Stocks moved higher again on Tuesday and the 2-day rally has basically recovered last Friday's big losses in the S&P 500, and it filled the gap that loss had left open. The Dow gained 166-points or about 1%. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small caps) lagged a bit, although the S-fund did fine. Oil finally had a positive day.
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The strong holiday seasonality is playing out nicely so far, and while there is a lot more green showing on this and the December charts through the end of the month, the more recent years' tendency has been to see stocks move in one direction the week before Christmas, and in the other the week after, although the overall bias has been positive.. This chart includes data from 1950-2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) filled the gap left open last Friday, and it is also back testing the resistance of the 50-day EMA. We know the seasonal strength is on the bulls' side, but the short-term action in the charts is more negative - but the longer-term could be forming some large bullish formations. (See Tuesday's commentary for that chart.) Not a clear picture for any direction after this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) was up modestly again yesterday and filled the small gap before running into the descending resistance line. A positive day on Wednesday would go a long way toward the bullish case.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been trading in a sideways channel since the big gap up in mid-October. It lagged yesterday but has probably held up the best during this recent pullback. Weakness in Apple's stock hasn't helped recently.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index managed to close back above the breakdown point after just two closes below it. We like to see at least 3 closes before we call it an official breakdown so yesterday's rally helped.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The DHY High Yield Bond Fund had a big day but it held at the resistance line for a second day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was down slightly and did find some support at the 200-day EMA, but this chart still looks more bearish for bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The strong holiday seasonality is playing out nicely so far, and while there is a lot more green showing on this and the December charts through the end of the month, the more recent years' tendency has been to see stocks move in one direction the week before Christmas, and in the other the week after, although the overall bias has been positive.. This chart includes data from 1950-2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) was up modestly again yesterday and filled the small gap before running into the descending resistance line. A positive day on Wednesday would go a long way toward the bullish case.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been trading in a sideways channel since the big gap up in mid-October. It lagged yesterday but has probably held up the best during this recent pullback. Weakness in Apple's stock hasn't helped recently.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index managed to close back above the breakdown point after just two closes below it. We like to see at least 3 closes before we call it an official breakdown so yesterday's rally helped.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The DHY High Yield Bond Fund had a big day but it held at the resistance line for a second day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was down slightly and did find some support at the 200-day EMA, but this chart still looks more bearish for bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
