08/20/25
Once again a couple of stocks helped the Dow outperform yesterday, while the rest of the market struggled. The Nasdaq's decline got a little serious with a 1.5% loss, and the TSP stocks funds all lost less than 1%. The I-fund led despite another move up in the dollar, and yields were down giving the F-fund a boost.
The NYSE advance / decline line was positive yesterday but the Nasdaq was upside down with almost twice as many stocks down than up, and look at the new 52-week lows -- 102 versus 114 new highs.
That seems impossible when looking at a one year chart. How could nearly as many stocks be making 52-week low as making a new high? It's because many of the large cap tech companies are performing so much better than the rest of the index.
A closer look shows yesterday's pullback brought it down to the 20-day average, where it found support - so far. It has closed below that average only once, on August 1st, since mid-April. This sets up a big test coming up over the next few days.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) lost 0.59% yesterday and technically it was another negative outside reversal day. We had a couple of these bearish warning signs in July without much damage being done but they are starting to add up. I don't like them. Add that the bearish PMO indicator, and we may be looking to test some lower support soon.
The Dow Transportation Index was actually up yesterday but it tested the top of what I thought was becoming a bear flag, although it is getting a little long to call it a flag. For now it has just been a double top pullback that held at support so far.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 have also been pulling back, but that actually looks like a bull flag right now. Just eying the chart it still looks fairly bullish, but if we start seeing this falling below about 220, the bears may start getting more aggressive.
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium starts tomorrow. It could bleed some headlines that may impact the markets.
The DWCPF / S-fund put in yet another negative outside reversal (NOR) days where the highs went above Monday's high, but it closed below Monday's low. The NOR on July 29 did precede a modest decline, but nothing overly serious yet. There were a couple in June. One of those also preceded a small pullback, but another on June 25 did nothing but reverse up again. A series of these must mean something because they are fairly rare formations.
ACWX (I-fund) was also down yesterday, but not before making a new intraday high. It outperformed the US stock funds again despite a move up in the dollar. I didn't show them today, but there are several open gaps on this chart that could look to get filled from 60, on up to about 62.60.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up modestly after bouncing right back above the April highs (blue line.) It could be creating a bull flag here but there are technical reasons that it could move all the way down to the 73 area without really hurting the bullish picture here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Once again a couple of stocks helped the Dow outperform yesterday, while the rest of the market struggled. The Nasdaq's decline got a little serious with a 1.5% loss, and the TSP stocks funds all lost less than 1%. The I-fund led despite another move up in the dollar, and yields were down giving the F-fund a boost.
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The NYSE advance / decline line was positive yesterday but the Nasdaq was upside down with almost twice as many stocks down than up, and look at the new 52-week lows -- 102 versus 114 new highs.
That seems impossible when looking at a one year chart. How could nearly as many stocks be making 52-week low as making a new high? It's because many of the large cap tech companies are performing so much better than the rest of the index.
A closer look shows yesterday's pullback brought it down to the 20-day average, where it found support - so far. It has closed below that average only once, on August 1st, since mid-April. This sets up a big test coming up over the next few days.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) lost 0.59% yesterday and technically it was another negative outside reversal day. We had a couple of these bearish warning signs in July without much damage being done but they are starting to add up. I don't like them. Add that the bearish PMO indicator, and we may be looking to test some lower support soon.
The Dow Transportation Index was actually up yesterday but it tested the top of what I thought was becoming a bear flag, although it is getting a little long to call it a flag. For now it has just been a double top pullback that held at support so far.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 have also been pulling back, but that actually looks like a bull flag right now. Just eying the chart it still looks fairly bullish, but if we start seeing this falling below about 220, the bears may start getting more aggressive.
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium starts tomorrow. It could bleed some headlines that may impact the markets.
The DWCPF / S-fund put in yet another negative outside reversal (NOR) days where the highs went above Monday's high, but it closed below Monday's low. The NOR on July 29 did precede a modest decline, but nothing overly serious yet. There were a couple in June. One of those also preceded a small pullback, but another on June 25 did nothing but reverse up again. A series of these must mean something because they are fairly rare formations.
ACWX (I-fund) was also down yesterday, but not before making a new intraday high. It outperformed the US stock funds again despite a move up in the dollar. I didn't show them today, but there are several open gaps on this chart that could look to get filled from 60, on up to about 62.60.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up modestly after bouncing right back above the April highs (blue line.) It could be creating a bull flag here but there are technical reasons that it could move all the way down to the 73 area without really hurting the bullish picture here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
