Stocks traded in a tight, choppy range yesterday and the indices closed with modest gains. The Dow gained 39-points with the small caps an international fund leading the way.
Today we get the February Jobs Report at 8:30 AM ET and estimates are looking for a gain of 230,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.6%.
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The F-fund (bonds) was up slightly but technically it is in some trouble. I'll show you in the chart down below.
After the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke above the December high (that one odd tick in the SPY did not happen on the S&P 500) in February and so far it has withstood a couple of tests at that old resistance line. The 20-day EMA has also held, and while we saw buyers step up on Thursday, you can feel the tentativeness from the bulls during this recent dip. and yet the S&P 500 is still within 1% of it's all time high. Go figure.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) is also holding above some key support despite the intraday temporary breakdown on Thursday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 has been outperforming recently and it is on the overbought side, but the sideways action has done a lot to alleviate any extreme readings. At this point it is either in some kind of a flag pattern that will break to the upside, or it could rollover and test the support line of the old breakout point.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a nice day on Thursday despite more strength in the U.S. dollar. The 50-day EMA is getting close to moving back above the 200-day EMA, and that would be a bullish longer-term sign, but it could also be a sign of being overbought in the short-term. The recent dip helped it some. Indices need occasional pauses to gather strength for another potential leg higher.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The VIX (Volatility Index) hit the 200-day EMA this week but pulled back again and is trading in a more safe level near 14. If it can stay below 15 we may not see much selling, at least not panic-like selling.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) had created a bear flag, but it (the flag formation) got a little choppy at the end of February before finally breaking down in March. Now it looks like there is a head and shoulder pattern, and they tend to break down while in a downtrend. I would put the initial target of a breakdown near 109.65. It could go lower, but that's the initial H&S technical target.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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