd put the S&P in the low 1200's. Does that seem right to you?

I hate to guess because that will guarantee it won't happen that way, but I was thinking more a short 2 to 3% rally to 1110-1120 area on the S&P before we come back down and test the lows again. Then, as I have been saying in the longer term comments all year, I believe we could see 20-30% gains in the second half of the year. I know it sounds a bit too optimistic now, but that's what my indicatorsshow me based on the current conditions.

 

[VictorPR]

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I aggre with you and with the recents losses , I Fund, I can not continue to wait any longer since I have lost too much waiting for it to go back up....... Any suggestions ! ! !

 

[tsptalk]

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This is a very personal decision for you. If you are not comfortable with losses then you should take a more conservative approach (more G fund).

If you heard me talk about "capitulation", you know it comes when you (and others)can't take it anymore and sell.

I don't plan to get out, if I do, not until we get a rally. I don't know when it will come, but they always do. I just hope it's before any more damage is done.

Good luck.
Tom

 

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Monday morning blues. Several world events have sent our indices down hard this morning.Iraqi Governing Council President Izzedine Salim was killedthis morning by asuicide bomber.

Now I see a bit of buying as there are rumors of nerve gasbeing found in Iraq. I don't know if this is true or if the bulls are starting rumors to help stop the bleeding.

 

[tsptalk]

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So far recent lows are holding. If I knew how the rest of the day was going to play out I would know better if I need to make a move. As long as those lows hold, I would look for an upside. If the lows break again, it could be another wave down.