The Tariff Talk

[Boghie]

For the most part, small businesses are service - they won't be hit by tariffs.
If they are resellers, they will be more nimble than big business and will resource quicker.
If they are stuck - like perhaps a store that sells plastic models - their customers are also stuck.

Tariffs suck. I don't like them, but they are not the end of the world. Tariffs are inflationary, other forces are deflationary. And, the tariffs will be jiggered when the target countries change their policies. We kinda have to wait and see.

 

[nasa1974]

Unleaded Regular (Raleigh, NC):

Aug 2024	$3.34/gal
Aug 2025	$2.95/gal
Deflation:	11.7%

No impact, no idea where that Speedway jacked prices by $0.77. Must have been something local.

That $2.95/gal is higher than I have seen it for a while. It was $2.85/gal in July. That is why the FED doesn't include fuel in it's preferred inflation gauge - but a 40 cent decline YoY is pretty good.

Not sure what is going on but gas at Speedway is back to $2.72/gal. It was definitely $3.49 on the marquee yesterday. We also pay almost $0.60/gal in federal and state taxes.

 

[James48843]

Court strikes down tariff authority

Big Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruling on Trump's IEEPA tariffs. The Federal Appeals Court has struck down most of Trump's tariffs and has given the President till October to appeal.

Some of the takeaways from the ruling.

It was a 7-4 decision. The majority ruled that IEEPA does not authorize either Trump's reciprocal/universal tariffs (the ones he has used to impose tariffs on most countries and to strike his trade deals), OR his "fentanyl trafficking" tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China. The IEEPA tariffs on Brazil over Bolsonaro and the tariffs on India over Russian oil were not at issue in the case and not part of the ruling.

The majority seemed skeptical of any IEEPA tariffs, noting that the words Congress commonly uses when giving the President tariff authority ("duty," "tariff," etc.) are not in IEEPA and that Congress typically requires the President to adhere to various procedural and substantive requirements in tariff statutes.

The majority also remanded to the lower court on the question of how broad the injunctive relief should be. E.g., should Trump be allowed to keep collecting tariffs from parties that have not themselves sued. This is in light of the Supreme Court's CASA decision earlier this summer.

The case now will go to the Supreme Court, and in doing so might challenge what the president can enforce in the way of trade


More: https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-appeals-court-b714cfc8dff51289b1d5291f46d71f3f

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting. I wonder how the market will react. The tariffs remain intact, but that could change.

 

[James48843]

They are saying Trump can keep collecting until at least October, to give them time to file appeal to the US Supreme Court.

I can see this ramification: if tariffs are going away on October 1, if I were a factory here, I’d cease production and lay everybody off until October 1.

Stop taking in supplies and delivering product until it can go tax free. That could suddenly grind everything to a stop until a decision is made.

I feel a disturbance in the force.

 

[nasa1974]

The tariff pinch is about to begin with the removal of the duty free on packages $800 or less.

 

[Boghie]

If a business has already re-shored it's production it won't quickly reset it back to China or whatever.

I always thought it was a bit sus to impose tariffs because fentanyl and things like that. I don't know why he keeps yammering about that. Just organize them and impose them. If a bi-lateral trade agreement is made than adjust or remove them. Simple.

 

[nasa1974]

I bought this last year to do some small flower beds in the yard. This same tiller/cultivator is now $100 more than what I paid for it last year at this time. Corporate greed or tariffs?

 

[James48843]

If a business has already re-shored it's production it won't quickly reset it back to China or whatever.

I always thought it was a bit sus to impose tariffs because fentanyl and things like that. I don't know why he keeps yammering about that. Just organize them and impose them. If a bi-lateral trade agreement is made than adjust or remove them. Simple.

That’s not legal. He can’t just make up a number, and impose it.

The Constitution says Congress has the power to lay taxes. Not the President.

If he created a uniform system of tariffs, with specific criteria connected to legal data, he COULD get Congress to pass it for a year. That is the only real way for it to be legal.

 

[James48843]

For the record- have to report:

One year ago, in September 2024, I bought a six pack of this German beer at my local store, and paid $11.49 for it.

As a person who lived four years in Germany in the U.S. Army, I no longer have a tolerance for American beer. If it’s not Bavarian, then I’m not buying it.

Today, that exact same Bavarian six pack is now $14.99 See enclosed pic for photo evidence.,

This tariff induced inflation is serious! It’s affecting MY BEER!

There is now a 10% tariff I am paying, AND a 10% reduction in the value of the U.S. Dollar vs the Euro since January ( .97 euro per dollar then, now is .86 euro per dollar).

Tariffs, plus the devaluation of the U.S. dollar since Jan 1 this year make my beer $14.99!!

 

[tsptalk]

It's $15 for one beer in Vegas.

 

[JTH]

For the record- have to report:

Tariffs, plus the devaluation of the U.S. dollar since Jan 1 this year make my beer $14.99!!

Assuming those are 6 tiny beers... I find the German stuff to be a bit overpriced here compared to the Polish equivalent.

So a 4-Pk of this would run about 12.50 USD

 

[James48843]

Assuming those are 6 tiny beers... I find the German stuff to be a bit overpriced here compared to the Polish equivalent.

So a 4-Pk of this would run about 12.50 USD

View attachment 70087

Oh yeh! Weissen beer. In half-liter bottles. That is the good stuff.

 

[nasa1974]

For the record- have to report:

One year ago, in September 2024, I bought a six pack of this German beer at my local store, and paid $11.49 for it.

As a person who lived four years in Germany in the U.S. Army, I no longer have a tolerance for American beer. If it’s not Bavarian, then I’m not buying it.

Today, that exact same Bavarian six pack is now $14.99 See enclosed pic for photo evidence.,

This tariff induced inflation is serious! It’s affecting MY BEER!

There is now a 10% tariff I am paying, AND a 10% reduction in the value of the U.S. Dollar vs the Euro since January ( .97 euro per dollar then, now is .86 euro per dollar).

Tariffs, plus the devaluation of the U.S. dollar since Jan 1 this year make my beer $14.99!!

I drink American swill. I'll get a case for under $25.00. Hopefully it lasts me a week. Sometimes I'll treat myself and buy a 4 pack of Grolsch.

 

[James48843]

Today in Homes.com

Furniture tariffs are coming, Trump says​

President Donald Trump plans to announce new import taxes on furniture within the next 50 days, according to a Friday social media post.

"We are doing a major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States," Trump wrote in his post on Truth Social. Items will be tariffed "at a rate yet to be determined."

"This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union," Trump added in his post.

The announcement is the latest update to the White House's tariff policy. Since April, the administration has levied a series of import taxes on countries, including China and Vietnam, major furniture producers.

More: https://www.homes.com/news/roundup-...-says-furniture-tariffs-are-coming/108709045/

 

[James48843]

Today in Homes.com

Furniture tariffs are coming, Trump says​

President Donald Trump plans to announce new import taxes on furniture within the next 50 days, according to a Friday social media post.

"We are doing a major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States," Trump wrote in his post on Truth Social. Items will be tariffed "at a rate yet to be determined."

"This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union," Trump added in his post.

The announcement is the latest update to the White House's tariff policy. Since April, the administration has levied a series of import taxes on countries, including China and Vietnam, major furniture producers.

More: https://www.homes.com/news/roundup-...-says-furniture-tariffs-are-coming/108709045/

Note: in doing more research- it turns out they already DID a Section 301 study on tariffs for furniture back in 2019, and furniture from China ALREADY has a large 30% plus 10% tariff on it.

Trump’s claim that they are studying it really means nothing- they already are tariffed a lot on furniture.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[voodoostation]

For reference:

Tariff Tracker – HBS Pricing Lab

www.pricinglab.org

 

[Boghie]

For reference:

Tariff Tracker – HBS Pricing Lab

www.pricinglab.org

Voodoo, by definition tariffs will increase costs and prices. However, there are a LOT of moving parts, so prices can fall even if tariffs rise.

What I am saying is: If there were no tariffs those prices would have fallen further. You have to weigh many things to determine if the cost of a tariff is worth it. It is not simple. For example, even the paper you reference doesn't seem to note that other parts of the economy might be anti-inflationary like fuel costs right now. So, if a tariff increases cost by 15% but lower fuel costs decrease product cost by 10% then the increase is 5%. If a shoe would now cost $36 because of a 50% tariff on China but costs $25 if sourced out of Vietnam with a 15% tariff then the importer will switch to Vietnam. Factor in other things like reduced regulation and whatever and you may actually see deflation.

Regardless, wait and see and keep your powder dry.

 

[voodoostation]

I don't believe prices would have fallen further without tariffs, at least not naturally. China is notorious for subsidizing its companies to gain an advantage in pricing out domestic manufacturing and reducing our output and productivity. And they're very adept at routing their products through other countries to circumvent previous tariffs. It's not fair trade practices, nor should it be encouraged.

We have a lot of work needed if we want more manufacturing here, but it's needed desperately. The imbalance of trade, especially to non friendly countries is harmful to us. There is nothing wrong with be a protectionist, especially when dealing with countries actively working against us.

I'm not a "Buy 'Murican" guy, I like my cheap trinkets too. I'd like to see more things built and made here, though. Jobs, environmental impact, societal impact. We've implemented tariffs and import taxes since the founding of this country, for one reason or another. They do have a place in trade policy, though I'm no fan of the Chicken Tax. I like my little cheap trucks.

They also work well as negotiating and leverage tactics. You know we love spending money on things. And they're not static taxes, they do evolve. Besides, it gives the gubment more money to spend on stupid things, because we always send our best and brightest.

TLDR, I guess, but my post was just a counterpoint to the doom and gloomers always pointing to Smoot-Hawley. Not all, or most tariffs negatively impact us as a nation.

 

[Boghie]

China subsidizing a company reduces the asking price of the products it exports.
Putting a tariff on a product increases the price of that product from that source - that is the point.

I am not a fan of tariffs, but they have their uses. You mention quite a few. However, one of them is not to reduce cost.