3/12/13
Stocks rallied yet again yesterday as the Dow gained another 50-points, the S&P 500 was up for a 7th straight day, and the Russell 2000 made it 9 straight days.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0121%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Last month I took a stance that we should not get in the way of this strong rally. I said the old lines like, "the trend is our friend" and stuff about freight trains being tough to stop, etc. Well, nothing has changed except for one thing; That 4-day stretch in mid-to-late February that shook things up a bit when the short-term trendline and the 20-day EMA broke. That action sent me into a more bearish stance and I've paid the price since.
Since that February, low the S&P 500 has moved up over 70-points or about 5%. Ugh! We all know that money is being made by investors, and a huge number of those folks who are making money are completely oblivious to what is going on. They put money in their 401K's and TSP accounts and check their statements every few months and they will be very happy the next time they look.
There's an old saying about even a drunken monkey throwing a dart at the Wall Street Journal can make money in a strong bull market, and I'm kind of wishing I were that drunken money right now. But we all know that eventually we will see a pullback, or even a correction, and patience may or may or pay off, but the drunken monkeys and the buy and holders will give back some of those gains. No offense to intended to drunken monkeys.
News flash! The S&P 500 is going up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Resistance is once again at hand in many timeframes, and we'll have to see what happens from here. Momentum says hold on but it sure looks like a great selling opportunity when you look at a chart like this.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 closed strongly yesterday giving it a 0.01 gain so that makes 9 consecutive positive closes for that index.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Amazingly, many indicators and trends are still showing positive situations setting up. Here's one telling us what has happened in the past when we've had 10 consecutive days with more stocks in the S&P 500 closer up than down...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It has only happened once in the last 10 years, but the numbers look bullish no matter how you slice it.
The chances of me capitulating and buying here without some kind of a pullback first, are very slim. If that means missing out on more gains... oh well.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yet again yesterday as the Dow gained another 50-points, the S&P 500 was up for a 7th straight day, and the Russell 2000 made it 9 straight days.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0121%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Last month I took a stance that we should not get in the way of this strong rally. I said the old lines like, "the trend is our friend" and stuff about freight trains being tough to stop, etc. Well, nothing has changed except for one thing; That 4-day stretch in mid-to-late February that shook things up a bit when the short-term trendline and the 20-day EMA broke. That action sent me into a more bearish stance and I've paid the price since.
Since that February, low the S&P 500 has moved up over 70-points or about 5%. Ugh! We all know that money is being made by investors, and a huge number of those folks who are making money are completely oblivious to what is going on. They put money in their 401K's and TSP accounts and check their statements every few months and they will be very happy the next time they look.
There's an old saying about even a drunken monkey throwing a dart at the Wall Street Journal can make money in a strong bull market, and I'm kind of wishing I were that drunken money right now. But we all know that eventually we will see a pullback, or even a correction, and patience may or may or pay off, but the drunken monkeys and the buy and holders will give back some of those gains. No offense to intended to drunken monkeys.
News flash! The S&P 500 is going up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Resistance is once again at hand in many timeframes, and we'll have to see what happens from here. Momentum says hold on but it sure looks like a great selling opportunity when you look at a chart like this.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 closed strongly yesterday giving it a 0.01 gain so that makes 9 consecutive positive closes for that index.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Amazingly, many indicators and trends are still showing positive situations setting up. Here's one telling us what has happened in the past when we've had 10 consecutive days with more stocks in the S&P 500 closer up than down...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It has only happened once in the last 10 years, but the numbers look bullish no matter how you slice it.
The chances of me capitulating and buying here without some kind of a pullback first, are very slim. If that means missing out on more gains... oh well.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
