Stocks dismiss oil production deal breakdown

Stocks opened lower on Monday but the buyers stepped right in and took the indices higher all day. The "bad news" over no oil production cuts that sent the futures lower overnight, and the triggered the lower open, was quickly dismissed and the Dow ended the day up 107-points.

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Oil did open sharply lower and did fill that open gap at $40 and briefly fell below $39, but it too reversed course as the day went on and finished well off the lows and closed with just modest losses.

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After the bell yesterday earnings from IBM and Netflix were disappointing as they each gave negative guidance. Their respective stocks fell in after hours trading, but I don' even know if earnings matters to this market anymore.

CITI downgraded the U.S. economic outlook, lowering growth estimates to < 2% for this year and just about 2% for next year. Again, does it even matter or is it all about the Fed and monetary policy?
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) hit the November high yesterday and closed right on it. You would think that this would present some resistance, but as you'll see in the next chart, the actual S&P 500 Index isn't at the old highs yet and has some room to run, before it hits the 2015 highs.

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There were peaks in November in 2015, and in July. The resistance being tested now is the descending resistance lines off those highs.

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The small caps of the Russell 2000 have rallied strongly but it is well off its 2015 highs, but it recently broke above the descending resistance line.

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The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) pulled back to the 200-day EMA and popped back up, triggered by the early reversal in U.S. stocks. The two large gaps remain open below the 200-day EMA.

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The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was flat and holds in the small basing formation below the 111 breakout level.

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Tom Crowley


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