The Technicians Account Talk

[The_Technician]

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this week is rather dull in news of the economy.....thats good for market direction to maintain its heading....

I've been looking at the possiblity that this lower energy cost thing is going to affect the market the rest of the year....consensus, energy costs will stay low and go lower ...and the market will go higher and higher....

I mentioned that I made some new analysis of the recent data....conditions look favorable to the previously mentioned scenario.....hence we will challenge the 1245 area of the S&P high in Aug.....if conditions maintain good economic sense, then the market could be in the 1260's before you know it.....expecting lower profit margins next year, we could just get into a good ramp and stay that way for a while....generally when a control system is balanced like we seem to be getting, that is the result, a balanced output.....I'm sure very few people know what I'm talking about.....but maybe someone will get it.....

I will be updating my viewpoint again soon as things change....or not ....

Sitting and smiling all the way....

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Going to step aside to the G fund for a few days....still bullish......just want to see if I can get in at a lower position....

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Well I've been playing around the numbers again this past week....I've been reluctant to post any fund moves due to my experimentation.....good news though....seems to me some of my new data is starting to make some headway...

Seems to me, the markets are at a peak for a week or so and should expect a correction in the C and S funds of up to or about 4-5%.....could go 8% or so.....only way to tell is like Cowboy has said ....you just won't know until it happens .....

This is all still speculative but the data is indicating a slow down in returns....I expect the F fund to make a correction any day now, but it should make a comeback and still outperform the G fund for a while...

I want to make some moves still on my own and see if I can crack this thing for a daytrading type of investment....there seems to be so much to gain if you can get the combo to the TSP.....

There is nothing like trying to wrangle down a doggie that you can't predict which way its going to turn, all you can do is just get a feel for it.....

Ya'll have a Happy Thanksgiving this week,

The Technician :dude:, otherwise known as Dancing With Wolves DWW, and sometimes known to be Carnac the Magnificient if he hits the G fund correctly(Carnac hasn't been so magnificent lately in the rest of the market) thats has to be a good one Norman....thanks again for the token....

 

[The_Technician]

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Well we are getting the drop I talked about last time....I'm looking for the S fund to return to positive territory sometime in the near future...More likely when the Wilshire 4500 gets into the 520's.....we should be getting some more negative returns until then and I expect before its over, we could see -10 to -12% down from its recent high last Friday...

Patience is a virtue....:^

:dude:

 

[Soldat]

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We are only half way up this mountain, Tech. Look at the past data, we have a ways yet to climb before Jan 1st 2006. Look for record highs "coming to a market near you."

 

[The_Technician]

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Hmm, I think you have preceived me incorrectly ....I meant we should get a correction this week and maybe next week.....we got -4% yesterday.....and I believe we will have more this week.....another -6 to -8% over the next several days....

I agree with ya, we're only halfway up this mountain as you put it Soldat....

Heck I even said weshould have a good return until Mid Jan last week.....at least up to 570's in the Wilshire 4500....

 

[Soldat]

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This is only preliminary but I am analyzing "presidential" market trends. Do you see any similiarities between Bush sr and jr? Time will certainly tell.

 

[The_Technician]

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Well, I haven't given it a thought.....but seeing that Bush Sr and Clinton inherited an economic train that was going gainbusters anyway, I don't firmly believe anything they did in office would really matter.....Bush Jr. inherited the ending of that train and has been trying to get it steaming again.....

Presidents can only give the opportunity to get an economic engine going, its left up to the product development, interest rate controls and so forth to get it going and keep it going...

Best thing that ever happen was Reagan's financial advisor, U know the one who was called a Voo-doo economic creator, Dave Stockton I believe...he implemented active control systems to the economic engine....:^

Biggest problem we have now is the reprecussion we will suffer for the instability Congress has created with exporting our jobs and businesses overseas....they should have gone slower and kept it stable....we're in for a hard landing sooner or later.

U ready???:%:end:

:dude:

 

[Soldat]

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I think that if the end of the world is coming, it will happen between Jan1 and May15. LOL
Its not going to happen in December.

Speaking of jobs, tax, and inflation, what do you think of..?
http://www.fairtax.org/
Personally, I know nothing about it, just seen a few signs around Georgia.

Anyways, Dec 22-26 rolls around and I am heading for the hills. The (G)reen pastures are the safest pastures.

 

[KAPLOWD]

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http://www.hsdent.com/content/spending%20wave.cfm

http://www.hsdent.com/content/dow%20channel.cfm

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

KAPLOWD will have you on Porzac if you look at those graphs he is posting from H.S. Dent. I'll be happy happy with the Dow at 12,000 by April 30, 2006. Did you notice that business capital spending is finally starting to carry some weight.

Don't you like Gregs' new avatar - I think it fits to a tee - I always knew he had good taste.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

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I pulled all the way out of the I fund.....went back to G to wait and see what happens....a few percent won't mean much considering we're entering a very unpredictable period till first week of Jan....

I could momentarily change direction in a day or so but right at the moment I don't like what I see....."I feel a presence, something I have felt before......" a quote from the dark character of Darth Vader.

:dude:good luck with it all...

 

[The_Technician]

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I know this is finicky, but I decided to halt the transfer and go another day....early morning data can be deceiving.....we are in a ticklish situation and the old mellon just isn't as solid as it once was...:l

:#

 

[The_Technician]

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I went ahead and pulled out of the I fund went 100% G .....it seems to me we're going null.....whatever is left isn't worth the year end risk...

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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After reviewing the F fund trend, I decided to go ahead and move all assets into the fund by COB tomorrow....expecting a jump almost immediately after the start of next week.....

 

[Pill]

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I really never have cared topost my movesbut I guess I'll try it somemore...



Thanks Technician :^. It sure helps a young invester like myself! Good luck.

 

[The_Technician]

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U 2....glad to beany help if I am....sure missed the I fund by getting out yesterday....who would've thunk it.....sure didn't see it coming.....but I expect almost anything until Friday.....
:^

 

[nnuut]

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Tech,

Sorry about the post in your Account Thread, My Bad!

Norman

 

[The_Technician]

NNuut...

That's Ok.....If any of you guys are having problems on uploading your avatar.....I uploaded my avatar and got a failure of upload notice....but I still got the avatar.....

And Tom had to change my name a little with a space....it seems to be promoting a problem in posting....

Lets have a good year.....even it the market doesn't...

I missed the smiliies.....and my Dude smilie Tom....
The_Technician

 

[The_Technician]

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