02/26/26
Stocks rallied yesterday following the State of the Union address, and before Nvidia earnings, which appeared to be good after the closing bell, but the reaction was tepid. Wednesday's gains pushed some of the indices toward to upper end of their recent ranges. Nothing is settled but the bulls are showing they haven't given up yet, however they have more work to do.
It was another good day for market breadth with advancers easily beating declining issues, and there were almost three new 52-week highs on the Nasdaq for every new low, unlike Tuesday's rally, which saw more new lows.
Nvidia's earnings beat on the top and bottom lines - revenue and earnings per share, and initially it was initially trading up about +3% but later the stock was drifting lower and risking giving back the gain. As good as this stock has been for investors, we have seen it rally after reporting earnings before, and then nose-dive afterward.
Last February Nvidia gapped up to 135 the day after reporting on 2/26, and that was the peak for a while until it finally bottomed in April, which of course had a lot to do with the tariff tantrum last year when everything was falling.
But the longer it moves sideways while earnings grow rapidly, the more likely it is just a matter of time before it is making new highs again. Whether that's next month or a year from now, I don't know. But the company is a monster and it is in almost every fund manager's portfolio.
The post State of the Union address response was positive, or at least nothing was said to scare the market, as we might have expected, as they tend to be dovish in nature. The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed above a resistance line that had been holding for over a week, and with that purple moving average holding, and a bullish looking flag forming, the bulls are doing a good job of fighting off the cases that the bears are making. Two cases that I have been giving have been the six Hindenburg Omen signals we have gotten in the previous month, and the bearish Wyckoff Distribution pattern, which is still technically intact. The chart looks better, but without a breakout, we may be talking about the bottom the range again soon. There is now an open gap at 6890.
The Transportation Index took a day off yesterday and retested its 20-day average for support. Nothing is broken yet, but it could be in need of more consolidation after the strong 3-month rally. The question would be, what would the rest of the stock market do if this leader takes a nap for a while?
A little follow up on the financials, which were looking bad and a possible warning for the broader market: Like most sectors, it rallied strongly yesterday, but it will have to deal with the 200-day moving average here soon - something that isn't always easy to recapture so quickly, once below it.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice follow through day, but there is resistance near 2600. Support is also holding but the head and shoulders pattern makes that vulnerable. Anyone have a coin? I wish I was better than that, but I don't have anything better to go on yet. Unlike the S&P 500 chart, this one quickly filled its gap from yesterday morning.
The ACWX (I fund) put up another 1% gain. Ho, hum. The trend is your friend, but if you're not in it now, it would be a tough call to chase. There's another open gap at 74 to consider.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly as it digests the recent gains. A pullback to the blue line looks possible, making it tough to be a buyer despite the bullish action.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yesterday following the State of the Union address, and before Nvidia earnings, which appeared to be good after the closing bell, but the reaction was tepid. Wednesday's gains pushed some of the indices toward to upper end of their recent ranges. Nothing is settled but the bulls are showing they haven't given up yet, however they have more work to do.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
It was another good day for market breadth with advancers easily beating declining issues, and there were almost three new 52-week highs on the Nasdaq for every new low, unlike Tuesday's rally, which saw more new lows.
Nvidia's earnings beat on the top and bottom lines - revenue and earnings per share, and initially it was initially trading up about +3% but later the stock was drifting lower and risking giving back the gain. As good as this stock has been for investors, we have seen it rally after reporting earnings before, and then nose-dive afterward.
Last February Nvidia gapped up to 135 the day after reporting on 2/26, and that was the peak for a while until it finally bottomed in April, which of course had a lot to do with the tariff tantrum last year when everything was falling.
But the longer it moves sideways while earnings grow rapidly, the more likely it is just a matter of time before it is making new highs again. Whether that's next month or a year from now, I don't know. But the company is a monster and it is in almost every fund manager's portfolio.
The post State of the Union address response was positive, or at least nothing was said to scare the market, as we might have expected, as they tend to be dovish in nature. The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed above a resistance line that had been holding for over a week, and with that purple moving average holding, and a bullish looking flag forming, the bulls are doing a good job of fighting off the cases that the bears are making. Two cases that I have been giving have been the six Hindenburg Omen signals we have gotten in the previous month, and the bearish Wyckoff Distribution pattern, which is still technically intact. The chart looks better, but without a breakout, we may be talking about the bottom the range again soon. There is now an open gap at 6890.
The Transportation Index took a day off yesterday and retested its 20-day average for support. Nothing is broken yet, but it could be in need of more consolidation after the strong 3-month rally. The question would be, what would the rest of the stock market do if this leader takes a nap for a while?
A little follow up on the financials, which were looking bad and a possible warning for the broader market: Like most sectors, it rallied strongly yesterday, but it will have to deal with the 200-day moving average here soon - something that isn't always easy to recapture so quickly, once below it.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice follow through day, but there is resistance near 2600. Support is also holding but the head and shoulders pattern makes that vulnerable. Anyone have a coin? I wish I was better than that, but I don't have anything better to go on yet. Unlike the S&P 500 chart, this one quickly filled its gap from yesterday morning.
The ACWX (I fund) put up another 1% gain. Ho, hum. The trend is your friend, but if you're not in it now, it would be a tough call to chase. There's another open gap at 74 to consider.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly as it digests the recent gains. A pullback to the blue line looks possible, making it tough to be a buyer despite the bullish action.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
