The Retirement Kingdom - August 2007

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Periodical
August 2, 2007​

Yak and The Lilly Pad.

Yak.................Too volatile, staying on the lilly pad. If you want a indicator of volatility, I'd suggest using Bollinger Bands:

Bollinger Band Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/34py9g

Lilly Pad...........100% G-fund.

Regards and be careful!

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
August 2007 Edition
Sunday August 05, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.....................................The words are "capital preservatiom"!

A while back I wanted to make to make up some salsa for tacos! I had used up my jalapenos so I tried to make the salsa with some habanero chile peppers....Wrong!....Everyone ran to the water bucket!

The recipe has to be right for the market. Now it's all wrong, so it seems! The season is unfavorable, there is worry that bad credit will weaken the economy, there is a housing problem, energy is still a crisis, earnings haven't been reinvested and the Fed still has the high interest rates.

Moving averages are bearish and the Bollinger Bands still indicate greater volatility.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops................................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1433.06 -25.89 for the week....00000............00000

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............75.48 -1.54 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<65= ok, 65-75= worry, >75= panic (maybe).

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Observation and patience.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=12.05..F=11.40..C=16.02..S=19.21..I=23.64
.......(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................100%-G.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Sunday August 12, 2007​

Kingdom Yak, The Lilly Pad, and Tea leaves.

Kingdom Yak:
Yak........................................The market is in a indecisive and volatile area. Bad loans, housing, slowing economy, and seasonality are taking a toll!

The Lilly Pad
Location...................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves.....................................Capital preservation until clear indicators are forthcoming.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Wednesday August 15, 2007​

Still holding in the "safe funds" (100% G-fund). Where this thing unwinds, don't know!.....

The factors seem to be: bad mortgage loans, housing, a slowing economy, and sentiment (as this is not the best month's), an forbid...a hurricane.

So!....still in a capital preservation mode (since July 10th)!

Patience please, and lets see what unfolds! Will not be returning to equities until some reliable indicators show that it has a bullish safe trend.

Regards and be careful:.....

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Sunday August 24, 2007​

Kingdom Yak, The Lilly Pad, and Tea leaves.

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.........................................Still in a capital preservation mode; TSP fund G or F. Recent market advances have been on light volume from a suspicious V-ish bounce. [$SPX] is slightly below it's 50 day moving average and nearing conditions that would be considered over bought. Not the time to be buying!

The Lilly Pad
Location...................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves.....................................Capital preservation. Indicators are blurred and fundamentals are questionable, namely the sub-prime debacle. Seasonality is also out of favor.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Thursday August 30, 2007​

Kingdom Yak, The Lilly Pad, and Tea leaves.

Kingdom Yak:
Yak........................................I think I'll mix a batch of margaritas and go sunning on the lilly pad. Heck with the market! The market is confused with the uncertainty of the credit debacle. No one seems to know the real story. The financial guys can play by different rules and cook their books.

So should I put my retirement account at the mercy of an "unclear" system? Nope, don't think so!

Here is something to think about! Some may disagree! So I speak as a retiree (not as a moderator). I am not inclined to bunny hop the TSP funds; reason being the 1-2 day delay in IFT's. Thus I try not to be a swing trader, but more of a position trader. If I want to swing trade I'll go over to Scottrade where I can make instant trades! The risk of damaging an established retirement account is simply not worth it. I like what "tsptalk" has to say in the daily commentary, what "Rev. Shark" has to say and what "Trader Fred" has to say. The G-fund and a few low risk trades keeps the TSP account in smooth sailing, and with a buffer there is no worry about a bear attack.

The current market is too volatile! Homes are hurting, credit is in the toilet

, retailers are backing off, and dog food is next!

The Lilly Pad
Location...................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves.....................................Capital preservation. Dang them margaritas are good! http://www.badgerwest.com/salvadorsmargarita.shtml