Target Rate Hike Probabilities

[tsptalk]

Coin flip for next meeting...

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/in...trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

 

[TommyIV]

Fed Rate Decision Probability

The next Federal Open Markets Commitee meeting is next week. As of today, the market is predicting a 78% chance of the first rate pause after 10 consecutive FOMC meetings where the Fed Fund rate was raised.

Traders give a 22% chance of another rate hike of 25 basis points. A week ago, before last week's jobs report, a 25 bp rate hike had a 64% chance for the coming meeting.

What economic data has the ability to further affect the rate decision between now and the June 13-14 meeting?

Wednesday 6/7:

U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

U.S. Consumer Credit


Thursday 6/8:

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims


Wall Street Reporter Dion Rabouin explains how all three affect inflation and the Fed's rate decision.



Current Fed Rate Probabilities for the June 13-14 FOMC Meeting:

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Fed Rate Decision Probability

Hopefully the hikes are on ice for a few years. Nice cycle chart of what normally occurs after the hikes end.

A composite of the average Fed Cycle would cause the following ordering/timing of events:
-March = First cut (8 month pause),
-June = Recession starts,
-October = Market bottom,
-Feb 2025 = Earnings bottom

https://twitter.com/3F_Research/status/1726414130704187825?