11/14/25
Stocks tumbled on Thursday and the losses were both shocking, yet somewhat expected. That's right. As we've talked about all week, Monday's gap was still open and clear as day, and as we know, gaps tend to get filled. We don't know when, but it's usually sooner than later, although after the recent strength and bounce back in stocks, I was a little blind-sided by the quick fill yesterday.
Perhaps we should not have been shocked that Thursday was a down day because that has been the pattern all year. This chart from Carson Investment Research shows that Thursday's have been the weak spot this year, while Mondays and Wednesday have been the winners. Friday's haven't been great, but last Friday we did get that big positive reversal day after a morning sell off.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was taken to the wood shed to the tune of 1.66%, but look what happened: Monday's gap was filled, so now the bulls have an excuse to start buying again, but momentum may have shifted back to the bears so it may not be as easy as it sounds. Small tested Friday's low yesterday, so that's a possibility here.
Why is this happening? A lot of it has to do with the Fed, both Powell and the other Fed governors, that are now sounding very hawkish. It's interesting since the jobs data has been very disappointing suggesting economic weakness, and the last CPI data we had was actually better than expected for inflation, so you would think they'd be all for a cut.
I'm wondering if they are considering that federal employees and military personnel are about to get paid a lot of back pay, and the talk of those $2000 checks going out from the tariffs collecting, which could be adding to their inflation concerns? Or they may have something else on their minds, but the odds of a cut in December came down to 49.6% yesterday.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved back above the 50-day average and that bull flag is clearly forming so it looks like the bond market is now getting ready for higher yields as well.
The dollar was down again, which helped the I-fund contain losses relative to the US stocks funds. The UUP dollar chart did fall through some rising support, but may be feeling for the support at the prior peak.
Bitcoin has been getting hit hard in recent weeks and I look at this as a sense of investor's appetite for risk. Right now it appears low. It is also a look at market liquidity, which directly impacts the demand. Bitcoin is up just 6% for the year now, after losing 13% in the last month.
This chart from Bitcoin's inception shows it remains in an uptrend with support in the low 90K's. It is currently 98K.
And this log scale chart of the same period shows how minor the recent pullback actually is for Bitcoin's history of volatility, but that means major support could be as low as 50,000.
The indices are still in modest pullback territory and the question is how much more does it need, or is this just testing previous lows and / or filling in gaps before the most bullish period of the year for stocks kicks in?
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) has come back to retest the the breakup candle from last Friday, and as I mentioned yesterday, it could break out of the bullish looking flag, or worst case, go back to the bottom of the flag. Yesterday was worst case, but of course it could get even worse if the flag does not hold here. There is now a small open gap by 2500.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply on Thursday but some weakness in the dollar helped it from taking the losses that the C and S-funds did. There is an open gap below that this may be targeting, and 66 looks like a line in the sand.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down and filled a small gap from Tuesday, but since breaking down from that bottom blue trendline, it has since formed what could be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. That's wouldn't be great and the 10-year yield may be confirming this with the bull flag we noted on that chart up top.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks tumbled on Thursday and the losses were both shocking, yet somewhat expected. That's right. As we've talked about all week, Monday's gap was still open and clear as day, and as we know, gaps tend to get filled. We don't know when, but it's usually sooner than later, although after the recent strength and bounce back in stocks, I was a little blind-sided by the quick fill yesterday.
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Perhaps we should not have been shocked that Thursday was a down day because that has been the pattern all year. This chart from Carson Investment Research shows that Thursday's have been the weak spot this year, while Mondays and Wednesday have been the winners. Friday's haven't been great, but last Friday we did get that big positive reversal day after a morning sell off.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was taken to the wood shed to the tune of 1.66%, but look what happened: Monday's gap was filled, so now the bulls have an excuse to start buying again, but momentum may have shifted back to the bears so it may not be as easy as it sounds. Small tested Friday's low yesterday, so that's a possibility here.
Why is this happening? A lot of it has to do with the Fed, both Powell and the other Fed governors, that are now sounding very hawkish. It's interesting since the jobs data has been very disappointing suggesting economic weakness, and the last CPI data we had was actually better than expected for inflation, so you would think they'd be all for a cut.
I'm wondering if they are considering that federal employees and military personnel are about to get paid a lot of back pay, and the talk of those $2000 checks going out from the tariffs collecting, which could be adding to their inflation concerns? Or they may have something else on their minds, but the odds of a cut in December came down to 49.6% yesterday.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved back above the 50-day average and that bull flag is clearly forming so it looks like the bond market is now getting ready for higher yields as well.
The dollar was down again, which helped the I-fund contain losses relative to the US stocks funds. The UUP dollar chart did fall through some rising support, but may be feeling for the support at the prior peak.
Bitcoin has been getting hit hard in recent weeks and I look at this as a sense of investor's appetite for risk. Right now it appears low. It is also a look at market liquidity, which directly impacts the demand. Bitcoin is up just 6% for the year now, after losing 13% in the last month.
This chart from Bitcoin's inception shows it remains in an uptrend with support in the low 90K's. It is currently 98K.
And this log scale chart of the same period shows how minor the recent pullback actually is for Bitcoin's history of volatility, but that means major support could be as low as 50,000.
The indices are still in modest pullback territory and the question is how much more does it need, or is this just testing previous lows and / or filling in gaps before the most bullish period of the year for stocks kicks in?
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) has come back to retest the the breakup candle from last Friday, and as I mentioned yesterday, it could break out of the bullish looking flag, or worst case, go back to the bottom of the flag. Yesterday was worst case, but of course it could get even worse if the flag does not hold here. There is now a small open gap by 2500.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply on Thursday but some weakness in the dollar helped it from taking the losses that the C and S-funds did. There is an open gap below that this may be targeting, and 66 looks like a line in the sand.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down and filled a small gap from Tuesday, but since breaking down from that bottom blue trendline, it has since formed what could be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. That's wouldn't be great and the 10-year yield may be confirming this with the bull flag we noted on that chart up top.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
