Stocks rally on EU stimulus talk


Stocks soared on Thursday after a better than expected Existing Home Sales report, strong earnings reports, and more possible stimulus from the ECB - European Central Bank. The Dow jumped 321-points, and while all of the major indices were up strongly, the small caps did lag.

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On top of the big day, there were some big earnings surprises from a few of the big boys, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, that sent the futures shooting even higher so we might expect another gap up opening on Friday.


This chart shows where the market closed and what happened after the those earnings reports were released... The Nasdaq did even better after hours.

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The small caps of the Dow Completion Index, or S-fund, actually looked to be folding midday as it dropped precipitously in early afternoon trading, losing all its morning gains, but eventually made a new daily low after 2 PM. It did end up lagging on the day (gaining less than half of the S&P) but that low was bought and we had a "V" recovery into the close, although it did not close at its daily high like the S&P and Nasdaq did.

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The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) blasted through some of the toughest resistance it has seen since the August lows. Volume was up and it was no doubt impressive, and this was likely due to the hint of more stimulus in Europe. The problem now is, as is the case after any big rally, whether or not profit taking will kick in.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) lagged and it is a little troubling, if you're looking for trouble, that it still has not been able to break above the 50-day EMA, and it actually closed below where it was two weeks ago. Just something to keep an eye on if you are deciding between the C, S, and I-funds.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Transportation Index had a big day and it continues to attempt to break above the 200-day EMA, but remains below. It looks to be trying to breakout above a bull flag.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up over 1% and the inverted head and shoulders is still testing the neckline.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was surprisingly buoyant while stocks were rallying. This has been the question for me. Why aren't investors bailing on bonds if the stock market is doing so well? Bond traders are usually a little more savvy than the average stock market investor so we should not dismiss the continued strength in bonds if you ask me.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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