The Retirement Kingdom - June 2007

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom - June 2007
Introduction
June 2, 2007​

The start of a new thread​

The Lilly Pad​

Will be starting a new monthly thread for folks near or in retirement. The object of the thread will be capital preservation, making rewards at a minimal risk and trying to dodge or break out of a serious correction or crash.

For buy and holders please refer to the TSP L-2010 and L-Income funds. However, for position or swing traders we will use these funds as models for normal advancing trends. For serious up or down trends we will adjust accordingly. For really overbought conditions we might take shelter in the G-Fund.

Anyone, please feel free to post. I would appreciate comments from "tsptalk", "rokid", and others to guide us along.

Here is to calm days, sunshine, and plenty of bugs to eat!

Spaf
[aka the frog]​

 

[MohammadXX]

Spaf,

Good topic.
I'm retired. IMO, I need to take a substantial risk in equities (60-70%) during the bull runs, so I can hide in G during downturns.
If i'm gonna AVERAGE 6, 8, or 10% over the long term, I have to do well in the up years cause there will, of course, be down years (i.e., 2000-02').
Can I avoid the corrections? Not very well, as I often mistake head fakes for long-term trends. Just my opinion.
Mo

 

[GGal]

Spaf, since you are in retirement, I think you are very wise not to stray too far from the Lily Pad. I hope you can venture in enough though to snare 10% a year if possible.

I have only 6 years to my eligible date, so I am of course being far too risky, but I have such faith and exhuberance, just can't help myself.....

Having a nice time with the granddaughters?

 

[ATCJeff]

I'm down to 4 yrs and 8 months. I think about retirement daily. People are rushing out the doors here at the FAA.

 

[GGal]

Well for heaven's sake, I hope some good replacements are rushing in just as quickly! I like my air traffic controlers well-trained.

 

[EW_ret]

I can offer my thoughts and point to retirement income strategies that I've discovered. I retired September 30, 2005 and have remained conservative because I do not need the income from my portfolio. Therefore, I maintain a 30% to 40% equity position. The Lifecycle 2010 fund would be an appropriate match for my strategy. If your a risk taker your might want a higher stake in equities. The bottom line is how much will you need to withdraw from your TSP each year. Will it last for thirty or more years?

My advice for those planning retirement is to first figure your expenses and how you want to live. One rule of thumb to estimate your retirement income needs is take 80% of your final income, after subtracting your savings. If you’re saving 15% of gross income in TSP and IRAs, you would estimate 0.8 X 0.85 X gross income. This is 68% of final gross income. Of course if you want to travel and lead a life of leisure you would require more (maybe 0.9 X 0.85 = 77%)

Then you need to examine your sources of income in retirement and estimate the percentage contributed from each in terms of your final income. Example, 28% FERS basic annuity, 18% Social Security supplement, 22% (or 31%) TSP. Next determine what that 22% (or 31%) of TSP represents in terms of final salary. A $70,000 final salary means 22% (or 31%) is $15,400 ($21,700) withdrawn yearly from your TSP account. If this is more than 3.5% of your TSP balance you need to take more risk, meaning more allocated to equities. This is where you run Monte Carlo calculations for different asset allocations, and desired probability that assets will last 30 or more years. Fidelity has a good retirement planner tool that’s free to use. You don’t even have to have an account, but you do have to register. Here is the link to Fidelity Income Planner . You must click the Become a Fidelity Member link on the right to register. Be prepared to enter detailed expenses, current income, and retirement assets.

Another good retirement income calculator is FIRECalc. Its site is found here: http://www.firecalc.com/

 

[Spaf]

Mo,
I hope to present ways we don't need to take substantial risk. That we can avoid what happened in 2000-02. We can avoid corrections, and as GeorgiaGal says "not straying too far from the lilly pad!

The C-S-I funds though different in holdings pretty much react the same to market conditions. By analyzing movement of the C fund you can tell what is going on. By comparing returns you can reasonable estimate a performing allocation.

Follow me through the use of "stops". Not fool-proof, but one method of preventing small losses from becoming large losses.

Spaf

Spaf,

Good topic.
I'm retired. IMO, I need to take a substantial risk in equities (60-70%) during the bull runs, so I can hide in G during downturns.
If i'm gonna AVERAGE 6, 8, or 10% over the long term, I have to do well in the up years cause there will, of course, be down years (i.e., 2000-02').
Can I avoid the corrections? Not very well, as I often mistake head fakes for long-term trends. Just my opinion.
Mo

 

[Spaf]

How much money are you going to need in TSP for retirement?​

One example:
Figure your estimated monthly living expenses and add a reasonable buffer.
Lets say $4,000 total.

Get a estimate for your civil service and social security.
Lets say $1,500 + $1,500 = $3,000

Add any other retirement benifits.
Lets say $500

You now have expenses of 4K and benifits of 3.5K
Woops we forgot TSP!

We can get a monthly payment of $500 from TSP under the withdrawl election.

So how much are we going to need in TSP to do this? Well 500 per mo. equals 6,000 per year. If 4% is the maximum we want to take out, we will need a TSP account of 150000.

To sustain an account against inflation you need to add a annual 3% increase.

To keep your principal intact you would need to earn 7% a year (4+3).

The G-fund will pay near 4% a year - at no risk.

So you have to earn another 3% by investing.

What about bad years: bears! You may want to buffer your TSP! In this example it would be 3000 X number of estimated bad years.

Every retirement will be different! Are you married? How is your health? What are your bills? What do you want to do in retirement?

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
June Edition
Sunday June 3, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................Socks remain bullish, [SPX] above the 13d MA / above 50d MA. B. bands are stable.

Con-Yak....................................The B. bands also indicate that pricing is high and the Stochastics oscillator is registering overbought.

Jester-Yak.................................Keeping allocations with caution as market is tired and may need a breather.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1536.35.....................1521.............1506

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............65.20 -0.12 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=11.95..F=11.26..C=17.13..S=21.01..I=24.77
The end of 2006...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location......................60%-G, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[SkyPilot]

A positive note for TSP participants in retirement: regarding a future down period i.e., 2000-2003.

As we have the ability to move daily that we did not have during that time period, we should be able to manuever to avoid such drastic declines. However, this will require continued active observation and involvement in managing TSP accounts.

The L-funders may well find that they have been left out in the cold, as they "set it and forgot it" on cruise control, over a cliff or into a mountain.

This would also apply to those who adhere to the strictest applications of a "buy and hold" approach.

On another note, most TSP related allocation services or newsletters indicate only very modest losses or some gains during that time period.

Retirement looks bright, and bless all of you who have stepped into this "promised land".

 

[rokid]

The reference is to the Trinity Study Tables http://www.retirement-income.net/trintable3.htm.​

Note the results are for passive, buy and hold portfolios and based on Ibbotson Associates data from 1926-1995. Assume a 100% stock portfolio provides 11-12% average return. You may be able to average more (or less!) through an active trading/timing strategy. However, I wouldn't bet the retirement on it.​

Three things are clear.​

1.) 100% bonds, e.g. G/F Fund, will not see you through retirement of greater than 15 years at any withdrawal rate higher than 3%. Consequently, 100% bonds is a risky, not a conservative, strategy.​

2.) A 4% withdrawal rate is sustainable at a 50% stocks or greater allocation for 30 years.​

3.) Finally, the probability of withdrawing > than 4-5% a year from your portfolio during retirement is extremely doubtful unless you only live a couple of years. Consequently, if you need to withdraw more, e.g. 10%, forget it!:laugh:​

 

[EW_ret]

Reference is TRowPrice Retirement Income Planner.

An asset allocation of 40% Stock /40% Bonds/ 20% Cash will allow a 4% yearly withdrawal with greater that 90% probability of lasting thirty years. I have run various asset allocations using this calculator and this is the optimal asset allocation for a 4% withdrawal rate with a very high probability of success (>90%). Of course this uses many assumptions and rules.

If you need more income, say 5%, then you must assume more risk and increase the allocation to equities. However, this also means you have to accept a lower probability that you income will last 30 years, or you accept a shorter period drawdown (i.e. 25 years rather than 30 Years). For example, for a 5% yearly withdrawal you need at least 60% in equities (60/30/10), but the probability of lasting 30 years drops to near 70%. If you lower the period of drawdown to 25, then the probability of lasting 25 years increases to 80% with an asset allocation of 60/30/10.

This calculator allows you to play off how much you need against asset allocation, years of withdrawal, and a probability of lasting for the desired period. You can dig deeper if you want to uncover the assumptions the calculator uses. It uses prior market performance and expected future returns of seven asset classes, runs 500 hundred simulations, and assumes all assets are held in tax deferred accounts (401 and IRA). It also adjusts the asset allocation to a more conservative every five years, so as to be at 5/25/70 for the final five years of drawdown.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 04, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX remains bullish with rising MA and buying interest.

Con-Yak...................................SPX remains high priced, overbought and extended.

Jester-Yak................................Holding position and mindful of the stops!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1539.18 +2.84.........1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............66.21 +1.13 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 05, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX remains bullish trading above the 13d MA / above 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX registering a weak bearish with %K under %D.

Jester-Yak................................What do you expect? We were overbought and extended!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1530.95 -8.23.........1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............65.61 -0.60 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 06, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX giving mixed signal; Bearish below the 13d MA but Bullish above the 50d MA. B. bands are holding stable.

Con-Yak...................................Stochastics registering bearish with %K under %D.

Jester-Yak................................Alert triggered but trailing stop is good, so far!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1517.38 -13.57........X1524...........1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............65.96 -0.50 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 07, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................B. bands for SPX indicating that stock prices are low.

Con-Yak...................................SPX now bearish below th 13d MA. Stochastics also registering bearish with %K under %D.

Jester-Yak................................Stops broken!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1490.72 -26.66........X1524...........X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............66.93 +0.97 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Conditional IFT submitted 45%-G, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
June 8, 2007​

We have investments about 66% in TSP and 33% with ST, those being tax paid. TSP is excellent, but you can't move funds very fast if you are a trader.

Not that every one likes doing this but it is a lot of fun! And it does serve to protect capital.

I like diversification. Having funds in different areas for protection. I had a checking account with the credit union in Oklahoma City, however there was a terrorist attack and funds were locked until their back up system could be implimented.

No body told me that new pick-up trucks had their fuel vent system down to the frame level. Well when you launch your bass boat guess what happens! It sucks water into the gas tank! Well that was an unplanned emergency. It's best to keep about 10K in money markets or savings to take care of boo-boos.

Had to spend another $70 to get a trap. Friggin Racoons were destroying the bird feeders. Ifn you got a coon problem, give me a PM! Got some folks in Texas that make excellent traps!

Rear seat plastic floor mats are great for unhooking fish!

If GeorgiaGal is listening, Barbie has a great back-pack fishing combo for girls [1-6] Thanks GA! My rug-rats really enjoyed it!

Later,
Spaf

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
June Edition
Sunday June 10, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................B. bands remained stable. SPX was holding it's 50d MA. The Stochastic Oscillator was headed to oversold. We increased our allocation by 15%.

Con-Yak....................................Generally a low volume bounce is not to be trusted, but the market has been sort of ignoring that guideline.

Jester-Yak.................................We'll be cautious, hopefully!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops................................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1507.67 -28.72 for the week....X1524............X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............64.76 -0.34 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Cautious 15% Buy.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=11.96..F=11.18..C=16.82..S=20.53..I=24.24
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................45%-G, 00%-F, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 11, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX is trading below 13d MA but trending upward.

Con-Yak...................................The stochastics oscillator had no current signal, but %K was at or below 25% (oversold).

Jester-Yak................................So we're in a holding pattern!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1509.18 +1.45.........X1524...........1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............65.97 +1.21 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................45%-G, 00%-F, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 12, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The Stochastics oscillator for SPX registered bullish with %K above %D, and above 20; no longer oversold.

Con-Yak...................................Inflation and earning news disappointed market. SPX is below it's 13d MA and trending lower, near it's lower B. bands

Jester-Yak................................We're getting tossed about!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1493.00 -16.12........X1524...........X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............63.35 -0.62 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................45%-G, 00%-F, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.