TNA Trading Challenge

[userque]

TNA Challenge Results for 30 JUN 2014!

 

[userque]

TNA Challenge Results for 01 JULY 2014!

 

[userque]

Warning, Tech Talk: I think I'll modify the formulas so that the statistics, or at least the "% correct" statistic, reflect daily data, rather than counting the OPEN and CLOSE separately. I believe this change would make those numbers more meaningful to traders/observers.

 

[userque]

Warning, Tech Talk: I think I'll modify the formulas so that the statistics, or at least the "% correct" statistic, reflect daily data, rather than counting the OPEN and CLOSE separately. I believe this change would make those numbers more meaningful to traders/observers.

I expect to work on this starting the coming weekend.

 

[userque]

TNA Challenge Results for 02 JULY 2014!

 

[burrocrat]

TNA Challenge Results for 02 JULY 2014!
View attachment 29357

well, i'm even at 50/50, but bleeding cash. i think the dual open/close count maybe is not reflective of success of true holding/trades.

if one makes the decision to go 'short' whether on the open or close deadline, and then holds that trade as long as they feel the market conditions net on the day/week/whatever will be in their favor, then a penalty for not trading a volatile open including associated transaction costs for trades not made, then i think that distorts the success rate of the holding.

i think a trade should be recorded at either the open or the close when the decision is executed, but then only be scored each day once at the net close each day of previous day's holding on the close. then scored out versus last day close when position changes via a trade on either the open or the close whenever the oposite trade is flipped.

there are only 3 possible holding variables, long short or cash. and only 2 possible trading variables, open or close. i didn't pay as much attention during statistics class because i was in the middle of a nasty equity destroying divorce and child custody case at the time, but i think that equals a matrix of 18.

no offense userque, just my thoughts on the matter. surely there is an msexcel formula that could account for that? it would probably work out even less well for my positions, but a better representation of what real-world returns would be.

 

[userque]

well, i'm even at 50/50, but bleeding cash. i think the dual open/close count maybe is not reflective of success of true holding/trades.

if one makes the decision to go 'short' whether on the open or close deadline, and then holds that trade as long as they feel the market conditions net on the day/week/whatever will be in their favor, then a penalty for not trading a volatile open including associated transaction costs for trades not made, then i think that distorts the success rate of the holding.

i think a trade should be recorded at either the open or the close when the decision is executed, but then only be scored each day once at the net close each day of previous day's holding on the close. then scored out versus last day close when position changes via a trade on either the open or the close whenever the oposite trade is flipped.

there are only 3 possible holding variables, long short or cash. and only 2 possible trading variables, open or close. i didn't pay as much attention during statistics class because i was in the middle of a nasty equity destroying divorce and child custody case at the time, but i think that equals a matrix of 18.

no offense userque, just my thoughts on the matter. surely there is an msexcel formula that could account for that? it would probably work out even less well for my positions, but a better representation of what real-world returns would be.

Warning, Tech Talk: I think I'll modify the formulas so that the statistics, or at least the "% correct" statistic, reflect daily data, rather than counting the OPEN and CLOSE separately. I believe this change would make those numbers more meaningful to traders/observers.

Good point! I believe my previous post, quoted immediately above, addresses your concerns. After I make the changes (hopefully this weekend), let me know how that works for you.

...and I don't mind constructive criticism at all.

 

[userque]

...then a penalty for not trading a volatile open including associated transaction costs for trades not made, then i think that distorts the success rate of the holding.

I think I missed addressing this in my previous response.:blink:

There are no penalties for not trading a volatile open.:blink: And there are no transaction costs when no trade (change in position) is made.

I'm sure next weeks tally will be easier to understand.

 

[burrocrat]

I think I missed addressing this in my previous response.:blink:

There are no penalties for not trading a volatile open.:blink: And there are no transaction costs when no trade (change in position) is made.

I'm sure next weeks tally will be easier to understand.

maybe. if you draw it to include boobies and beer. otherwise i won't understand the new version either.

 

[userque]

SHORT for 7/7/14

 

[userque]

TNA Trading Challenge Results for 03 JULY 2014!

 

[userque]

Never got around to modifying 'the sheet' over the holiday weekend...I expect I'll finish it sometime before tomorrow's open. :blink:

 

[userque]

TNA Trading Challenge Results for 07 JULY 2014!

 

[burrocrat]

long for 07/09/14.

 

[userque]

Found and corrected a formula typo in the previous spreadsheet.

 

[userque]

TNA Trading Challenge Results for 08 JULY 2014!

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

instead of Lo and Sh (Long profitable, and short profitable # of days), I'd recommend changing them to %. So (Days long profitable) / ( Total days long) and (days short profitable) / (Total days short). Would give a better performance measurable of how each person is doing long and short. Because right now we know the Total days traded, but we don't know how many were long and how many were short.

 

[userque]

instead of Lo and Sh (Long profitable, and short profitable # of days), I'd recommend changing them to %. So (Days long profitable) / ( Total days long) and (days short profitable) / (Total days short). Would give a better performance measurable of how each person is doing long and short. Because right now we know the Total days traded, but we don't know how many were long and how many were short.

Thanks.

Good point. Those stats are carry-overs from the S-Fund Challenge. I assume Ebb uses them there, some kind of way. But here, I'll likely take your advice and implement the changes; maybe tonight, but no later than this weekend. Should be an easy modification.

UPDATE: I think Ebb used them to easily 'reconcile' the tally sheet with his records. They made catching bugs in spreadsheet easier, especially in the beginning, like where we're at now in this challenge. But screen real estate is scarce, so, only so much information can be displayed at one time.

I will likely use the percentages, but as always, I can post the detailed accounting of a trader's trades if they wish, at anytime, whenever they like. That, then, can be used for reconciliation, and to discover, and/or fix any bugs in the sheet.

 

[userque]

TNA Trading Challenge Stock Chart!

FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free
userque<==>Neural Network​

 

[burrocrat]

according to robert, 'Point of Order: Infraction of the rules, or improper decorum in speaking. Must be raised immediately after the error is made.'

in order to avoid a 'point of order' motion, may i seek clarification of the rules before i break them?

today i was holding short, but sold the close for a long position. 1 transaction fee? and if i do nothing i am long for tomorrow?

may i choose to (before the open) sell my now long position at the open strike and goto cash, or goto back short only for the cost an additional transaction fee?