Successful Fed.Employee-7 figure club?

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Seiko141

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Greetings TSPTalk and community,

I go by Seiko141 on this forum. I am a retired Fed. I took an early out in 2016 and did not look back. I retire with just over 7 figures in my TSP account. I withdrew 150K to pay off my mortgage when I decided to retire. I have always been a buy and hold, conservative investor. Seldom did a make more than the allotted two trades per month. I also believed that no one will take better care of my investments than me. I feel I have done well. Please don't misunderstand me...I did not make great moves all the time. I did lose but, I learned a lot about the market along my 27 year career. I did have time in the military, 3 years. that had a good impact on my retirement numbers. So, I would like to engage with other folks in the 7 figure club. I know you are out there and I hope, collectively we can discuss market trends and share those ideas on the forum. I am a boomer so I will be the first to admit I'm not a tech whiz, but I do read a lot. I tend to focus on fundamentals I have learned and follow old trends like "Sell in May and go away!" But that move is made on trends...not flash news. Anyone interested?
Seiko141
 
Congrats & welcome to the Forum Seiko141

Not in the TSP 7 figure club, but there is still hope, but it may be awhile. I also did a partial rollover from TSP after VERA/VSIP early retirement in 2016. If you withdrew $150K, are you still in the club?
 
Seiko141,

Welcome aboard. Congrats on your retirement and successful TSP account.
 
Greetings fellow Feds. I hope this note finds well and comfortable. I'm sure you are making a little in the market right now. I am thinking this is going to be an exceptional period for steady growth...I am thinking long term. Look out at least a year from now. Let's pretend I have a million in the TSP. If I am split 50-50 in C and S funds, and I am garnering 1-4% per month, I can see at least a 10% growth over the next year and maybe beyond. Thoughts?
 
Seiko141 said:
I can see at least a 10% growth over the next year and maybe beyond. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I usually assume a 4-6% yearly return until I die and that's with a balanced portfolio spread across multiple accounts. My goals will be reached even with very conservative returns and intentionally low-balled return assumptions over the coming years.
 
This is a good conservative perspective. Based on how the pandemic affected the market, I think it's going to be a bit more aggressive until we reach 34,000 in the DOW. Then I will need to see what's happening in the world. Including the political posturing and global response, I think US markets are going to stay strong.
 
When I made the withdrawal I dipped out of the club. However, I have recovered. I am still working the C,S, and I funds.
 
Greetings fellow Feds. I am getting the good willies with the way the market is trending. While I was working, as an election neared, I was always a little skittish. This time however, I think the current trend will be to keep the markets moving in an upward fashion. This will be a major campaign focus for the foreseeable future. Both parties will see the benefits of a positive trending economic base and want to use this as a platform for success. We may experience few ups and downs but the overall trend for the next year will be up. I am thinking the C,S, and I funds will all show at least a 10% gain (if not more) over the next year. We will come out of the Covid crisis (as a matter of fact we are experiencing the evolution of pandemic panic right now...it will subside as the crisis runs its course.) I think we need to be patient and think long term (as is a year). If we look at our historical evidence from past market crisis, we see pretty consistent positive (long term) trends. Some recoveries were slow but many are emulating the current charts. If you are a working Fed, I hope you are depositing as much as you can (10% ( plus the Gov. 5%)). into your TSP portfolio. It will only enhance your retirement picture. More to come...Seiko141
 
Hello Fellow Feds,

I again want to reflect on how the market is reacting to current events. First, there is so much noise and so many distractions we can sometimes lose sight of our goals. One quote I reflect on is "We can not control the wind, but we can control the sail." The current winds are chaotic and brisk. The pandemic has caused tremendous uncertainty in the short term. I am so sorry for those who have experiences loss of family and jobs. This is truly a once in a lifetime event. It almost makes investing and tracking financial objectives last on our list. Another sometimes overlooked result of being quarantined is the mental exhaustion and fatigue that occurs. Especially in our medial professions, first responders and, not at all least, our families. An other aspect that is heavily influencing our behavior are the elections, transition of power, subtile conflicts in hotspots around the globe, foreign influences (politically and economically), and the lack of trust in our government. I can tell you with great certainty that this will pass. The pathforward is carving its way everyday we support and defend our democracy. We, as the government workforce, are an integral part of making our way of life sustainable, equitable and secure. I know when I served in the government (both in the military and as a civil servant), I took my oath of office seriously. I felt pride and honor to support and defend our constitution to the best of my ability, regardless of what party was in control. So, with this message I ask that all those who serve and are involved in this forum take a deep breath. I have all the faith in our system and our way of life. The markets are going to continue to grow. I am speculating between 1-3% per month (perhaps more) for the next year. Small businesses are going to recover as we move into the next year and beyond. As a vaccine becomes more widely available our current "normal" will begin to change to our old normal. It will not happen overnight. It will take time. I am holding fast with an aggressive growth strategy. Although I have retired from active service, I find myself serving my community and supporting those who need help and reassurance of better times to come. I am investing in the future growth of our country. (I live in Oregon and we (as those in several other states and communities) have experienced devastating disasters. I hope we can all stand strong, together as the United States should. I say this regardless of your political affiliation. Keep well, keep safe. Seiko141
 
I'm in my 31st year now. When I started TSP, I chose 80% C and 20% F and forgot about it. I mean FORGOT about it. I even received correspondence from the TSP folks saying "you haven't changed anything in 20 years - you still there?" I started at 10% and gradually increased it, but now am maxing out with catch-ups for the last few years.

I joined the 7 figure club in 2015.

About 2 years ago I started thinking I'd better start MANAGING my fund, because, you know - retirement. I tried following all the advice, logic, trends, charting, slogans, etc., thinking I'll learn this on my own and be successful at it. After 2 or so years of this, I'm giving up. I don't really think I will do better than following Jack Bogle's advice - invest it in good quality funds (C and S for me) and some bonds (G, maybe F), and LET IT RIDE. It will of course go up and down, but I can't predict it and I'll never have the chops to analyze it (a lot of you do). I'm starting to think a better strategy, for me, is to use small changes - ranging anywhere from maybe 40% to 70% stocks, but always have something in stocks to catch those big UP days. When I'm 100% in stocks I'm watching those d*mn tickers all day long, and checking for new posts in this website's comments section all day long, trying to decide to sell or not before that noon deadline.

I have a lot of things I'm more interested in than thisl. I really need to find a good investment advisor, which is my first priority after I retire (in 2 years).

This isn't a knock against all you analysts out there. I enjoy and will continue to try and follow your postings (and subscribe to the premium service), it's just that I'm not very good at timing movements myself -
 
Hey NatInPW,

In my opinion, you are right on target. First, we do have more important things to focus on. I do not frequent this site or any site. I do pay attention to events and news, but I don't react and make changes to my portfolio very often. I am 50% "C" and 50% "S" right now and have been for the last ~5 months. I intend to set tight until the Santa Clause rally is over. I will re-evaluate at that time. Right now I am thinking I will not make any changes until May (recall the old mantra "sell in May and go away!"). I think the economy will begin to flourish once we have a viable vaccine and it makes its way to the common, everyday person like me. That will take time. In the interim, people will begin to go back to work, the Government will release additional support for businesses, improved global relations will stimulate the "I" fund (as well as recovery from Covid) and people will begin to re-establish relationships and foster both spending and investing. Yes...I am a die-hard optimist. As you noted, we will have a few bumps along the way. I am thinking we will have relatively steady growth for the next two years. The Biden administration will be able to blame Team Trump for any failures for the next two years. Then that excuse will not work. By that time I will probably head to the safe harbor of the "G" fund and see what is happening both globally and here at home. I am concerned about Biden and his mental state in the job. I feel his mental fortitude may waver. If that does happen, and he recognizes it, significant changes in the political landscape may cause me to adjust my portfolio sooner. That's my story and I am sticking to it....Hope you had a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving. Seiko141
 
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Hello Ladies and Gents,

Here we go. I believe The Santa Claus rally is in full swing. Slow and steady...The question is when to jump. Personally, I will probably stay put. I have been thinking about going into the I fund based on the Brexit noise. If a deals comes together, I think it will boost the I fund and start a positive trend. Thoughts?

Seiko141
 
Seiko141 said:
Hello Ladies and Gents,

Here we go. I believe The Santa Claus rally is in full swing. Slow and steady...The question is when to jump. Personally, I will probably stay put. I have been thinking about going into the I fund based on the Brexit noise. If a deals comes together, I think it will boost the I fund and start a positive trend. Thoughts?

Seiko141
Click to expand...

If it's a good deal I could see the markets in Europe moving favorably but I don't think a Brexit deal would have much affect on the Asian market. However the "I" fund has trailed behind the US market by at least 15% over the last few years. So if there is a substantial move in the "I" fund it might not be a bad place to invest.
 
nasa1974 said:
If it's a good deal I could see the markets in Europe moving favorably but I don't think a Brexit deal would have much affect on the Asian market. However the "I" fund has trailed behind the US market by at least 15% over the last few years. So if there is a substantial move in the "I" fund it might not be a bad place to invest.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that the UK only makes up 13% of the I fund's holdings, AND if the Brexit doesn't have an agreement (which appears to be the most likely scenario at this point), the pound could get whacked pretty hard too.

good luck!

I fund tracks the EFA

efa.png

 
Yep. Still in. Withdrew 50K last year and again this next year. That's on top of $3700.00 per month. CSI funds are doing well.
 
Seiko141 said:
Slow and steady...The question is when to jump. Personally, I will probably stay put. I have been thinking about going into the I fund based on the Brexit noise. If a deals comes together, I think it will boost the I fund and start a positive trend. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

If you've reached your goals, why keep trying to squeak more gains out? Unless your goal is to "have more", which is no goal at all.

I Fund has massively underperformed US markets for years and is being hailed as the next big trade by a few wall street trading shops. I debated adding more to I Fund for 2021 going forward, but diversification is key and 15% is what I decided years ago. I Fund does come with currency risk. If business is good overseas and the US Dollar is bouncing higher, those gains are washed out.

I won't be 100% stocks at your age and am not 100% stocks now.

I salute your time serving our country. Stay safe. From the East Coast the Pacific North West looks like Lord of the Flies.
 
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