08/04/25
Stocks tumbled on Friday after a weaker than expected jobs report and more changes to the tariff picture. Not only did the jobs number miss by about 25K jobs, but prior months were revised lower throwing into question the strength of the economy. The good news, I suppose, is that the chances of an interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting, based on this data, just shot up dramatically.
Just a reminder that today and tomorrow's commentary will be brief after spending the weekend out of town at my son's wedding, and heading home today. Sorry for any inconvenience.
As usual, the stock market tends to go crazy when I leave town, and Friday did not change that streak.
The jobs report was what it was, weaker than expected giving concerns about economic growth, but as I just mentioned, it could mean a September interest rate cut is going to get priced in.
The weaker data sent yields and the dollar lower, and that helped the F-fund to a nice gain, and the I-fund to a more reasonable loss after a positive reversal in that fund, which will be show down in the next section.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gapped down below the 20-day EMA and for now found support at the second support line, which was the bottom of that old wedge pattern, with only the 50-day EMA below that before a larger void opens up down to the 200 day average would lie in wait if needed. Outside of the S&P 500 we did see some positive reversals in some of the broader indices, which was a good sign.
The futures were up on Sunday night but you can't always trust gap opens on Monday morning. The key is if a positive open gets sold right away, and if sold, do the buyers step up again. Without some kind of news, it would be tough to see stocks "V" bottom its way out of this one. Not that I expect this shake up to cause a major problem for stocks, but it needed a pullback to take some of the extremes out of the market.
The final July AutoTracker numbers are in. You can find the July winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
The DWCPF / S-fund was down sharply but look how buyers stepped up at that 50-day average to take the small caps well off their worst levels of the day. There is a large open gap above that will get filled some day - the question is when, and what happens after it is filled?
ACWX (I-fund) also reversed quite a bit, managing to close a penny above the 50-day average after spending much of the day below it. It was a furious drop from the peak, but an impressive landing so far at that 50 day average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied as yields fell on weak economic data, and also because investors tend to move into bonds when the stock market gets less stable.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks tumbled on Friday after a weaker than expected jobs report and more changes to the tariff picture. Not only did the jobs number miss by about 25K jobs, but prior months were revised lower throwing into question the strength of the economy. The good news, I suppose, is that the chances of an interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting, based on this data, just shot up dramatically.
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Just a reminder that today and tomorrow's commentary will be brief after spending the weekend out of town at my son's wedding, and heading home today. Sorry for any inconvenience.
As usual, the stock market tends to go crazy when I leave town, and Friday did not change that streak.
The jobs report was what it was, weaker than expected giving concerns about economic growth, but as I just mentioned, it could mean a September interest rate cut is going to get priced in.
The weaker data sent yields and the dollar lower, and that helped the F-fund to a nice gain, and the I-fund to a more reasonable loss after a positive reversal in that fund, which will be show down in the next section.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gapped down below the 20-day EMA and for now found support at the second support line, which was the bottom of that old wedge pattern, with only the 50-day EMA below that before a larger void opens up down to the 200 day average would lie in wait if needed. Outside of the S&P 500 we did see some positive reversals in some of the broader indices, which was a good sign.
The futures were up on Sunday night but you can't always trust gap opens on Monday morning. The key is if a positive open gets sold right away, and if sold, do the buyers step up again. Without some kind of news, it would be tough to see stocks "V" bottom its way out of this one. Not that I expect this shake up to cause a major problem for stocks, but it needed a pullback to take some of the extremes out of the market.
The final July AutoTracker numbers are in. You can find the July winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
The DWCPF / S-fund was down sharply but look how buyers stepped up at that 50-day average to take the small caps well off their worst levels of the day. There is a large open gap above that will get filled some day - the question is when, and what happens after it is filled?
ACWX (I-fund) also reversed quite a bit, managing to close a penny above the 50-day average after spending much of the day below it. It was a furious drop from the peak, but an impressive landing so far at that 50 day average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied as yields fell on weak economic data, and also because investors tend to move into bonds when the stock market gets less stable.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
