10/29/12
After bounding around most of the day on Friday, the Dow ended with a small 3+ point gain, but many of the other major indices saw modest losses. [TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
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[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
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[TD="align: right"] 0.0043%
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] 0.24%
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.07%
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.36%
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.30%
[/TD]
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[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
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[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
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[/TABLE]
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[/TR]
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For more on last week's and the current monthly returns, see the recent Weekly Wrap Up.
After 7 consecutive lower lows for the S&P 500, what will the market have in store for us today - a day where the NYSE will close its trading floor because of Hurricane Sandy? Electronic trading will continue, as will trading at the Nasdaq, so we will see some action, but volume could be light.
Update: All U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday.
From the TSP Offices: Some financial markets are closed today due to Hurricane Sandy. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 29th) will be processed when markets reopen which is currently anticipated to be Tuesday (October 30th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.
The S&P 500 has already had a technical break down, and now the question is, are wee seeing a bear flag that could break sharply to the downside or, after those 7 consecutive lower lows, is the index due for a relief rally? Any rally will test the overhead resistance near the 1425 - 1430 area - the old support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 are both testing their 200-day EMAs. Clearly in a downtrend and possibly due for a bounce, the 200-day EMA is always a test of a bull market's strength. So far for the Naz 100 it has experienced an 8% pullback. That's just short of an official correction, which would be 10% from the highs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Keeping a close eye on the Transportation Index, we see that the longer-term sideways trading range is still intact, but the current short-term trend is now down and tested the descending resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here is the seasonality chart for November. It looks like a very positive bias during the first few days, but with the presidential election coming up on trading day #4 (Tuesday the 6th), there could be some less than normal activity.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
If the election is as close as the polls suggest, and we don't have a winner declared on election night, it could present some interesting trading on Wednesday the 7th.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 49% bulls, 40% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.23 to 1. That is a Buy signal which means the system will remain in a 100% S fund allocation for this week.
I hope those of you on the east coast stay safely out of the way of this massive storm. It's looks like it could be nasty. How it affects the market and even the economy remains to be seen, but hopefully it will turn east and into the Atlantic before any major damage is done.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
