Sunday Brief, 8 August 2010.
Key Fibonacci & Linear Regression Levels over multiple time-frames.
Key Fibonacci & Linear Regression Levels over multiple time-frames.
Last week was a slow-to-flat week, but considering the news, I'd consider price to still reside in the Bull camp. The 1st chart shows us 3 out of 4 times, prices climbed higher in the early part of the week, then drifted lower. Yet each of these climbs showed a small breakout, so I'm still conservatively encouraged we can (at a minimum) reach 1040 and perhaps higher to 1050 before the dreaded historical September/October decline.
For the hourly July channel, prices yet again rose slightly higher, forcing me to redraw the Fibonacci levels. For this time-frame, prices are firmly Bullish with a Bullish bias and the Linear Regression channel has risen about 15 points to 1131.
Moving to the Daily April channel, we can see prices as trading in the yellow neutral zone, and since we are trading above the 50% level, I see prices as Neutral with a Bullish bias. Also, the Linear Regression channel has risen about 8 point to 1064.
Not much has changed on the weekly channel going back to the March 2009 666.79 bottom. I see prices as Bullish and since we are trading above the 23.6% level, I see this as Bullish with a Bullish bias. Oddly enough , the regression channel appears to have dropped 2 points to 1193.
The Monthly channel is VERY IMPORTANT. Although 50% is not technically a Fibonacci number, it is CLOSELY watched because it is the tipping line between the Bulls & Bears. The official 50% number is 1121.44 and we closed the week at 1121.64, therefore I see prices as Neutral with a (very slight) Bullish bias. The Linear Regression channels appears to have risen 8 points to 944.
So there you have it, although prices may appear to be Bullish, I do see this as a FRAGILE setup and our IFTs should be handled with care. You may have noticed I've begun rounding off the Fibonacci levels. I did this to save space so I could increase the font, thereby giving some of our "seasoned readers" the opportunity to not squint so much. I've also started drawing in the colored Fibonacci boxes again, to help simplify what I'm trying to convey.
I also want to publicly point out that Birchtree is spanking me on the Autotracker. In my usual big-mouthed manner, I self-betted that he wouldn't pass me up this year, and he clearly has. He was even so gracious as to decline the TSPTalk coffee cup I placed in the bet. For whatever reason unknown to me (but predicted by him) his C-Fund allocation has outperformed my S-Fund and I have to give him the kudos he justly deserves...
God bless and trade safe...Jason
