Sticky Pants
For you new folks that don't know, I spent 2009 in the bottom of the auto tracker. Contrary to popular belief, when you're at the bottom it's really not all that stressful. Thing is nobody expects anything from you and if your wrong well who'd you surprise?
For me, it's more stressful to make a gain and stay in the game when every part of me wants to bail really really bad. Wednesday night I had plans to bail based on the retail report, but it wasn't better than expected so I stayed in. Now it seems others in the forum are getting the same vibe as me, so this makes me wonder will tomorrow be a large down day? Still, I have to retrain my brain to think like a long-term investor because I believe over the long run TSP thrives best under this strategy.
Although the Bond's Market Quilt has gained strength, I still think it's a short term play at best. Every chart is in yellow which is a much improved condition from the all red status it was just last week. AGG did push prices up another level but appears to have been trading sideways over the last 3 days. However, based on the G-Fund paying out 3.5% I won't be playing the F-Fund anytime soon.
It's all green for the American Market Quilt. Most of the charts are within narrowing trading ranges so I'm lead to believe we might be getting ready for that sideways action again, only at a higher level than what we saw in December.
The I-Fund Currencies Market Quilt has turned quite a bit. While the Dollar is declining in a previous now debunked bull flag, I'm still a bit concerned. It's trading at the bottom of the bollinger band and I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 20 again. Also, notice the lack of commitment from the Euro.
The I-Fund markets have picked up some momentum since I last posted this chart. EFA has put in a breakout with a higher high in both price and on the slow stochastic. All-in-all, I'm happy with my I-fund allocation and its performance.
As for the Big 3, I'm a bit surprised the S&P 500 put in a 52 week high today while the Transports & NASDAQ didn't. To see prices push higher, I'd like to see the NASDAQ put in a higher swing high tomorrow. This would give me a warm fuzzy inside.
Take care and thanks for reading... Jason
