This Week in Stocks: 9/15 - 9/21/07

[Show-me]

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 14-Sep-07 13:35 ET

There will be no shortage of meaningful affairs in the coming week, with a host of economic data on the docket and a number of widely held companies scheduled to report their results.

The most important event on the calendar, however, will be the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. Given the extent of uncertainty in the financial markets, due to the downturn in the U.S. housing market and meltdown in subprime lending, market participants will be looking for a rate cut to help support economic growth and assuage concerns of worsening financial conditions.

With inflation risk still a concern, the August PPI and CPI reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will also garner attention. Also on the economic calendar, August Housing Starts and Permits will be closely watched, as the slowdown in the housing market continues to unwind and weigh on the economy.

On the earnings front, a number of financial companies, including Lehman Brothers (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bear Stearns (BSC), and Goldman Sachs, are expected to report their results during the week. These reports will be scrutinized extensively as investors look for clarification on the firms' exposure to the subprime problems.

Other notable companies reporting their results will be Best Buy (BBY), FedEx (FDX), and Oracle (ORCL).
________________________________________________________________
Monday, September 17:

• Earnings: Adobe Systems (ADBE)
• Economic Data: NY Empire State Index
• Events: KCI Analyst Meeting; ADVS's 2nd Annual Investor Day; Former Fed Chairman Greenspan on NBC's "Today" show; Greenspan speaks with Maria Bartiromo on CNBC
• Conferences: Bank of America Securities 37th Annual Investor Conference; ThinkEquity Partners 5th Annual Growth Conference; Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. Investor Summit 2007
• Fed Speakers: None

Tuesday, September 18:

• Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Best Buy (BBY), Kroger (KR), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Darden Restaurants (DHI)
• Economic Data: August PPI and Core PPI; Net Foreign Purchases; FOMC Policy Statement
• Events: FOMC Policy Announcement; AHS Analyst Meeting; WM 2007 Seattle Investor Day; AMB Investor Analyst Forum
• Conferences: CMI 2007 Investor Conference; A.G. Edwards Emerging Growth Conference; Bank of America Securities 37th Annual Investor Conference; CL King and Associates Best Ideas Conference; ThinkEquity Partners 5th Annual Growth Conference; Goldman Sachs Communacopia XVI Conference; Keybanc Capital Markets Basic Materials & Packaging Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Wednesday, September 19:

• Earnings: Dress Barn (DBRN), General Mills (GIS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Herman Miller (MLHR)
• Economic Data: August CPI and Core CPI; August Housing Starts and Permits; Crude Inventories
• Events: None
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: None

Thursday, September 20:

• Earnings: Bear Stearns (BSC), ConAgra (CAG), FedEx (FDX), Goldman Sachs (GS), A.G. Edwards (AGE), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL)
• Economic Data: Initial Claims; Leading Indicators; Philadelphia Fed Index
• Events: Greenspan speaks with Al Hunt on Bloomberg television; Greenspan speaks with Charlie Rose on PBS television
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee

Friday, September 21:

• Earnings: Novamerican Steel (TONS)
• Economic Data: None
• Events: None
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser makes opening remarks at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20070914133654LookingAhead

 

[offtrack]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070916/earns_brokerages.html?.v=3


AP
4 Investment Banks Will Report Earnings
Sunday September 16, 3:00 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer 4 Wall Street Investment Bank Earnings Reports Could Provide Glimpse Into Global Market Health

* * *

"If history is any gauge, you'll have to wait for their quarterly filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission to find out what is really going on with these companies," Bove said. "It's going to be tough to make judgments." Quarterly reports filed to the SEC, also known as 10-Qs, must be submitted to the regulator within 45 days of the end of the quarter. These documents typically offer more detail than what is released in earnings reports


This is going to be an interesting week. Plus a triple witching on Friday? Wife took week off and I'm thinking of going on vacation

 

[Show-me]

AP
Northern Rock Share Trading Suspended
Monday September 17, 8:54 am ET
By Robert Barr, Associated Press Writer

Trading Suspended Briefly in Troubled British Mortgage Company Northern Rock

LONDON (AP) -- Shares of Northern Rock PLC, one of Britain's largest mortgage lenders, tumbled another 30 percent Monday as customers, driven by fears of insolvency, made a run on the bank and withdrew billions.

Treasury Secretary Alistair Darling sought to assure depositors that their money was safe, even as former U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan warned of potential trouble for Britain's booming housing market.

Trading in the bank's shares was briefly suspended Monday morning, but not before they tumbled 140 pence to 298 pence ($2.81 to $5.98), on top of a 31 percent fall Friday. By late morning, shares hovered around 300 pence.

Northern Rock, Britain's fifth-largest mortgage lender, disclosed on Friday that it had received emergency funding from the Bank of England after other banks balked at loaning it cash in the wholesale money markets.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070917/britain_northern_rock.html?.v=12

 

[Show-me]

Birchtree is Ben Stein disquised as a tree.

I figured it out Birchtree is Ben Stein disguised as a tree. :laugh: :nuts:

Ben Stein How Not to Ruin Your Life


Recession-Proof Your Investment Strategy

by Ben Stein

Posted on Thursday, September 13, 2007, 12:00AM

Now for some vital news about what to do differently with your investments, as we may or may not be sliding into a recession.

In a word, buy (and keep buying) broad indexes of foreign and domestic common stocks.

Lunch Is on the Gunslingers

Here's why. Unless you're a short-term trader -- in which case you shouldn't pay much attention to my words at all -- you're looking for how your results will be in 10 or 20 years. Your results will be better if you have an entry point at which your cost is low. Your cost will be lower if stocks have been hammered by short-term traders selling out of panic because of a recession.


That's one of the few "free lunches" -- as my investment guru pal Phil DeMuth calls them -- you get from the stock market. If short-term traders allow you to buy stocks at a discount, thank them, take a polite bow, and go out and buy.

The short-term trader will bail out of stocks if there's higher unemployment, temporarily lower corporate profits, slowdowns in housing sales, worries about mergers and acquisitions, and fears about credit availability. That's fine -- it's what short-term traders on Wall Street do. They hope to be a fraction of a second ahead of the other gunslingers and make a buck that way.


Focus on the Future

To you, the long-term investor, all that is just static. You don't care about what corporate profits will be in the second quarter of 2008 -- you care what they'll be in 2018. The only reference to 2008 in your calculations is if that year's profit disappointments drive down the prices of the Dow, the Spyders, the EFA, or the EEM and allow you to buy in cheap.

The short-term player desperately worries about what the employment numbers are. You as a humanitarian are concerned about the well being of others and wish them happiness and prosperity. But if unemployment rises and stocks fall, you buy in at the lower price and show a handsomer gain by 2018 or 2028 or whatever your anticipated sell date is.


You have no interest at all in selling if employment falls. Why should you? It's irrelevant to you -- except, again, if it lowers your buy prices.


Buy in the Fall

What if the United States goes into a painful recession? Sadly, people will suffer. But stocks will probably fall. Typically, their absolute price falls and their price/earnings (P/E) ratio falls.

To put this as plainly as possible, this is a good time to buy stocks. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent that if you buy when stocks' P/E is below its 15-year moving average, you'll make far more money than you would if you bought at the economic peak, when P/E's are high. So, unless you're out of money to buy with during the recession, you buy. You don't go on margin to buy, and you don't re-mortgage your home to buy. But if you're employed and have money to invest, you buy.

Recessions in the post-World War II world are generally short; they end after about two quarters. Within about 15 months, stocks have moved from their last peak to their next peak. This is an average -- each case varies, but in every case the very long-term investor is better off if he or she keeps on buying through the recession.


Wait for the Morning After

I wouldn't try and wait until the absolute bottom of the downturn is reached to buy. No one can predict with any certainty when that'll be -- it's visible only in the rearview mirror. But if you've been reading this column for a while, you know that I urge you to buy every month and add more every month. Just keep doing that through the recession, if it comes.


I know you'll be scared. I know wild-eyed TV commentators will urge you to panic. Don't do it -- just keep on buying and wait. There's got to be a morning after, even if it takes years, and on that morning you'll be a happy guy or gal.


Lower prices because of sort-term fear are one of life's great gifts to the long-term investor. Don't look that gift horse in the mouth.

Ben Stein has no financial interest in the products mentioned in this column.

 

[fedgolfer]

with only an hour left of trading today, there doesn't seem to be any across the board institutional/heavy volume buying heading into the Fed... has me worried, we could see further distribution even if we get the .25 basis points -- and see sell the news. All the upticks the past couple of weeks have been retail buying. Why aren't the big boys buying? Hmmmmm?

 

[Spaf]

Taking a look at volume i.e.,[$SPX] the volume has been low since the mid part of August.

I noticed that squirrels were gathering nuts earlier this year, maybe there is a connection........:blink:

.........Why aren't the big boys buying? Hmmmmm?

 

[fedgolfer]

are the big boys shorting in large volume? Can't tell through just QID.

 

[Show-me]

with only an hour left of trading today, there doesn't seem to be any across the board institutional/heavy volume buying heading into the Fed... has me worried, we could see further distribution even if we get the .25 basis points -- and see sell the news. All the upticks the past couple of weeks have been retail buying. Why aren't the big boys buying? Hmmmmm?

The big boys know that the FOMC will do what they want to. FOMC has tanked markets before and the BB know all they can do is kick and cry like babies on CNBC while the FED looks at more data.

They are in the dark as much as we are.

 

[fedgolfer]

... I guarantee some of them know what the Fed will do tomorrow. They're just positioning themselves in a transparent way, whether its gold, derivatives, currencies or whatever. They just can't make it all too obvious before it goes public so there's no investor/public outcry for an investigation.

Oh, how do I know this? Becuase if Eddie Murphy can fix the orange crop play, then Abby Joseph Cohen can figure out a way to take a position on the Fed Funds Rate.

 

[vectorman]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong. If the Fed does lower interest rates tomorrow, the US will be the first and only country to lower rates so far this year. Its seems the other countries have either raised or held the same rate recently. Any comments.

 

[ATCJeff]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong. If the Fed does lower interest rates tomorrow, the US will be the first and only country to lower rates so far this year. Its seems the other countries have either raised or held the same rate recently. Any comments.

Internationals haven't lower beacuse they're trying to control growth.

 

[vectorman]

Internationals haven't lower beacuse they're trying to control growth.

That's my point. It's interesting that the good old USA once known to have the greatest economy in the world is the only one needing to lower interest rates. Other world leaders have to be wondering what kind of shape is the US economy really in. Check this out...NE TN, 1 gal of name brand milk over 5 dollars. Sure.... lets keep excluding the inflated price of food out of PPI and CPI. It doesn't hurt the average American pocket.:suspicious:

 

[clester]

That's my point. It's interesting that the good old USA once known to have the greatest economy in the world is the only one needing to lower interest rates. Other world leaders have to be wondering what kind of shape is the US economy really in. Check this out...NE TN, 1 gal of name brand milk over 5 dollars. Sure.... lets keep excluding the inflated price of food out of PPI and CPI. It doesn't hurt the average American pocket.:suspicious:

Good point. Maybe we won't lower rates. Inflation is still a problem.

 

[Show-me]

Inflation IS STILL a problem, but the Fed has a responsibility to keep the economy going. Stagflation is a hard animal to tame and even with inflation you don't want growth to slow to much.

Glad I'm not Ben. Not matter what he does it will not be enough or in time.

 

[offtrack]

AP
Lehman 3Q Profit Dips 3 Percent
Tuesday September 18, 8:12 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

Lehman Brothers Third-Quarter Profit Dips on Mortgage, Credit Woes

NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit fell 3 percent, as the nation's fourth-largest investment bank was hurt by fallout from the subprime-mortgage crisis.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/earns_lehman.html?.v=1

Lehman better than some expected but still not enough details on bad paper

 

[Show-me]

Wow, did they leak the Fed statement to the UK and EZ?

 

[weatherweenie]

Wow, did they leak the Fed statement to the UK and EZ?

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.5. Futures rise on Lehman earnings above average forecast. PPI -1.4% for August is seen as beneficial, but will be temporary as the 6.6% drop in energy prices is not sustainable. Core rate was in line with expectations at +0.2%. Oil is at $80.76 a barrel.

 

[James48843]

U.S. Home Foreclosures Soar in August, Up 36 Percent From July

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The number of foreclosure filings reported in the U.S. last month more than doubled versus August 2006 and jumped 36 percent from July, a trend that signals many homeowners are increasingly unable to make timely payments on their mortgages or sell their homes amid a national housing slump.

A total of 243,947 foreclosure filings were reported in August, up 115 percent from 113,300 in the same month a year ago, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Tuesday. There were 179,599 foreclosure filings reported in July.

http://news.yahoo.com

 

[James48843]

Alright- you tell me.

Is someone cooking the books?

First, we have a jump in the price of oil, now up over 80 bucks a barrel. Then we have this minimum wage thingy kick in, and push up low end wages (I'm not saying that's bad, I'm just saying it's affecting the low end price things like fast food, etc). And then we have prices in general that seem to be going up.

And then they report that wholesale prices went DOWN.

Either someone is cooking the books, or......

Our economy is a heck of a lot softer than anyone is admiting.

Do you think anyone is cooking the books?

 

[fedgolfer]

Do you think anyone is cooking the books?

It's pretty obvious, wouldn't you say?!