Time For Some Sticky Pants

First things first, congratulation to my friend Birchtree for hitting 10,000 posts. I'm on target to join you in another 10 years. :D

It's kind of fitting that BT hit that level right now, since in my last blog I spoke about riding through some volatility. BT likes to call it wearing sticky pants, and right now appears to be a great time to put some on.

After last weeks rally,we are due for a pullback any day. The Seven Sentinels finally triggered a buy signal Thursday, and I plan to follow that buy signal through any volatility that's thrown our way. This board is pretty bulled up, and longer term that's good. If we get enough downside action to trigger a sell signal on the SS I may disregard it unless sentiment or technicals dictate otherwise. I didn't expect the last sell signal to be deep, and it wasn't, but once again the strength came back in spades before another buy signal could be triggered. So now I'm wearing sticky pants. :)

Our top 25% are holding over 90% equities and about 8% cash. That's about as bullish as we've seen since I started monitoring their action in mid-August.

Here's the Friday's Seven Sentinels charts:
$NAMO.jpg
These are all still on a buy, but NYHL came close to a sell on Friday.
$TRIN.jpg
TRIN remains on a buy, but TRINQ looks like it just did flash a sell. BPCOMPQ remains on a buy.

The SS is in buy mode right now and our top 25% are longer term bullish. I am planning on modifying my moves a bit as we move forward in an effort to keep from getting taken out of position over short term action unnecessarily. I can't explain that much beyond what I've said as I have to take it one signal at a time. But I'll be using other indicators to ascertain whether a given signal is worth following.
 
CoolHand,

I, personally, can't think of a reason why any trading system will work in an environment of high volatility.

When I was in a futures/options computerized system I made money in either slow up trends or slow down trends. I lost money quickly in choppy markets. The system traded too often to deal with the volatility in a general uptrend.

TSP is a bit different. We aren't paying large fees and we are dealing with index funds. But, when the VIX is in the 70's or even in the 50's for extended amounts of time a trading system will bounce around. Fees aren't being paid, but losses are being locked in by the trading limit.

Uuuuuggggggghhhhhhhh.
 
Boghie;bt593 said:
CoolHand,

I, personally, can't think of a reason why any trading system will work in an environment of high volatility.

When I was in a futures/options computerized system I made money in either slow up trends or slow down trends. I lost money quickly in choppy markets. The system traded too often to deal with the volatility in a general uptrend.

TSP is a bit different. We aren't paying large fees and we are dealing with index funds. But, when the VIX is in the 70's or even in the 50's for extended amounts of time a trading system will bounce around. Fees aren't being paid, but losses are being locked in by the trading limit.

Uuuuuggggggghhhhhhhh.


You're right. Volatility is creating problems for lots of mechanical traders. VIX isn't nearly as high as it was some time ago, but some of the moves are still healthy.
 
Back
Top