This Week in Stocks: 7/21 - 7/27/07

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sort by newest Sort by date
... several months ago I heard a fund manager from Fortress Investment Group (FIG), spouting out his thoughts on the the summer market. I keep hearing it in the back of my head and kicking myself. He said something to the effect of, "we're positioning ourselves for 1450 in the s&p, with some spikes in the VIX around 22 maybe 24." Where I should have taken action was when he said, "and we're market makers." I'm bag holding the I fund and hoping 1450 is the depth of this abyss.
 
fedgolfer said:
... several months ago I heard a fund manager from Fortress Investment Group (FIG), spouting out his thoughts on the the summer market. I keep hearing it in the back of my head and kicking myself. He said something to the effect of, "we're positioning ourselves for 1450 in the s&p, with some spikes in the VIX around 22 maybe 24." Where I should have taken action was when he said, "and we're market makers." I'm bag holding the I fund and hoping 1450 is the depth of this abyss.
Click to expand...

Last week I heard on one of CNBC's evening shows a manager saying how they were buying puts as a defensive measure.

Shoulda, coulda, woulda, but didn't.
 
I guess if we listen to enough of that stuff we hear almost everything to fit any possible scenario, up or down.
 
News flash: Maria Bartiromo is bullish! :rolleyes: She was downright obnoxious today after the close fighting the bullish side against those who think the market must first digest these credit problems.

The other lady in the morning, I forget her name at the moment, was calling the sellers lemmings. Bob Pisani asked if she was talking about the momentum traders. :rolleyes: I guess if you sell when the market goes down you are a lemming, but if you buy when the market is moving up, you are an investor.
 
tsptalk said:
News flash: Maria Bartiromo is bullish! :rolleyes: She was downright obnoxious today after the close fighting the bullish side against those who think the market must first digest these credit problems.

The other lady in the morning, I forget her name at the moment, was calling the sellers lemmings. Bob Pisani asked if she was talking about the momentum traders. :rolleyes: I guess if you sell when the market goes down you are a lemming, but if you buy when the market is moving up, you are an investor.
Click to expand...


I'm watching it right now and she is coming off like a big idiot. The most honest guy on CNBC is Rick Santelli. Jim Cramer needs to get smacked by a 2X4.:D The other lady was probably Eron Bernett.
 
Being that she's (Maria) the head cheerleader on that show, the only thing missing were her pom-poms.
 
tsptalk said:
Being that she's (Maria) the head cheerleader on that show, the only thing missing were her pom-poms.
Click to expand...

While she has a cute face, her ass is way too big to be a cheerleader.:laugh:

Let's hear what Kudlov has to say about today...
 
350zCommTech said:
Let's hear what Kudlov has to say about today...
Click to expand...

I think he posts on this board under the alias, Birchtree.

What we really need is for Steve Leaseman to hold up the "Markets Love Ben" sign... that thing has a 100% success rate. When's the next Fed Speak, 8/7?
 
fedgolfer said:
I think he posts on this board under the alias, Birchtree.

What we really need is for Steve Leaseman to hold up the "Markets Love Ben" sign... that thing has a 100% success rate. When's the next Fed Speak, 8/7?
Click to expand...

Yup, 8/7. A one day meeting. While a rate cut will definitely help this market, I don't think they will do it in the near future. They will wait until it's too late. I have a feeling they will protect the dollar first.
 
tsptalk said:
Being that she's (Maria) the head cheerleader on that show, the only thing missing were her pom-poms.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what she is - a very attractive cheerleader with a journalism degree and a rich investor husband. This is her background as described in wikipedia. Considering who she is married to, IMHO, I wouldn't exactly characterize her as someone who is impartial. I think she has a vested interest in being bullish.

Bartiromo graduated from New York University with a BA degree in journalism and a minor in economics.
On 13 June 1999, Bartiromo married Jonathan Steinberg, son of investor Saul Steinberg. Jonathan ("Jono") is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Individual Investor Group, a financial services company in Manhattan. [1]
 
Thursday, July 26, 2007
What Is The VIX Saying Right Now


Above is a 3 year weekly chart of the S&P500 and below that is the VIX. As you can see when the VIX gets above 16 it usually coincides with lows in the S&P.

If you look at the previous six major buying opportunities in the S&P over the last 3 years, the VIX pinpointed every single one of them with a reading above 16.

There are a few ways to play this if you are looking to buy. You can simply buy at support which is around the 1450 to 1460 area or you can wait for the market to turn back up by making a one or two week high. I prefer to let the market turn back up a little before I get involved.

As a trader it's important to be consistent with what you are doing. Last March when the market sold off and the VIX shot up above 18, I thought about buying this market but I was actually bearish because I thought the potential unwinding of the Yen carry trade would cause the market to sell off. I totally missed a HUGE buying opportunity because I began looking at so many different intermarket relationships that I lost track of the most important thing in trading, and that is the TREND.

The trend is up, there is fear in the market(VIX) and I know the commercial traders have been buying so my strategy is to look for reasons to buy.
Posted by Kevin


http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2007/07/what-is-vix-saying-right-now.html
 
Henry Paulson is still saying sub-prime is contained. That's an obvious lie, but nobody expects these guys to yell fire anyway. Which is good because I'm in the S fund today.:D


He also mentioned that the strong dollar is in our best interest and we have strong growth. I agree with him about the dollar but not the growth. And like I've been saying, they will protect the dollar first. Don't expect a rate cut until it's too obvious.
 
I hope my guess is correct that we'll get a short term bounce off yesterday's ugliness. This is the first time I've been in the market since last July, and I'm definitely nervous about it.

I think we're one or two bad headlines away from falling back to the long-term trendline for support... which I believe is at least another 50 point drop in the S&P.

I guess one mixed blessing about yesterday is with all the movement to T-bills, the 10 year yield collapsed. That will put some downward pressure on mortgage rates and the wide variety of consumer loans pegged to the 10yr.
 
350, check out the link I posted under the tech analysis section on worden bros TA. Its a diatribe on subprime. Although its a lot of assumption, it really shows how deep subrime can go and what a firm like Bear Stearns would do to have to get out danger of billions of dollars of bad loans.
 
Caution:

WATCH FOR DEAD CATS

dclogo.jpg
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

NewsFeeder
Stocks in Asia to Advance After Trade Progress: Markets Wrap
Replies
0
Views
490
NewsFeeder
NewsFeeder
Show-me
  • Locked
This Week in Stocks: 9/8 - 9/14/07
2 3
Replies
42
Views
6K
Show-me
Show-me
Show-me
  • Locked
This Month in Stocks: 12/1 - 12/28/07
2 3
Replies
51
Views
7K
Show-me
Show-me
Show-me
  • Locked
This Week in Stocks: 7/7 - 7/13/07
2 3
Replies
50
Views
8K
Show-me
Show-me
Show-me
  • Locked
This Month in Stocks: 11/3 - 11/30/07
4 5 6
Replies
105
Views
14K
Oldcoin
Oldcoin
Back
Top