Timing Strategies

[RealMoneyIssues]

Thank you for your reply. Not familiar with swag, but will have to check it out. 97.3 is a pretty big number. Must be good!

Uh, I hope your teasing with us SWAG "Seriously Wild A$$ Guess" :nuts:

Set up your own thread in the Members Account Talk.

Yeah, listen to the big bad moderator... Be nice NASA

Oh, and of course, thank you for your service !!!!

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

What strategy has worked best for keeping you in a bull market, and getting you out of a bear market? Here's how I've done over the last few years:

Wow nice work there. Do those calculations include biweekly contributions or is it based off of growth from a single, starting contribution?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wow nice work there. Do those calculations include biweekly contributions or is it based off of growth from a single, starting contribution?

k0nkuzh0n: Thanks for the reply. The calculations are based completely on the S&P 500 daily closing price, and then normalized to = 100 to easily measure and compare my timing system to the S&P 500. Every $100 in the stock market would be worth $81.47. Every $100 using my system would be worth $182.46. You can mentally move the decimal to approximate your approx TSP balance to figure out how this might have benenfited you. This is purely based on daily closing prices, and does not account for dividends. It does not use TSP data. It also assumes earning 0% interest in a cash account (hence the flat lines when going to cash). The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of each system is listed on the right side of the graph.

Hope that helps.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Uh, I hope your teasing with us SWAG "Seriously Wild A$$ Guess" :nuts: !!!!

Oooh! You guys got me. Rookie mistake. LOL! ))

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

k0nkuzh0n: Thanks for the reply. The calculations are based completely on the S&P 500 daily closing price, and then normalized to = 100 to easily measure and compare my timing system to the S&P 500. Every $100 in the stock market would be worth $81.47. Every $100 using my system would be worth $182.46. You can mentally move the decimal to approximate your approx TSP balance to figure out how this might have benenfited you. This is purely based on daily closing prices, and does not account for dividends. It does not use TSP data. It also assumes earning 0% interest in a cash account (hence the flat lines when going to cash). The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of each system is listed on the right side of the graph.

Hope that helps.

Certainly does! I just wasn't sure if the gains were weighted due to reoccuring contributions (which would obviously make most-recent gains more relevent then less-recent gains). Either way the returns are impressive, but now knowing it was free from the possible skewing of contributions it is even MORE impressive! Nice work!

I am certainly interested in the principal strategies your system is based on :nuts:

I personally try to follow trends, try to be patient and wait for great-values trades. I use the SS quite often to guage whether I should be aggressive or cautious. It has done quite well for me this year and last, but unforunately I failed to exit after the Japan Tsnumai and had to ride that one out, and more significant was when I jumped into this correction on August 1st.