12/23/25
Stocks opened higher on Monday and the S&P 500 maintained a healthy gain throughout the day, closing near the highs of the day. Small caps led, but actually drifted lower all afternoon after peaking near noon ET. There have seen some ugly Christmas weeks before so I don't want to say gain this week are a guarantee at all, but there's a lot of bullish catalysts lining up and getting off to a good start this Christmas week helped.
Rather than just be a cheerleader for the Santa Claus rally, as I have been, let's look at some possible developments.
Technically, all three of the TSP Fund charts look bullish. But looking at yesterday's intraday charts shows that, compared to the C-fund, the S-fund (DWCPF) didn't quite hold as well. It peaked about noon ET then started a steady decline toward the close. There was a late push higher but it did close about 9-points below the highs.
The I-fund held up very well until the final 30 minutes of trading where it couldn't quite breakout above the earlier highs, and then in contrast to the S-fund, it fell sharply in the final minutes of trading.
But zooming out we see that ACWX (I-fund) did make a new high and held there into the close, despite that very late weakness. That's good news for the technical analysts, and as we'll see next, the dollar must cooperate.
The dollar was down yesterday, but it rallied throughout the day after the weak open, and it spiked up late, and that may be exactly why the I-fund declined late into the close yesterday.
On the small caps side, we can see that yields also rallied during the day, and that may be why the S-fund drifted lower in the afternoon.
So, if I'm talking about the micro and intraday moves, it's because it's a boring market, and a boring market that is moving higher, so I'm not finding too much to worry about. There may be some concerning issues, but with the Fed and the seasonality calendar on the market's side, I'm trying not to over think the broader picture. Of course we can always worry about complacency in a bull market as the VIX just tested the lows for the year, but won't worry too much about that until next week after Christmas, and maybe even after the new year starts.
The Transportation Index made another new closing high yesterday to add to the bullish story.
And the Russell 2000 gapped up to retrace some of the early December losses, but I did notice that late selling in small caps. I hope it is just the intraday volatility of yields that triggered that, and not investors giving up on the broader market, which could happen when the AI stocks get hot again.
The stock market and TSP offices will be closed for Christmas on Thursday, December 25. Also, the stock market will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday the 24th. The TSP transaction deadline is unchanged for Wednesday.
Since I write up my commentary the night before the posted date up top, it means I will have to create Friday's report on Christmas evening. Because of that, it may be a quickie.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gapped up on Monday, and that means we have to look over our shoulders until that gets filled. A breakout to new highs without filling that gap would be a little concerning, and a gap fill before this makes new highs would get investors concerned again about another lower high, and that may make it tougher to navigate. New highs, or even just getting above 6900 again, would help, but as long as that gap unfilled, maybe we should sleep with one eye open. :^)
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) looked great early, fizzled late, but I probably shouldn't whine about a 1% plus gain. This is still in good shape, but that open gap is always a pullback draw.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved down slightly as it continues to hug the support line. The formation makes me think this will break lower, but sideways action is always possible as investors debate if and when the next interest rate cut is coming.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened higher on Monday and the S&P 500 maintained a healthy gain throughout the day, closing near the highs of the day. Small caps led, but actually drifted lower all afternoon after peaking near noon ET. There have seen some ugly Christmas weeks before so I don't want to say gain this week are a guarantee at all, but there's a lot of bullish catalysts lining up and getting off to a good start this Christmas week helped.
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Rather than just be a cheerleader for the Santa Claus rally, as I have been, let's look at some possible developments.
Technically, all three of the TSP Fund charts look bullish. But looking at yesterday's intraday charts shows that, compared to the C-fund, the S-fund (DWCPF) didn't quite hold as well. It peaked about noon ET then started a steady decline toward the close. There was a late push higher but it did close about 9-points below the highs.
The I-fund held up very well until the final 30 minutes of trading where it couldn't quite breakout above the earlier highs, and then in contrast to the S-fund, it fell sharply in the final minutes of trading.
But zooming out we see that ACWX (I-fund) did make a new high and held there into the close, despite that very late weakness. That's good news for the technical analysts, and as we'll see next, the dollar must cooperate.
The dollar was down yesterday, but it rallied throughout the day after the weak open, and it spiked up late, and that may be exactly why the I-fund declined late into the close yesterday.
On the small caps side, we can see that yields also rallied during the day, and that may be why the S-fund drifted lower in the afternoon.
So, if I'm talking about the micro and intraday moves, it's because it's a boring market, and a boring market that is moving higher, so I'm not finding too much to worry about. There may be some concerning issues, but with the Fed and the seasonality calendar on the market's side, I'm trying not to over think the broader picture. Of course we can always worry about complacency in a bull market as the VIX just tested the lows for the year, but won't worry too much about that until next week after Christmas, and maybe even after the new year starts.
The Transportation Index made another new closing high yesterday to add to the bullish story.
And the Russell 2000 gapped up to retrace some of the early December losses, but I did notice that late selling in small caps. I hope it is just the intraday volatility of yields that triggered that, and not investors giving up on the broader market, which could happen when the AI stocks get hot again.
The stock market and TSP offices will be closed for Christmas on Thursday, December 25. Also, the stock market will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday the 24th. The TSP transaction deadline is unchanged for Wednesday.
Since I write up my commentary the night before the posted date up top, it means I will have to create Friday's report on Christmas evening. Because of that, it may be a quickie.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gapped up on Monday, and that means we have to look over our shoulders until that gets filled. A breakout to new highs without filling that gap would be a little concerning, and a gap fill before this makes new highs would get investors concerned again about another lower high, and that may make it tougher to navigate. New highs, or even just getting above 6900 again, would help, but as long as that gap unfilled, maybe we should sleep with one eye open. :^)
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) looked great early, fizzled late, but I probably shouldn't whine about a 1% plus gain. This is still in good shape, but that open gap is always a pullback draw.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved down slightly as it continues to hug the support line. The formation makes me think this will break lower, but sideways action is always possible as investors debate if and when the next interest rate cut is coming.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
