THUMB IN THE AIR INVESTOR

[Guest]

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In the grand scheme of things I really do not have time to do the reach search for the nay sayers anymore...

I will be very busy very soon. Probably will not be back here for a while.

I wish you all the best. Will be an interesting next couple of months...keep a deck chair warm for me...

Good luck and be safe.

MT

 

[Rolo]

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Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?

You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.

Also, you didn't answer my questions.

 

[Rolo]

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MarketTimer wrote:

are you freaking crazy...

umm....yes....I am. Certifiably as of a few months ago. Thank you for noticing.

 

[Rolo]

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MarketTimer wrote:

..the market all ways goes up...

Ultimately, yes, it does, just give it time.

[line]

Other than the above stipulation, I am neither bullish nor bearish at the moment; I am waiting for confirmation either way. A lower high would be a bad thing and I will take my profit. A higher high would be wonderful, followed by a small correction (a handle) andwould make my panties wet.

I still think it is 1935.


-Rolo
The Man
A Finger-In-The-Air-Investor

 

[Mike]

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I bailed on the negative job news, thinking the market would take a dump over the next couple weeks. I already rode out most of this rally, so I won't miss out on much if a higher high is made. If a lower high is made, I'm safe.

 

[rokid]

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Narc,

I was in your position a year ago, i.e. shoveling money into TSP and my wife's 401K without a clue and hoping for the best. That seemed irresponsible. As a result, I started reading everything I could find on investing.

Basically, this site is devoted to market timing, i.e. trying to be invested in the right fund at the right time. Many participants use technical analysis, i.e. the charts, to determine how to move their assets around. Others use "gut feelings". So, if you want to market time, you've come to the right place.

The other major investing approach is to establisha strategic asset allocation based on your personal situation, e.g. years to retirement, appetite for risk, amount of assets, and requirement for return. A reasonable asset allocation for a young person might be 20% F Fund, 45% C Fund, 15% S Fund, and 20% I Fund. An older person might want to hold more bonds, e.g. 50%. MT calls this approach "hope and hold". I call it the smart thing to do.

If you'd like more info on the strategic asset allocation approach, books, papers, and speeches byJohn Bogle, Burton Malkiel, Jeremy Siegel, William Bernstein, and Roger Gibson are an excellent place to start. Also check out William Bernstein's EfficientFrontier website, http://www.efficientfrontier.com/, and the Dimensional Fund Advisors website, http://www.dfaus.com/.Finally, check out Pete1's posts on this site.

Your basic approach to investing, e.g. market timing vs. strategic asset allocation, will directly impact your investing results and may determine to a large extent the level of comfort you enjoy in retirement. I wouldn't ignore the experts. It's worth a little research. Good luck.

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

I know I was hard on Sarah....but she proves my point....three months or more on this board talking about trading S selling S buying S she did not even know what the fund was or what it was indexed too...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??? I can...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....

I wish ya all the best. Call me crazy, call me nutty...but ya got to respect my calls...was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.

MT

MT, I respect what you say. Some of it is accurate. Some of it is wrong. Some of it is word salad.

Where were you hard on me? Guess I haven't seen it yet. Honey, I know the S fund better than you seem to know where your tuches is located when u wake up in the morning. (That is, if you ever get to sleep...seems like you're here 24 hrs/day )

You're a knowledgeable, opinionated guy who tells it like it is and doesn't care if he offends anyone or not. I accept that. But you seem awfully sensitive to being told that you are wrong. Unfortunately, baby...with respect to the S fund and the NASDAQ being identical...you are wrong. Try to accept it and move on.

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

And no not bash MT....



If you bash me please have your facts straight...I maked typos and my mind sometimes is (well actually all the time) 10 steps ahead of me...but please do not bash, bash, bash....research research research then have at me...

You will find NOW I will make mistakes on purpose to see who catches me...

Have you went to google yet and typed:

"Head and Shoulders Reversal Top"

"3 Peaks and a Domed House"

yet...oh the mistake on purpose thing is a safety net for my stupid mistakes I make sometimes...ha ha. What is bad I have a computer with six monitors now so I am watching six screens at once...you know what I said to myself the other day...I think I need the nine screens now....the internet is going to be like the Matrix we will be hard wired in.

Good day mates!

MT

MT

I think MT is a good example of what can happen to your brain if you spend inordinate amounts of time in trading..

 

[Pete1]

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Hello Narc:

I have a fewsuggestions for you.

1. Save as much as you can.

2. Diversify your holdings.

3. Capture the return freely offered by the market for each asset class within TSP.

4. Visit Coffeehouseinvestor.com and read the section titled "the 3 principles of investing." The aboveprinciples are explained in more depth there. Also, visit the websites listed by Rokid and read the "The Intelligent Asset Allocator" by William Bernstein.

One possiblestarting point for you would be to divide your existing account balance equally among the 5 TSP funds via an interfund transfer. In addition, request that your future contributions be dividedequally between the 5 funds via a contribution allocation request. Once per year, request an interfund transfer to rebalance the allocation to 20% in each fund. By following this rebalancing approach, you will be reliablyselling some of the highest performing asset classes each year in order to buy shares of the lowest performing asset classes for that year. Tom lists the current return of thisportfolio at (.30%). Last year, it returned around 11.50%, better than the lowest performing stock fund and the two fixed income funds. The samerebalancing techniquecould be usedfor the allocation that Rokid listed.

Read Bernstein's book

Good luck.

Pete

 

[Skip]

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MT


On your head and shoulder pattern it failed to complete the pattern for the right side
when the dow broke above the 10600 level it . however it could make a double top to the same effect....

Today we held the gains from the week whick was a positive !

Tuesif webreak above 10740 that will signal more strength in the market ,
A break below 10700 it will show more weakness, If it falls below 10600 look out...

Chart attached

JMHO

Skip

 

[NARC]

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PETE1,

WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY CAPTURING THE RETURNS FREELY OFFERED BY THE FUNDS?

I AM NOT QUITE SURE WHAT YOU MEAN BY GOING IN ALL THREE FUNDS. DO I GO 20% ACROSS THE BOARD OR UNEQUAL DISTRIBUTION, BUT AT SOME POINT IN THE YEAR SPREAD IT OUT EQUALLY? THANKS

NARC

 

[Guest]

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Rolo wrote:

Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?

You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.

Also, you didn't answer my questions.

Hey, I've mentioned this before.

And um, didn't MT say get out the 3rd week of Jan?

TT

 

[Guest]

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Skip,

Where you have right shoulder is the neck line. The higher the right shoulder goes the quicker and faster it falls. Review the CNET example I provided in another post.

A head and shoulders needs a neckline...and an attempt to top the head...just review the verbage "a quick retractment" (January 2005) and a failed attempt to break the top.

I have been reading charts for 16 years and spend a lot of time doing it...this is like tie ball...a head and shoulder top is kind of a misNOMAR...you need a good neckline also. So it should actually be called, Head and Shoulders with Neck Line.

Do not get sucked in...like all the other "experts".

Have you read that IPOs this month will breaked a five year record??? Five years ago was Feb 2000. There are 20 IPOS this week....

I know I appear to be gloom and dome but the only one that does not read the charts and the data are fools.

Good luck!

MT

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

Rolo wrote:

Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?

You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.

Also, you didn't answer my questions.

Hey, I've mentioned this before.

And um, didn't MT say get out the 3rd week of Jan?

TT

Ahh,,,that was August...December 28 I said get out now...A call made in August for five months out was pretty darn good....Who else said that the last week of December 2004. Everyone was the DOW will break DOW 11000 the first week of January 2005. A couple folks on this board were saying the S&P 500 will go up 5% the first week of January.

I sent e-mails to a couple people on this board to look at getting out the last week of December.

Good luck. The mainreason I do not like posting here is people like you...all you do is bash but you provide no investing insight. What calls have you made? I do not remember you saying the job report would come in at 140K (a major surprise) but not for the people here, huh?

Why should I waste my time posting here. Recent history...everyone thought the rally would continue today....the people that took my adviced and went 100% G are all ready saved some good money.

Good luck and stay long.

MT

 

[Guest]

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Ahh,,,that was August...December 28 I said get out now...A call made in August for five months out was pretty darn good....Who else said that the last week of December 2004. Everyone was the DOW will break DOW 11000 the first week of January 2005. A couple folks on this board were saying the S&P 500 will go up 5% the first week of January.

I sent e-mails to a couple people on this board to look at getting out the last week of December.

Good luck. The mainreason I do not like posting here is people like you...all you do is bash but you provide no investing insight. What calls have you made? I do not remember you saying the job report would come in at 140K (a major surprise) but not for the people here, huh?

Why should I waste my time posting here. Recent history...everyone thought the rally would continue today....the people that took my adviced and went 100% G are all ready saved some good money.

Good luck and stay long.

MT

LMAO, I thought about 11-13 people were on your e-mail list? I thought I read that somewhere in all your "investing insight" ramblings anyway.

I don't consider going down a penny or two a rally killer. My invest insight is my allocations. Yours is basically posting what someone else says.

Want some investment insight? Thursday will be up, be in stocks. Until then? Not much movement.

Now don't go bashing me, I'll turn my laser beam on Hawaii.

 

[Guest]

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"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."

Like the job report would come in at 140K.

Like the market will go down starting the New Year.

Like Monday (today) would be a down day.

Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.

Yes I remember everyone saying the above.

I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.

Good luck!

MT

 

[Guest]

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Skip wrote:

MT


On your head and shoulder pattern it failed to complete the pattern for the right side
when the dow broke above the 10600 level it . however it could make a double top to the same effect....

Today we held the gains from the week whick was a positive !

Tuesif webreak above 10740 that will signal more strength in the market ,
A break below 10700 it will show more weakness, If it falls below 10600 look out...

Chart attached

JMHO

Skip

Skip,

Your right shoulder is really the neckline:

 

[Guest]

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Look familiar???

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."

Like the job report would come in at 140K.

Like the market will go down starting the New Year.

Like Monday (today) would be a down day.

Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.

Yes I remember everyone saying the above.

I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.


MT

Did you say Friday would be up big? Must of missed that one I guess. Briefing.com said the job report wouldl be lower. Nice try.

Today was a big down day alright. WOW!!! Still trying to find the post where you said the market would go down on the 1st day of Jan. Oh that's right, you only e-mailed two people.

You're returns against mine? Okay, let's do it.

I'm currently 100% S. You?

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."

Like the job report would come in at 140K.

Like the market will go down starting the New Year.

Like Monday (today) would be a down day.

Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.

Yes I remember everyone saying the above.

I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.


MT

Did you say Friday would be up big? Must of missed that one I guess. Briefing.com said the job report wouldl be lower. Nice try.

Today was a big down day alright. WOW!!! Still trying to find the post where you said the market would go down on the 1st day of Jan. Oh that's right, you only e-mailed two people.

You're returns against mine? Okay, let's do it.

I'm currently 100% S. You?

Guess not.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/1160.html