In the spirit of the NCAA basketball tournament, a comeback by the bulls came up short on Friday with the bears winning the first 3 quarters of the game on Friday, and the bulls winning the 4th quarter. Unfortunately for the bulls, they had fallen so far behind that their 4th quarter run wasn't enough and the Dow ended the day down 146-points. The losses were modest in the broader indices.
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The I-fund led the stock funds with a 0.33% decline, while the F-fund (bonds) posted a small loss.
The Fed's FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday this week, with a policy statement announced on Wednesday afternoon. Look for some fireworks. The key thing we are looking for is whether they use the word "patient" when it comes to interest rate hikes. If not, we could be looking at rate hikes as early a June. But "patient" may get stocks excited again.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) filled an overhead gap on Friday, hit the 20-day EMA, and pulled back sharply as we saw steep losses by noon ET. A late rally took the index off the lows setting up an interesting situation for today. As you will see below, the small caps actually had a positive reversal day. That isn't quite the case on the SPY, but support is rising and the bulls may try to defend here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 is back down at the lower end of its long-term rising trading channel. There are two levels of support crossing near last week's lows and it's probably time for the bulls to make their move or the bears could take control like they did in October.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) closed with modest gains but has been able to remain above the 50-day EMA and the 20-day EMA, so its difficult to call this bearish at this point.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 small cap index shows an impressive positive reversal day on Friday and remains above key levels including the 20 and 50-day EMAs, and the short-term descending resistance line. There is a big open gap down below 1220 that could get some attention although Friday's decline and partial fill could be all we see there.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was down on Friday and it is flirting with the important 50 and 200-day EMAs lately. Most of the damage is being done by the strength in the dollar since some of the key players in the I-fund, the German DAX, France's CAC 40, and the Nikkei, actually all made new highs on Friday
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar has been reaching for the sky and made a 6-year high last week. It is at the top of a rising channel and there is big open gap down near 25.50, but the momentum is clearly up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The strong dollar has had a negative impact on the price of oil, on top of the fact that supply is up. It has fallen to $45 a barrel, well below the $50 level we thought the stock market could withstand.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is trading day #11 in March. For whatever reason, the S&P 500 has performed well historically on days 11, 12, and 13 before hitting a negative patch to end the month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is trying to stabilize but has been trading above and below some key support and resistance lines. It may take the Fed to help push this one in the direction it will eventually go. Rate hikes would likely send this and the F-fund down.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. Join our 2015 March Madness Contest! Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The I-fund led the stock funds with a 0.33% decline, while the F-fund (bonds) posted a small loss.
The Fed's FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday this week, with a policy statement announced on Wednesday afternoon. Look for some fireworks. The key thing we are looking for is whether they use the word "patient" when it comes to interest rate hikes. If not, we could be looking at rate hikes as early a June. But "patient" may get stocks excited again.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) filled an overhead gap on Friday, hit the 20-day EMA, and pulled back sharply as we saw steep losses by noon ET. A late rally took the index off the lows setting up an interesting situation for today. As you will see below, the small caps actually had a positive reversal day. That isn't quite the case on the SPY, but support is rising and the bulls may try to defend here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 is back down at the lower end of its long-term rising trading channel. There are two levels of support crossing near last week's lows and it's probably time for the bulls to make their move or the bears could take control like they did in October.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) closed with modest gains but has been able to remain above the 50-day EMA and the 20-day EMA, so its difficult to call this bearish at this point.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 small cap index shows an impressive positive reversal day on Friday and remains above key levels including the 20 and 50-day EMAs, and the short-term descending resistance line. There is a big open gap down below 1220 that could get some attention although Friday's decline and partial fill could be all we see there.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was down on Friday and it is flirting with the important 50 and 200-day EMAs lately. Most of the damage is being done by the strength in the dollar since some of the key players in the I-fund, the German DAX, France's CAC 40, and the Nikkei, actually all made new highs on Friday
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar has been reaching for the sky and made a 6-year high last week. It is at the top of a rising channel and there is big open gap down near 25.50, but the momentum is clearly up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The strong dollar has had a negative impact on the price of oil, on top of the fact that supply is up. It has fallen to $45 a barrel, well below the $50 level we thought the stock market could withstand.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is trading day #11 in March. For whatever reason, the S&P 500 has performed well historically on days 11, 12, and 13 before hitting a negative patch to end the month.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is trying to stabilize but has been trading above and below some key support and resistance lines. It may take the Fed to help push this one in the direction it will eventually go. Rate hikes would likely send this and the F-fund down.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. Join our 2015 March Madness Contest! Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
