The June Jobs Report came it at +222,000 jobs, which was much better than expected and stocks acted accordingly posting a decent rally getting back most, and in some cases all, of the losses from Thursday's sell off. The Dow gained back 94 points of Thursday's 158-point loss, while the Nasdaq added 64 after Thursday's 61-point loss.
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Whether you are a bull or a bear, unless you have had the golden touch timing this market in recent days / week, you have had days going against you, and some were big days. The chops are getting wide and that in and of itself can be a sign of trouble, and it would be nice trading action - if you could make a move every day or two, but we obviously can't.
I just got out of my car after a 6 hour drive Sunday evening so this report may be brief, but sometimes I say that and I can't stop blabbing, so no guarantees.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) rallied back up to the 20-day EMA after another successful test of the 50-day EMA. The swings are getting wider and that could be a trouble sign, but what the bulls will be looking for is a high volume reversal to the upside. We saw a nice reversal a couple of weeks ago on decent volume but the only thing we got after that was a some light volume holiday choppiness, which is tough to read.
The Nasdaq 100 had a nice day gaining 1% on the day and getting back all of Thursday's losses. It failed again at the 50-day EMA again however, and we've seen a lower high and a lower low form so officially this is a downtrend. This is one of the market leaders so it will be interesting if it continues to underperform without pulling the other indices down with it.
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice day gaining back about 1% of Thursday's 1.3% loss. It fell below the 50-day EMA for just one day before Friday's rally. One rising support line has failed and you can see the next levels that need to hold, including the 50-day EMA.
The Dow Transportation Index had a big day on Friday pushing it to new all-time highs and potentially bypassing a double top pullback, but as post-holiday volume picks up this week we'll see what the big money wants to do at these highs.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is holding above the 50-day EMA but as I have been saying, the charts of the major European markets have been weakening a little more than this chart might indicate, and we're watching bear flags on those charts for signs of breakdowns.
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) has been failing at key support and now it may have its eyes on the 200-day EMA and that last open gap, but it could take some time to take care of that TA.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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