03/05/26
Stocks rallied yesterday following Tuesday's dramatic positive reversal day. The good news was that the gains held most of the day. The bad news is the indices did little after the initial morning rally. We got better than expected ADP Employment data along with strong ISM Services PMI data that pushed yields up, and the F-fund down.
The action was bullish but the rally stalled quickly, and trading volume was light the past two days, so the bears have some excuses to make another move. A test of the recent lows, or an attempt, is not out of the question at this point, and that makes any recaptured support that much more crucial.
Bitcoin may be a tell, although the stock market seems to have ignored it recently with it falling 50% off its October highs in recent months. Then again, perhaps that is one of the reasons for the major market indices being flat for the last five months? After a 7.5% rally yesterday, bitcoin finds itself at the 50-day moving average and at the top of a bear flag. Bitcoin investors have felt the pain following these types of rallies recently. The 75,000 area will be a key pivot point.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a good day, but it is still below that 30-day average, a level it has struggled to get, and stay, above over the last several weeks. The trading range remains intact. The blue bull flag-flag formation looks promising, but it must get above resistance before we talk about a breakout. We're still at 7 Hindenburg Omen Signals, and the Wyckoff Distribution pattern is till in play.
The Nasdaq made more 52-week lows (102) yesterday than new highs (95). The NYSE had 74 new highs and just 19 new lows.
Yields were up moderately yesterday but the dollar (UUP) falling helped prices rally in several sectors yesterday. The chart is at some support now, but there is also a big open gap near 27.1 that could be a lure. Whether it pulls down to that level or not may determine if the rally in stocks can continue or not.
The price of oil closed at its highest price in over a year, but the stock market did brush that off yesterday. We've seen these spikes before when conflicts in the Middle East start up, but in recent years, each time it came back down quickly.
The Transportation Index was up modestly and continued to hold above its 20-day moving average. It looks to be coil up for a bigger move at some point in the near future.
The market is at a typical fork in the road where investors try to decide if the recent sell off was a warning and the start of something more troubling, or just another buying opportunity in a bull market.
We will get the February Jobs Report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) has recaptured some important levels in the last couple of days, but the bearish head and shoulders pattern is still viable, and a threat.
ACWX (I-fund) led the way with a gain of over 1% yesterday, but the TSP didn't give the gain for some reason? That's interesting. It should mean a positive adjustment for Thursday's price. It is trying to fill in at least one of the large gaps opened in the last few trading days. This is a case where we will look back and say that decline needed to be bought, or it was a warning sign after breaking some support, and the rally needed to be sold.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has experienced a needed pulled back this week, and so far some key support has held.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yesterday following Tuesday's dramatic positive reversal day. The good news was that the gains held most of the day. The bad news is the indices did little after the initial morning rally. We got better than expected ADP Employment data along with strong ISM Services PMI data that pushed yields up, and the F-fund down.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The action was bullish but the rally stalled quickly, and trading volume was light the past two days, so the bears have some excuses to make another move. A test of the recent lows, or an attempt, is not out of the question at this point, and that makes any recaptured support that much more crucial.
Bitcoin may be a tell, although the stock market seems to have ignored it recently with it falling 50% off its October highs in recent months. Then again, perhaps that is one of the reasons for the major market indices being flat for the last five months? After a 7.5% rally yesterday, bitcoin finds itself at the 50-day moving average and at the top of a bear flag. Bitcoin investors have felt the pain following these types of rallies recently. The 75,000 area will be a key pivot point.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a good day, but it is still below that 30-day average, a level it has struggled to get, and stay, above over the last several weeks. The trading range remains intact. The blue bull flag-flag formation looks promising, but it must get above resistance before we talk about a breakout. We're still at 7 Hindenburg Omen Signals, and the Wyckoff Distribution pattern is till in play.
The Nasdaq made more 52-week lows (102) yesterday than new highs (95). The NYSE had 74 new highs and just 19 new lows.
Yields were up moderately yesterday but the dollar (UUP) falling helped prices rally in several sectors yesterday. The chart is at some support now, but there is also a big open gap near 27.1 that could be a lure. Whether it pulls down to that level or not may determine if the rally in stocks can continue or not.
The price of oil closed at its highest price in over a year, but the stock market did brush that off yesterday. We've seen these spikes before when conflicts in the Middle East start up, but in recent years, each time it came back down quickly.
The Transportation Index was up modestly and continued to hold above its 20-day moving average. It looks to be coil up for a bigger move at some point in the near future.
The market is at a typical fork in the road where investors try to decide if the recent sell off was a warning and the start of something more troubling, or just another buying opportunity in a bull market.
We will get the February Jobs Report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) has recaptured some important levels in the last couple of days, but the bearish head and shoulders pattern is still viable, and a threat.
ACWX (I-fund) led the way with a gain of over 1% yesterday, but the TSP didn't give the gain for some reason? That's interesting. It should mean a positive adjustment for Thursday's price. It is trying to fill in at least one of the large gaps opened in the last few trading days. This is a case where we will look back and say that decline needed to be bought, or it was a warning sign after breaking some support, and the rally needed to be sold.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has experienced a needed pulled back this week, and so far some key support has held.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
