This Month in Stocks: 11/3 - 11/30/07

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The Week Ahead

Last Update: 02-Nov-07 09:30 ET

The end of the third quarter reporting period is getting closer, but that doesn't mean there is any rest for the weary as the coming week brings another large batch of results.

Cisco (CSCO) is the headliner in the coming week, although the reports from AIG (AIG), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), News Corp. (NWS.A), Qualcomm (QCOM), General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will also command added attention.

The economic calendar should fade some from the spotlight since it is populated with only a handful of reports that aren't expected to be big drivers of trading action. The ISM Services report kicks things off on Monday, while the preliminary reading for the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday rounds out the week.

The economy, though, will remain a hot topic of debate with Fed Chairman Bernanke adding to the debate on Thursday with testimony on the U.S. economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee.

Separately, policy decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday should be closely watched in light of the Fed's recent rate cut and signal that it may be done cutting rates for the time being.

________________________________________________________________

Monday, November 5:

Earnings: Burger King (BKC), Cardinal Health (CAH), Entergy (ETR), Sysco (SYY), Anadarko (APC), Sun Microsystems (JAVA), Dun & Bradstreet (DNB)

Economic Data: October ISM Services Index

Events: None

Conferences: None

Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Mishkin speaks at Risk Conference in New York, Fed Governor Kroszner speaks on sub-prime mortgages in Virginia.

Tuesday, November 6:

Earnings: Archer-Daniels (ADM), Valero (VLO), El Paso Corp. (EP), Emerson (EMR), Expeditors Int'l (EXPD), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Nortel (NT), Avis (CAR)

Economic Data: None

Events: Flextronics Analyst Meeting

Conferences: None

Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at microfinance conference in San Antonio

Wednesday, November 7:

Earnings: American Tower (AMT), Devon Energy (DVN), DirecTV (DTV), Fluor (FLR), Expedia (EXPE), Harrah's (HET), Sara Lee (SLE), Time Warner (TWX), American Int'l Group (AIG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), News Corp. (NWS.A)

Economic Data: Preliminary Third Quarter Productivity report, September Wholesale Inventories, September Consumer Credit, Crude Inventories (week ending Nov. 2)

Events: Bank of England Policy Meeting (2-day)

Conferences: None

Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed President Lacker speaks to credit portfolio managers in New York, Fed Governor Warsh speaks to economists in New York, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks in Alabama regarding U.S. economic outlook.

Thursday, November 8:

Earnings: Cablevision (CVC), Clear Channel Communication (CCU), Dean Foods (DF), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Walt Disney (DIS)

Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Oct. 27)

Events: European Central Bank Policy Meeting, Bank of England Policy Meeting, October same store sales reports

Conferences: None

Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Joint Economic Committee

Friday, November 9:

Earnings: Ameren (AEE), Huntsman (HUN), Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF)

Economic Data: October Export and Import Prices, September Trade Balance, Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November

Events: None

Conferences: None

Fed Speakers: None

--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20071102093207LookingAhead
 
Bernanke back on the Capitol Hill hot seat
Trade, productivity, import prices top economic numbers to be released.
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov 4, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, perhaps for the last time in a while, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will head to Capitol Hill to give his views on the economy.

Bernanke's appearance in front of the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday could be the highlight of the coming week's economic news. Other Fed speakers will fan out to talk about derivatives and mortgages, while the economic data calendar will be fairly light.

The Fed is said to be exploring ways of being more open about its operations, and Bernanke's testimony on Thursday will be a good test of that policy. Some economists expect the chairman to say a lot; others are ratcheting down their expectations for any ground-breaking news.


"We think this event will come close to the chairman's semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in terms of significance," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank. "The market will be especially keen to hear an explanation" about the decision to cut rates and to signal a pause, wrote economists for Lehman Bros. "However, history suggests they could be disappointed."

Bernanke's testimony will probably hew closely to the statement released after the meeting, which suggested that further rate cuts would come only if the economy worsens more than the Fed expects. Recent statements by Fed officials have had a nuanced "on the one hand this, and on the other hand that" quality to them that defies the kind of simple explanations Bernanke will be asked to give on Capitol Hill. The Fed is watchful, upbeat and realistic about the dangers that may lurk ahead and the Fed's limited ability to influence events.

Bernanke may also be asked about changes to the Fed's communication policies, as described in recent news reports, including a story in The Wall Street Journal. The Fed is looking at releasing an updated economic forecast four times a year, rather than just twice a year. The forecast could look out three years instead of just two, a sort of backhanded way of adopting an unofficial inflation target. If the Fed is going to release its forecasts more often, Bernanke's appearance might be a good time to start that practice.

The data
None of the data scheduled in the coming week are top tier numbers, but there are some interesting tidbits.

Third-quarter productivity numbers will look very good, especially in comparison with the recent past. The longer-term outlook doesn't look as good. On the other hand, the trade gap, which has been narrowing, should grow a bit in September. In this case, the longer-term outlook still looks favorable. The consumer sentiment numbers are expected to be soft again, but not alarmingly so.

The week starts with the Institute for Supply Management index for nonmanufacturing sectors on Monday. This is the poorer cousin to the well-regarded ISM manufacturing index, and usually doesn't get much attention. The index is expected to ease to 54% from 54.8% in September. Readings over 50% show growth.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department reports on third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs. Economists think productivity advanced at an annual rate of 3.3%, the best pace in two years. Unit labor costs, a gauge of inflationary pressures, probably rose just 1%, the lowest in four years, excluding a few quarters distorting by the timing of billion-dollar Wall Street bonuses.

The quarterly productivity numbers are too volatile to be of much use.

Looking at the yearly trend, productivity has slowed. The exceptional productivity gains in the 1990s and early 2002s "are looking more and more likely to be a thing of the past," wrote economists at Wachovia Securities. Productivity has slowed to 1.3% the past few years, implying the economy now has a speed limit of about 2.5% before it fuels inflation.

"This is a much slower speed limit for the economy than had been widely assumed and would require a different monetary and fiscal policy than has been in place," Wachovia said. The trade gap is expected to widen by about $1 billion to $58.5 billion in September, but the trend toward a lower deficit is still in place, economists say. Higher petroleum prices will push up the value of imports, while fewer sales of airplanes will reduce exports, they say. The trade figures will be released on Friday.

Higher oil prices continued into October, which should show up in the import price index. Import prices probably rose by 1%, matching September's gain. The report will be released Friday. "Aside from energy, there is little price pressure coming from the external sector, despite the declining dollar," wrote economists at Citigroup Global Markets. In the past year, import prices excluding fuels are up 2%, while the dollar is down 10.3% against major currencies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B114C4C66%2D5BDA%2D432B%2D9E43%2DFF3A3FE56980%7D&siteid=rss
 
Mark Leibovit, will be Paul Kangas 'Market Monitor' guest on PBS' THE NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT this coming Friday evening, November 9. Please check local time in your area for the broadcast.


TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006. TIMER DIGEST also ranks Mark as the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2006! Currently in the #1 spot for 2007!

http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp

His last show is at the link below.

Good trading to all this week!

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/060526e/
 
robo said:
Mark Leibovit, will be Paul Kangas 'Market Monitor' guest on PBS' THE NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT this coming Friday evening, November 9. Please check local time in your area for the broadcast.


TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006. TIMER DIGEST also ranks Mark as the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2006! Currently in the #1 spot for 2007!

http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp

His last show is at the link below.

Good trading to all this week!

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/060526e/
Click to expand...

Looking forward to hear what he has to say.
 
ADM beat the street by .09 cents as did Emerson, Lear, Nortel, and Headwater. There is a lot of earning today and no ED so the earnings will rule.

Japan was a major disappointment last night. They alway do that, one direction before you go to bed, then you get up and they close in the opposite direction.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSL055834720071106?pageNumber=1

Greenspan told a forum in Tokyo that high inventories of unsold homes presented a major risk to the U.S. economy and that he was not sanguine about how quickly the glut could be reduced.

"We still need to accelerate the rate of inventory liquidation, and that will mean bringing housing starts down and sales up. We have a long way to go," said Greenspan, who was answering questions via video link from Washington.

Soros said in a lecture at New York University that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a serious correction and that the Federal Reserve may be underestimating the potential slowdown.

"I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing," Soros said.
Bill Gross, chief investment officer at the world's No. 1 bond fund PIMCO, told CNBC Television the Fed could not afford to let U.S. housing prices fall sharply and would need to cut rates aggressively, perhaps to 3.5 percent.

JPMorgan thinks the financial services industry is sitting on $60 billion in undisclosed losses. PIMCO's Gross, characterizes the subprime crisis as a "$1 trillion problem".
 
European Central Bank Policy Meeting, Bank of England Policy Meeting on tap. Thursday will be the release of the BoE and ECB policy.

Anyone have a opinion?
 
A $39 billion loss for GM will not be good. All the talking head are looking weak. Dollar has tanked and that will cushion the I funders.
 
A Race to the Bottom

Last Update: 06-Nov-07 12:50 ET


On October 24, Merrill Lynch (MER) shocked the market when it reported a third quarter loss of $2.3 billion that was driven by a $7.9 billion write-down of its collateralized debt obligations and U.S. subprime mortgages.
The shock of Merrill's announcement was rooted in the understanding that less than three weeks prior to the actual earnings announcement, Merrill warned its write-down would approximate $4.5 billion.

That things could deteriorate so rapidly raised serious questions about Merrill's understanding of its own risk management. It led to CEO Stanley O'Neal losing his job. For the market, it highlighted the risk that the third quarter might not have been the bottom for the financial sector with respect to write-downs linked to mortgage-backed securities.

Anyone who still held out hope that the bottom had been seen got a dose of reality on Monday when Citigroup (C) shared the startling news that it is forecasting a write-down of approximately $8 billion to $11 billion for its fourth quarter due to "significant declines" in the fair value of its approximately $55 billion in U.S. subprime direct related exposures. Citigroup incurred a write-down of $6.5 billion in the third quarter.

In what can now be heralded as an infamous assessment of business conditions, CEO Charles Prince said on October 1, when warning of the bank's third quarter disappointment that, "...we expect to return to a normal earnings environment in the fourth quarter." Charles Prince, by the way, also lost his CEO job.

So, the market stands at attention now, waiting for the next write-down shoe to drop. There have been rumors that Goldman Sachs (GS) will announce a write-down. Goldman Sachs, which had an unbelievably strong third quarter report, has denied those rumors.

Companies don't typically respond to market rumors unless they see their stock price get hit hard and know categorically that the rumor is false.
Time will tell, but it seems all but certain now that there will be another round of write-downs for the fourth quarter. This realization is being priced into the financial stocks.

The question is, will any of them be larger than Citigroup's estimated write-down? Another question is, will they lead to more CEO departures?
If other banks have further write-downs to announce, now is as good a time as any to make them if the write-downs are estimated to be significantly less than Citigroup's.

The write-downs won't be good to hear. However, they could serve to isolate Citigroup as the biggest loser in the mortgage debt mess. In this regard, bad news from others is apt to be spun by the market as good news in that: (a) it is better than feared and (b) not as bad as what was heard from Citigroup. This spin, presumably, would help lift some very depressed stock prices in the financial sector over the near-term.
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20071106125155LookingAhead
 
The 200 dma held and I hope it continues to hold. I'm hoping for a bounce and then bailing out to the G fund. I'm playing with fire.
 
I don't know if anyone mentioned this already...

Different analysts will come up with different figures, but I show that there have been seven confirmed Hindenburg Omens during the past 30 days.

- Jason
sentimentrader.com
Click to expand...
 
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