THUMB IN THE AIR INVESTOR

[NARC]

imported post

HELLO EVERYONE. I AM NEW TO THE SITE AND FIND IT QUITE INTERESTING, BUT OVERWHELMING. I'VE BEEN IN THE TSP FOR ABOUT 13 YEARS NOW AND STILL DON'T HAVE CLUE AS TO WHAT I AM DOING. I CONTRIBUTE THE MAX,STICK MY THUMB IN THE AIR, AND HOPE I MADE THE RIGHT DECISION. THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY! TODAY I WENT 50% C AND 50% I. IT WAS A GUT FEELING. SEE WHAT I MEAN.

I AM NOT GREEDY, BUT I AM WILLING TO TAKE SOME CHANCES. HECK, I'LL STAY IN UNTIL THE MANDATORY 57 1/2 AND THAT IS A LONG TIME OUT.

RECOMMENDATIONS SOUGHT ON ALLOCATIONS. ALSO, I READ A LITTLE ABOUT CONSULTANTS/MANAGERS. ANY RECOMMENDATIONS ON ONE THAT IS FAMILIAR WITH TSP OR USE TO WORKING W/FED EMPLOYEES? ANY GOOD INVESTMENT GUIDES OUT THERE FOR TSP EMPLOYEES? (BESIDES YOU FINE PEOPLE)

NEXT WEEK I WILL HEAR FROM SOMEONE WHO WORKS FOR THE FEDERAL EMPLOYEES BENEFIT GROUP. GOOD? BAD? WHAT'S UP WITH THE GROUP?

THANKS ALL AND HAVE A GOOD ONE.

NARC

 

[Guest]

imported post

This is a good example...13 years in TSP and he does not know what he is doing...this is a good reason not to have private accounts...you will force people to go long the stock market to be able to retire...theme from jaws here....the hedge fund guys are going to be ripping off limps....probably 60% off the population will just pick one stock fund and not even make a change...that is what it is like in the 401Ks...100% invested in the NASDAQ is extremely common...most aggressive because I got 20 years to go...

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

NARC wrote:

THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY!

Welcome NARC! We all have different strategies. You have to find one that works for you. If you have time, check out the entire site. The message board is filled withquestions and answersabout everything you can probably think of. The longer term comments ([url]www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html[/url]) gives my outlook for the next year or so. My daily market comments ([url]www.tsptalk.com/comments.html[/url]) tell what I think about the current market situation.

I, and several members, post their allocations for all to see. Some explain why they are making the move. Since everyone's situation is different, I rarely say "Do this". I just tell you what I am doing and why. Then you have to make your own decision. If you read enough, you will get an idea of the type of approach you want to take to your TSP account.

Thanks for joining us. After going over the site, let us know if you have any questions.

Tom

 

[Guest]

imported post

Narc,

That is my normal greeting on this board....using you as an example...sorry your I have been in TSP for 13 years just makes me sad that will be the sole retirement for a lot of folks STARTING EARLY 2006.

Also I was a little taking back by your tag, Narc.

Tom will shove ya in the right direction...however I would like to add a site for ya since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told.

Fundadvice.com

You will probably want to research Hold and Hope....until you are comfortable with timing if you choice.

Good luck, welcome on board...hope you do not fall into the water.

MT

 

[NARC]

imported post

MarketTimer:

THANKS FOR THE QUICK RESPONSE. I APPRECIATE THE ADVICE/RECOMMENDATIONS. THANK YOU.

G-MAN WAS TAKEN AND I AM A LITTLE SHORT OF IMAGINATION TONIGHT, SO I WENT WITH NARC.

THANKS AGAIN,

NARC

 

[NARC]

imported post

TOM:

GREAT SITE AND THANK YOU FOR THE WELCOME. I TOOK A LOOK AT THE COMMENTS AND OUTLOOK SECTIONS. THANKS FOR THE ADVICE AND I'LL BE TALKIN TO YA.

NARC

 

[NARC]

imported post

MarketTimer,

Is Hold And Hope a book or stratagey? Thanks.

Narc

 

[Guest]

imported post

It is a pipe dream...ha ha.

Hold and hope is what I call...buy and hold.

Please go the site I told you...they will walk through everyone...if you have any questions please send me an e-mail...I will be glad to help you out.

Have a great day!

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told. MT

sorry couldn't resist

 

[NARC]

imported post

MT,

:^

 

[Guest]

imported post

Wonder,

No worries...I am really do not want to be rude....I just feel so sorry that our high schools do not even teach us to balance a check book yet they expect us to manager our own investments accounts...right out the block...

As you can see by the new folks...13, 15, 16 in the govt retirement system they do not have any training at all.

Social security reform will be the largest financial disaster of our life time...standing around the water cooler...when I am 95 I should be able to retire if the market goes up this year....when you make retirement on hope, need and greed that is right before a major market crash.

Once again...I am being a jerk because I am trying to get you start researching for your future and your retirement...I have found if I am a nice guy nothing happens I get results by dripping the facts on ya....

I truly care about you or I would not spend my time here.....

I am not saying I know everything...but I am saying I know what is going on and what is upcoming...as you can tell I have been very vocal in the last couple days...because just like in 2000 we got the buy on dips things there got to be one more rally thing going on again....history does repeat itself.

I know I was hard on Sarah....but she proves my point....three months or more on this board talking about trading S selling S buying S she did not even know what the fund was or what it was indexed too...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??? I can...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....

I wish ya all the best. Call me crazy, call me nutty...but ya got to respect my calls...was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.

MT

 

[Spaf]

imported post

MT...Kind of got to agree with you. That is what we should be doing is helping others out. Toms home page pretty much sums it up "How is your Thrift Savings Plan account performing? A well allocated TSP account could make a major difference in your balance when you retire."

How many TSP participants are just in one or two funds, how many know how to play the market and protect assets?

Yea! we want our funds to grow, but we also want to help others.

Being your own investor for social security, might stur some education in schools.

So for all the new folks: Read through the TSP site to learn about the funds and how to allocate and transfer, also read about the funds. Stay on this site also and learn it's navigation. Listen, and when you think you got the feel of things, jump in. If you have any questions, ask! There is no stupid question, cause we were all there one time or another. And, WELCOME!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Guest]

imported post

And no not bash MT....



If you bash me please have your facts straight...I maked typos and my mind sometimes is (well actually all the time) 10 steps ahead of me...but please do not bash, bash, bash....research research research then have at me...

You will find NOW I will make mistakes on purpose to see who catches me...

Have you went to google yet and typed:

"Head and Shoulders Reversal Top"

"3 Peaks and a Domed House"

yet...oh the mistake on purpose thing is a safety net for my stupid mistakes I make sometimes...ha ha. What is bad I have a computer with six monitors now so I am watching six screens at once...you know what I said to myself the other day...I think I need the nine screens now....the internet is going to be like the Matrix we will be hard wired in.

Good day mates!

MT

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

Great a on line poker...it is hard to bluff yourself...if you know what I mean......raise, double raise, go over the top and everyone folds and ya take the blinds...yum yum...the three folks are ME.

:shock:

 

[Spaf]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

I truly care about you or I would not spend my time here.....


MT

MT....I would like to know about selling short.

You have the experience. Start a thread on educating us. Some of us have accounts with brokers. Hey help us out! :^

Rgds Spaf

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Welcome, NARC!

Just remember: it is spelled M-a-r-k-e-t-T-i-m-e-r, but it is pronounced "Chick-en-Lit-tle"



MarketTimer wrote:

No worries...I am really do not want to be rude....I just feel so sorry that our high schools do not even teach us to balance a check book yet they expect us to manager our own investments accounts...right out the block...

1. I think balancing a checkbook is pretty self-evident and really does not require state-sponsored formal education.

2. My high-school did teach how to balance a checkbook. I wonder how many of my peers failed to successfully balance their checkbooks in spite of it. 'Education' and 'responsiblility' are not synonymous.

3. I learned, and continue to learn,what my investment choices are and how to manage them all on my own. Why? Because it is my money and I, solely, amresponsible for it.

4. Ifone does not want to manage his own investments, then one should hire a professional, much like one usually does forhis own plumbing, auto service and repair, roofing, surgery, etc.

5. They do not teach parenting in high-school, but if you have children, you are expected to parent them. (except in California.)

MarketTimer wrote:

Social security reform will be the largest financial disaster of our life time...

Umm...no...Socialism Security itself is the largest financial disaster, if anything. It just took several years for people to notice. The Raw Deal. heh

MarketTimer wrote:

...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....

1. No, it doesn't. Working life (20-40 years) * contributions * stock market average (~11%) = a very nice retirement. No trading required whatsoever.

2. Mutual Funds were never designed for trading.

3. Anyone with a mastery of technical indicators such as yours would be trading stocks, not funds, for above-board returns in any market condition.

MarketTimer wrote:

Call me crazy, call me nutty

I wouldn't. And I would know. muaha. :h

was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.

It hasn't gotten 'bad'. We have a nice, healthy W forming right now. The market hasn't declined yet. You keep saying that we are in a bear market but my TSP made 12+% in 2004; what did yours make? Were you in stocks in the last few months of 2004 or were you waiting for the sky--I mean market--to fall?

My TSP is up 9.6% over the past 1 year and I've kept my # shares for the next run-up...or...will take my profit if the market does turn (which it has not done yet). You try to ding saraho but her TSP returns kicked all our butts. Money talks, and--you know that other thing--that walks...

 

[Guest]

imported post

Healthy W...

Break out the crayons...Ok Johnny....

are you freaking crazy...that is a like the clearest example of a head and shoulders top you will every see...it is like text book...........

I want you to stay long so that us hands on deck can hear your pain...

text book head and shoulders...it is like perfect:

left shoulder, head, right shoulder...elbow, hand, knee, floor...I can say no more..

 

[Guest]

imported post

Head and Shoulders 101 - does the belowsound familiar???? Schools out...lets party....

The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again(continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.)

God this is like whiffle ball: just hit it off the tie...short the hell out of everything:

 

[Guest]

imported post

Had to use an example from 2000...just had to...because we are in Feb 2000 right now....

Rolo - You be the man!

The data is wrong, the charts are wrong, MT is wrong...0/3...walk the plank. Thrash around...bleed slowly...

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

AS AN ADDED BONUS - WE ARE AT THE RIGHT SHOULDER NOW....if you can not read the chart...ding ding....ICEBERG ahead...

Rolo - I beg you please stay long....I love to hear the stories of wooo...if I only bailed WAHHHHHHHHHHHH....I really to here they from the people that I said here is the data, here is the chart...make up your own mind...I AM BULLISH, everything is great...one more rally...the market all ways goes up...I do not want to miss out on the next rally....

The higher the right shoulder ---- answer...the quick and deeper the decline....KEEP BUYING INTO THE RALLY, BUY, BUY, BUY. High for 2005 has been hit...

I will be on deck.

MT