Although there was some late selling on Friday, stocks still had a strong day with the Dow adding 42-points. The small caps led the way, and bonds (F-fund) moved higher as well.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 170"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.19%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) moved to new highs as it is still burning on the FOMC meeting fuel, with some added strong positive seasonality.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 tested their November high on Friday as the recent "V" bottom is reaching toward the top end of its rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today (Monday) is day -2 on this seasonality chart surrounding Christmas Day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The December chart is on day # 16, although if you work backwards, there are just 6 trading days left in the month and we'd be at day # 17 - since this year there are just 21 trading days in the month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That was all the good news and it's very hard to ignore. But if it weren't Christmas week I would be talking about some of the problems we are seeing in sentiment and other indicators. I will post some of them for the TSP Talk Plus members, but suffice it to say that it is not all roses for stocks.
Bonds had an interesting rally on Friday that saw the TLT, the long-term Treasury Bond Fund, breakout from a wedge pattern. A wedge in a down trend is more likely to break down, but sometimes they fake us out before making their actual move.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I don't know if the recent strength is is a fake-out, but we also know that pre-holiday action is often reversed after a holiday, so it would make sense.
As I mentioned last week, I will make the commentaries brief during the holiday week. I never really take a real vacation from TSP Talk, but I will lighten the load around this time. We know the deal with positive seasonal bias and analysis isn't worth as much this time of year.
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at some sentiment related data plus some starts on Friday's action. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
