Stocks opened slightly higher on Thursday, and the buyers continued to pile in all day and we saw some nice gains once again. The Dow was up 36-points but the broader indices performed even better percentage-wise. The S&P 500 closed in on its all-time high while the Nasdaq 100 is still about 2% below its recent highs.
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Oil was up but it had an interesting negative reversal after initially moving back above the 50-day EMA. There's a possible head and shoulders pattern formed here, and if that's the case we may have seen the peak in the last brief push higher near $47.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) broke above its flag formation yesterday, and it only took one more day than it took back in July. Breakouts need a few days to hold before we can safely say it wasn't a fake out. It's interesting to note that the SPY made this new high, but the S&P 500 index itself is still below its summer highs.
The DWCPF (S-fund) continues to outperform, and 'tis the season I guess. It used to be that January was the month for small caps. Then it crept into December. This year it looks like investors didn't want to be left behind and they are jumping in small caps with a vengeance in November.
The EFA (I-fund) was up yesterday but because of the very strong rally in the dollar recently, it is still in some technical trouble here trading below the 50 and 200-day EMA's, and below two different trend lines.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund did not go the way of the stock market yesterday. Instead it spent the day creating a negative outside reversal bar. It remains in a downtrend and seems to want to fill that open gap near 84.25.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) flopped over again without filling that open gap. This is some serious downside momentum, but stocks and bonds don't usually go straight up or down so bonds may be oversold here. But stocks need to weaken before bond investors are likely to jump in. It could happen any day, but that's going against the trend.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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