The five root causes of a BEAR MARKET are caged for now!

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

Some of what I learned today from technicals: From Andre Gratian "The long-term trend turned up in 10/02 in conjunction with the 12-year cycle. It was reinforced by the 10-year cycle which turned up in the Fall of 04. Unless significant weakness develops between now and the end of June - a prospect which does not seem likely- I have to assume that the bull market highs are still ahead of us." Then he goes on to feed the Bears: "The performance of GE stock over the next few weeks should give us an early warning that the top of the bull market is about to take place. The next short-term low is expected at the end of June, early July, and it should usher in the final leg of the bull market. Indicating a long term loss of upside momentum and the probability that within a few months the lower channelk will be penetrated and bring the bull market which started in 10/02 to an end. The positive is I won't have long to wait for my demise - c'mon come give it to me - I love pain.

Greg Miller writes: "Our weekly system model is flashing buy signals across the board in spite of Friday being a down day. This strengthened buy signal should be viewed with respect...our MACD has just gone positive." The Birch stays 100% long.

 

[Guest]

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Greg Miller also expects the market to be down 2-3% next week.

I e-mail with him .

He is a friend of mine.

 

[Guest]

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Our weekly MACD has given a buy signal on a down week. We look for a 2-3% pull back next week on the NDX before we find our legs to move higher this summer.

From his latest writings.

 

[Guest]

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I also am friends with Gary Kaltbaum, Charles Kirk and Peter Schieff. Some of the highest return guys over the past decade.

They would not touch this market with a 10 foot pole right now.

Not to name drop but I e-mail with all of them on a daily bases and talk to them via phone once a week.

:^

 

[robo]

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Jobs are in the sweet spot for the year, average is now around 175k monthly. Needs to stay between 150k and 200k.


Last month 274K this month 78K average is 176K, things are currently looking very good for the S&P to reach 1300 by the end of the year. I still agree with Mike short term cautious, but still bullishoverall.


I do respect your view, but the big picture in my view is things are currently looking very good down the road. I will continue to add new money on the pull backs.

If a pullback happens next week, I welcome it so I can add to my long positions.

 

[Guest]

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Robo

207K jobs were created by the birth/death model last month (not real jobs. created stastically jobs). Not a person filling a position.

257 for apr and 179 the month before that.

The number you are hearing on the news IS NOT REAL.

It is the birth/death model. 643K in the last three months are a GS14 making them up.

:shock::shock:

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

Here I am trying to get you off that rope- and you have a significant support system that way exceeds mine - only I'm a renegade contrarian - I choose to be a non-believer in the Bear case. My hard earned money will walk the talk. If I end up correct and we have a significant move up from here I will make considerable dollars-I'm holding nothing back. Currently on the persistant come back trail and will probably exceed previos portfolio peak by the end of June or head back to my last lows. Anyway I don't have long to wait. Isn't this a great country - we all have equal opportunity to make or break our own futures. I will gladly run the risk against the Fed. I think they are done.

Could you use your multiple contacts to find out where Joe Granville has placed his bet for the immediate future. Last I heard he went negative in1/05. Can you confirm if he is holding to that position. Any way your are fun to battle with - makes things interesting. One other question though if I may? Are you close to Al Gore by any chance. Take care,

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

Please you are being way to modest in your prediction for the sp500. If rates pause, oil prices recede, the dollar finds equilibrium via other trading partners allowing continued increases in exports, labor costs remain subdued, productivity moderates only slightly, we kill one million more rag heads to end strife in Irag, and BOJ decides they will in fact try to reflate their economy- then why can't we have new highs above the previous high of 1527.46? Look at the graph for 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, and finally into spring 2000. We are much better off now than we were in those preceeding years - Heck, I'll take sp500 of 1600 before I will even comtemplate the process of backing out slowly - I'll want as much as I can get on the way to 1700.

Now if that don't scare Yogi and Chicken Little, not to mention DMA, I don't know what their fear level might be. They will miss a great opportunity to get right for retirement - Ferdinand can you smell the fresh money?

Dennis

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Birchtree wrote:

Robo,

Please you are being way to modest in your prediction for the sp500. If rates pause, oil prices recede, the dollar finds equilibrium via other trading partners allowing continued increases in exports, labor costs remain subdued, productivity moderates only slightly, we kill one million more "rag heads" to end strife in Irag, and BOJ decides they will in fact try to reflate their economy- then why can't we have new highs above the previous high of 1527.46? Look at the graph for 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, and finally into spring 2000. We are much better off now than we were in those preceeding years - Heck, I'll take sp500 of 1600 before I will even comtemplate the process of backing out slowly - I'll want as much as I can get on the way to 1700.

Now if that don't scare Yogi and Chicken Little, not to mention DMA, I don't know what their fear level might be. They will miss a great opportunity to get right for retirement - Ferdinand can you smell the fresh money?

Dennis

Talk like the above sure scares me...... I'm not sure our Commander-In-Chief would buy into your methodology for delivering Freedom and Democracy to Iraq...................... Sorry, couldn't let that one slide by without a comment of disagreement.

De Oppresso Liber !

 

[robo]

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Dennis,

I agreethe S&P has thepotiential to go much higher if the five root causes of the bear stay caged. If the bears don't buy on these pull backs they are going to be very sad by the end of the year.. The big picture is very bright , but we must continue tomonitor those that want to crash the party.. At some point this year the bears and those shorting this market will have to sayUNCLE. When that happens, as Tom would say, "whoooooooossssssssssshhhhhhhhhhh" I have been jumping in and out lately trying to make a little extra, not always a good thing. But overall I'm long.... and will stay that way. I have cash short term waiting for pull backs. I have money in the Vanguard Total Stock Market.They limit it to 2 withdraws a year.That money stays long unless I get a sell signal from Bob Brinker. I follow him onmy Vanguard funds. He has made me lot's of money.. Up over 50% since his last buy signal when the S&P was at 800... Headvised a caller today not to get out of this market.. He also advises to put new money to work on pullbacks under 1160 on the S&P..

Great chance to add new money last month!!!!!!!!! He remains very bullish, he has a great recommened reading list and lots of good stuff for people just learning. Check it out.... http://www.bobbrinker.com/for those of you new to investing. I think you will enjoy his site.


I also agree with Mike about investing. He comments about long term investing.. Sometimes I act like a trader and let emotion control moves in the market... Not good..


"The Party Crashers are listed below"

Tight money, rasing rate, high inflation, rapid growth, overvaluation

Let's keep um caged................ Your correct the furture looks great, and pullbacks of 2 to 3 percent or minor corrections will cause the market to rally and take it higher and higher and higher and higher............ after these pullbacks are complete.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

Can you confirm if he is holding to that position. Any way your are fun to battle with - makes things interesting. One other question though if I may? Are you close to Al Gore by any chance. Take care,

Dennis

Joe believes we have Great Depression II on the horizon.

Consumer debt is 366% of GDP. During 1930 prior to Great Depression I it was 180%.

New bankrupcy rules were pushed through now for that reason.

47% of new mortgage are ARMs and interest only.

Foreclosures are up 56% year over year.

People are taking much risk in order to get yield and return.

S&P 500 PE is 20.7.Start of last bull market PE on S&P 500 was 7.

Joe believes we need to contract like 1966-1982. He believes bear market starts end of June or July. Every rally is a chance to sell.

You should listen to Peter Schieff's radio show. He is a very bright man. I respect his views very much.

Bob Brinker - QQQs .

Colin Powell has swam in my pool at my house. Heis an honorable man. That is as high as the food chain I have gotten. Al Gore is a politician to put itkindly.

 

[Guest]

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Dogdaddy wrote:

Birchtree wrote:

Robo,

Please you are being way to modest in your prediction for the sp500. If rates pause, oil prices recede, the dollar finds equilibrium via other trading partners allowing continued increases in exports, labor costs remain subdued, productivity moderates only slightly, we kill one million more "rag heads" to end strife in Irag, and BOJ decides they will in fact try to reflate their economy- then why can't we have new highs above the previous high of 1527.46? Look at the graph for 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, and finally into spring 2000. We are much better off now than we were in those preceeding years - Heck, I'll take sp500 of 1600 before I will even comtemplate the process of backing out slowly - I'll want as much as I can get on the way to 1700.

Now if that don't scare Yogi and Chicken Little, not to mention DMA, I don't know what their fear level might be. They will miss a great opportunity to get right for retirement - Ferdinand can you smell the fresh money?

Dennis

Talk like the above sure scares me...... I'm not sure our Commander-In-Chief would buy into your methodology for delivering Freedom and Democracy to Iraq...................... Sorry, couldn't let that one slide by without a comment of disagreement.

De Oppresso Liber !

That little strife is adding 2.8B to our deficiet and costing us 4 American lives per day.

Current account debt:

Current Amount

06/02/2005 $7,774,731,028,223.85


Unfunded liability 87T.

Trade balance liability 777B.

 

[Guest]

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By the way: When was the last time we had a summer rally???

Everyone gets their legs cut off in summer.

I believe a lot of people on this board lost a ton of dough in mid June-end of July last year. I thought we would have some jumpers there towards the end. It was pretty dome and gloom.

Better to be in position not to be in that position this year.

Happens every year. Other then 2003 with the dividend tax cut injection.

No injection this year. Private accounts - DOA.

 

[Birchtree]

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Dogdaddy,

I'm sorry too, what I should have said was one million bad insurgent rag heads from all Arab countries wanting action - we surely will oblige them - send them all to see Allah. Only Satan is waiting for this bunch. Someday Iraq will be a good duty station for military folks that like to travel. Take care

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

The rally starts Monday 6/6/05 at 0930, watch for it. It is going to be a get up and go summer rally.

My portfolio was sloshing around in 04 - I just kept dollar cost averaging buying the up move and buying the down moves - until the last 3 months when the up move hit big time. I got terribly bruised in this last 900 point drop - but have already begun to heal those wounds. When we reach Dow 11,000 this summer I will be fully redeemed and then some. If we slide into summer doldrums and further correct I'll just keep dollar cost averaging my dividends, building, and building, and waiting for the next bull up leg. I'll depend on you good buddy to get me out near the top , somewhere around Dow 13,000 and sp500 of 1527. Take care

Dennis

 

[Mike]

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This is too easy - DMA,if the numbers don't support your bear paradigm, you simply say the numbers are faked or fudged by some bureaucrat. Yet you are quick to embrace OTHER government numbers about manufacturing sector performance. :shock:

I'll say it again: annual GDP growth > 3% does not constitute a recession or anything close to one. No amount of posturing on your part will change that fact.

 

[Spaf]

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With U Mike! Yep we kno the sky ain't falling, maybe, or is it! Let me run outside real quick!.............................No, it ain't falling!

But, got to say.....1st Admendment - freedom of expression, even, yes even,for bears!. Gotta hear there side too!

Gwd! I love this site! Spaf

PS: Is your chipmunk trained on that bazooka? Ever fired it before?

 

[Mike]

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Yes, he is good with firearms. A very dangerous adversary indeed...

 

[GALLO1]

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Hello guys and gals, I'm new to TSP Talk, However, I'm not new to TSP. I might not be in the right forum for my question or that my question will be asked in such a way that makescents for anyone to reply, but here it goes.

How does Dollar cost averaging work? I thought that it was simply if the markets are up, you get fewer shares, and if the market is low, you get more shares. So if one were to invest G=10%, C=30%, S=30%, I=30%, and it’s for say 10+ years, wouldn’t that be a fairly good return based on historical data? I guess I’m asking for some feed back too on what’s the benefit of keeping daily track? Why would it make any sense to be solidly in the G fund if one is investing for the long run? Of course I would have hated to be retiring in 2001 or 2002.

I’m not too great with numbers and economics, but I figure I’d better learn fast because I have only 10-15 years to retire. I wish I had known about this site years ago, but at least I know about it now.

GALLO1

 

[mlk_man]

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DMA wrote:

Yield curve is all ready inverting.

Not yet buttercup..............

BONDS
Two questions are roiling the bond markets this week. Will the yield curve invert? Will the Fed stop their rate hikes soon?
[align=justify]The yield curve has not yet inverted, although it certainly flattened more dramatically after the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll figure for May. While the bond market rallied on the news, yields started heading back from their lows and by day's end, were down about 10 basis points from Thursday's close. The spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has narrowed to 41 basis points. Historically, a yield curve inversion has preceded recessions. It is not yet commonly believed among market players that this drop at the long end of the market is signaling recession. Many believe that the low yields reflect liquidity imbalances in the global market. Since long bond yields are even lower in other countries, the demand for U.S. Treasury securities is strong.
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The Fed question is also interesting. Dallas Fed's Fisher, at least initially, claimed the Fed was in the "eighth inning" of a tightening cycle. Before seeing May's employment report, I would have taken Fisher's comments with a big grain of salt. However, if the employment situation indeed signals that economic activity has moderated more significantly lately, this would give the Fed more leeway in pausing their rate hikes this summer. On the other hand, a pundit suggested that Greenspan wants to make sure that inflation will be wiped out and not be an issue when he hands over the reins of the chairmanship in 2006. After 18 years in his position, Greenspan would not want to be remembered as soft on inflation.
How soon can the Fed stop tightening rates? Economists are convinced that the Fed can't stop until the fed funds rate target is somewhere in the neutral zone (of 3.5 to 4.5 percent). At 3 percent today, the Fed will touch the bottom of the neutral zone with two more measured increases of 25 basis points. The next FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting on June 29-30. The Fed next will meet on August 9.
[align=justify]The questions are tough indeed. It is no wonder that market players are anxiously awaiting Greenspan's remarks on Monday night and Thursday. [/align]