09/04/25
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday but the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices did great thanks to Google, while the rest of the market was flat at best. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index (same 500 stocks) was actually down 0.15% yesterday because Google and Apple are not top heavy in that index. The Dow has been down 4 days in a row and we got some questionable jobs data as JOLTS, the job openings data, shows fewer jobs available.
Google (aka Alphabet) and Apple did a good job of masking a modest pullback that the market has been longing for. Stocks were flat at best but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are heavily weighted with those two companies. That is why the Dow and the small caps were down. Google (GOOG class A and C shares) is not in either of those indices but it takes up the # 6 and # 8 top spots in the S&P 500, and both were up 9.0% yesterday.
Otherwise it was a split day and we actually almost had as many new 52-week lows as new highs on the day in the Nasdaq, which was up 1%.
Still, the market is behaving well despite several signs that could be trying to tell us otherwise. Whether it'ss Google, Apple, or small caps, something seems to rise to the occasion to keep the bull market rolling.
After Tuesday's positive reversal day, stocks were able to follow through on Wednesday, and while it was enough to push the S&P 500 / C-fund back into the blue rising trading channel, so far it has only filled in (almost) the open gap from Tuesday morning.
The PMO Indicator is still flashing that negative divergence.
If the Fed wasn't getting ready to cut interest rates one, two or maybe three times this year, I'd be a lot more concerned. I am worried about some short-term volatility, but I was worried in August as well and nothing ever manifested. The bulls do have that advantage of dovish monetary policy coming, unless the Fed is feigning a cut, and it may be keeping investors from any profit taking.
After a double top pullback in July, the economically sensitive Dow Transportation Index has been floundering, and it seems to be rolling over after a lower high. The 50 and 200-day moving averages are now in a must hold situation.
The 10-year Treasury Yield came crashing right back down after the rallying yield hubbub a day earlier. With the jobs report coming up, this formation is trying to tell us that yields may be breaking down soon - although the bond market always seems to like to do what I least expect, so that's not a prediction; just a comment on the current technical picture.
The August jobs report will come out on Friday and estimates are looking for 63K to 78K jobs being added. Low expectations.
Admin Notes:
It's time for the annual NFL Survivor Contest! It's free! Please go here for details: The deadline to sign up is the kick off of the first game on Sunday.
The DWCPF (S-fund) closed 2,429.93, which was down -5.29 (-0.22%) on the day. There were some reporting issues on the prices the last couple of days so the chart is a mess, on any website I could find it. Hopefully they fix this soon.
ACWX (I-fund) seems to have found support at the bottom of that trading channel again. Was that the opportunity many folks have been waiting for to get in the hottest fund in the TSP? The action yesterday did not quite fill in an open gap (near 62.60), and what happens after that gap is filled will help dictate the next move. It is still in a short-term downtrend.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up with yields dropping again. Here it is poking its head back above the resistance that has been stubborn lately. The jobs data this weak could make or break this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday but the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices did great thanks to Google, while the rest of the market was flat at best. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index (same 500 stocks) was actually down 0.15% yesterday because Google and Apple are not top heavy in that index. The Dow has been down 4 days in a row and we got some questionable jobs data as JOLTS, the job openings data, shows fewer jobs available.
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Google (aka Alphabet) and Apple did a good job of masking a modest pullback that the market has been longing for. Stocks were flat at best but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are heavily weighted with those two companies. That is why the Dow and the small caps were down. Google (GOOG class A and C shares) is not in either of those indices but it takes up the # 6 and # 8 top spots in the S&P 500, and both were up 9.0% yesterday.
Otherwise it was a split day and we actually almost had as many new 52-week lows as new highs on the day in the Nasdaq, which was up 1%.
Still, the market is behaving well despite several signs that could be trying to tell us otherwise. Whether it'ss Google, Apple, or small caps, something seems to rise to the occasion to keep the bull market rolling.
After Tuesday's positive reversal day, stocks were able to follow through on Wednesday, and while it was enough to push the S&P 500 / C-fund back into the blue rising trading channel, so far it has only filled in (almost) the open gap from Tuesday morning.
The PMO Indicator is still flashing that negative divergence.
If the Fed wasn't getting ready to cut interest rates one, two or maybe three times this year, I'd be a lot more concerned. I am worried about some short-term volatility, but I was worried in August as well and nothing ever manifested. The bulls do have that advantage of dovish monetary policy coming, unless the Fed is feigning a cut, and it may be keeping investors from any profit taking.
After a double top pullback in July, the economically sensitive Dow Transportation Index has been floundering, and it seems to be rolling over after a lower high. The 50 and 200-day moving averages are now in a must hold situation.
The 10-year Treasury Yield came crashing right back down after the rallying yield hubbub a day earlier. With the jobs report coming up, this formation is trying to tell us that yields may be breaking down soon - although the bond market always seems to like to do what I least expect, so that's not a prediction; just a comment on the current technical picture.
The August jobs report will come out on Friday and estimates are looking for 63K to 78K jobs being added. Low expectations.
Admin Notes:
It's time for the annual NFL Survivor Contest! It's free! Please go here for details: The deadline to sign up is the kick off of the first game on Sunday.
The DWCPF (S-fund) closed 2,429.93, which was down -5.29 (-0.22%) on the day. There were some reporting issues on the prices the last couple of days so the chart is a mess, on any website I could find it. Hopefully they fix this soon.
ACWX (I-fund) seems to have found support at the bottom of that trading channel again. Was that the opportunity many folks have been waiting for to get in the hottest fund in the TSP? The action yesterday did not quite fill in an open gap (near 62.60), and what happens after that gap is filled will help dictate the next move. It is still in a short-term downtrend.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up with yields dropping again. Here it is poking its head back above the resistance that has been stubborn lately. The jobs data this weak could make or break this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
