04/24/26
Stocks were down yesterday but after a steep midday sell off, they bounced back to close well off their lows, with many charts filling an open gap during that quick, suspicious decline. Technical analysis is working overtime these days as we see all kinds of patterns and gaps doing what the tend to do. That's a good sign for chart readers. It doesn't give us all the answers but some roadmaps are being drawn.
We'll start with the chart of oil. I know this me repeating the same story, but it this has been the story recently, and as a technical analyst, this head and shoulders patterns is telling an interesting story. We said we could see a right shoulder form, but often head and shoulders patterns eventually breakdown after the shoulder is completed. There are exceptions, but for now this is the Ockham's razor view (theory with the fewest assumptions.)
The S&P 500 (C-fund) created a spinning top candlestick where we saw a fairly wide trading range on Thursday, but the open and close was somewhere in the middle of the highs and low. The previous highs have done a good job of holding as support and the bears have not been able to do much damage, and the dip buyers are quick to act. Gaps are getting filled while others remain open, giving us the biggest question mark as to whether they will get filled. In 2025 most of these similar gaps did not get filled.
This rally off the lows this year has been even more impressive than the one in 2025, which was quite impressive itself. The fact that we've come back so quickly may change how the next few weeks go, but one thing that was prevalent in 2025, was the repeated successful tests of the 20-day moving average while that "V" bottom climbed off the lows.
In 2026 the S&P 500 is still 200-points above its 20-day moving average. Many of those successful tests in 2025 came below the prior highs. This year the S&P is already back above its previous highs, without a test. Too far, too fast?
Here's the returns by month in 2025 vs. what we've seen so far in 2026. In 2025 April had a big positive turnaround but still didn't go positive, where this year's quick rebound has April up big. It's as if the investors who missed out in 2025 were not going to miss out and let that happen again this year, but perhaps that will set up some profit taking in May?
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 was flat yesterday but it had a big positive reversal day - almost as if the midday losses occurred just to fill in the open gap (blue.) That's a good set up for today, but...
... it actually looks a little suspicious, that 90 minute plummet and recovery starting at 1 PM ET. Perhaps dip buyers had their orders in to buy near 200.50? We still have a double top on the daily chart (top.) The question is whether this mild dip is all we'll get off the double top.
Semiconductors were up for a 17th straight trading day yesterday. If that's not a record, it has to be close. Confounding!
I'm on the neutral side feeling like stocks have come a long way in a short time, but the action and momentum is on the bulls' side, so I don't want to get too bearish.
Not the market mover it once was, Intel reported great earnings after the closing bell on Thursday and was trading up over 15% after hours.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) also filled in an open gap with yesterday's midday 90 minute swoon, and it quickly recovered and closed back above the prior highs. We figured at least one of those gaps would get filled, but based on 2025, it wasn't a certainty. For now this looks good, especially with the positive reversal day, but we still have some signs of a peak so more upside would cure that problem.
ACWX (I-fund) did the same thing. It used the 90-minute decline to test its 20-day average and bounce like a champ. The double top pullback may be completed, and it could be done going down, but we'll always be watching that open gap until it's out of the picture.
BND (bonds / F-fund) also dropped and popped after successfully testing the bottom of the wedge pattern we have been watching for months. It has been moving mostly sideways for the last 2 - 3 weeks.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were down yesterday but after a steep midday sell off, they bounced back to close well off their lows, with many charts filling an open gap during that quick, suspicious decline. Technical analysis is working overtime these days as we see all kinds of patterns and gaps doing what the tend to do. That's a good sign for chart readers. It doesn't give us all the answers but some roadmaps are being drawn.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
We'll start with the chart of oil. I know this me repeating the same story, but it this has been the story recently, and as a technical analyst, this head and shoulders patterns is telling an interesting story. We said we could see a right shoulder form, but often head and shoulders patterns eventually breakdown after the shoulder is completed. There are exceptions, but for now this is the Ockham's razor view (theory with the fewest assumptions.)
The S&P 500 (C-fund) created a spinning top candlestick where we saw a fairly wide trading range on Thursday, but the open and close was somewhere in the middle of the highs and low. The previous highs have done a good job of holding as support and the bears have not been able to do much damage, and the dip buyers are quick to act. Gaps are getting filled while others remain open, giving us the biggest question mark as to whether they will get filled. In 2025 most of these similar gaps did not get filled.
This rally off the lows this year has been even more impressive than the one in 2025, which was quite impressive itself. The fact that we've come back so quickly may change how the next few weeks go, but one thing that was prevalent in 2025, was the repeated successful tests of the 20-day moving average while that "V" bottom climbed off the lows.
In 2026 the S&P 500 is still 200-points above its 20-day moving average. Many of those successful tests in 2025 came below the prior highs. This year the S&P is already back above its previous highs, without a test. Too far, too fast?
Here's the returns by month in 2025 vs. what we've seen so far in 2026. In 2025 April had a big positive turnaround but still didn't go positive, where this year's quick rebound has April up big. It's as if the investors who missed out in 2025 were not going to miss out and let that happen again this year, but perhaps that will set up some profit taking in May?
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 was flat yesterday but it had a big positive reversal day - almost as if the midday losses occurred just to fill in the open gap (blue.) That's a good set up for today, but...
... it actually looks a little suspicious, that 90 minute plummet and recovery starting at 1 PM ET. Perhaps dip buyers had their orders in to buy near 200.50? We still have a double top on the daily chart (top.) The question is whether this mild dip is all we'll get off the double top.
Semiconductors were up for a 17th straight trading day yesterday. If that's not a record, it has to be close. Confounding!
I'm on the neutral side feeling like stocks have come a long way in a short time, but the action and momentum is on the bulls' side, so I don't want to get too bearish.
Not the market mover it once was, Intel reported great earnings after the closing bell on Thursday and was trading up over 15% after hours.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) also filled in an open gap with yesterday's midday 90 minute swoon, and it quickly recovered and closed back above the prior highs. We figured at least one of those gaps would get filled, but based on 2025, it wasn't a certainty. For now this looks good, especially with the positive reversal day, but we still have some signs of a peak so more upside would cure that problem.
ACWX (I-fund) did the same thing. It used the 90-minute decline to test its 20-day average and bounce like a champ. The double top pullback may be completed, and it could be done going down, but we'll always be watching that open gap until it's out of the picture.
BND (bonds / F-fund) also dropped and popped after successfully testing the bottom of the wedge pattern we have been watching for months. It has been moving mostly sideways for the last 2 - 3 weeks.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
