Steel_Magnolia's Account Talk

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The C and S Fund analogs are above their 3 day, 10 day, 50 day and 200 day moving averages. So although this is a down day, they are still showing both short term and long term momentum.

The I Fund is above its 3, 50 and 200 day moving averages but not above its 10 day average. What I'm getting from this is that the I Fund is showing long term momentum and as its short term momentum picks up, the fund may be gearing up once again to outperform.

That's just my take. YMMV. But even if you disagree, have a cookie before you go!
 
No cookies for me, thanks. I'm trying to lose a few pounds...but a thought just crossed my mind.

Just because you have liquidated your real TSP is no reason you should leave the tracker. I know theres some debate about whether your real TSP should match exactly the tracker but I see no reason you can't keep playing along.

Thoughts?
 
KevinD said:
No cookies for me, thanks. I'm trying to lose a few pounds...but a thought just crossed my mind.

Just because you have liquidated your real TSP is no reason you should leave the tracker. I know theres some debate about whether your real TSP should match exactly the tracker but I see no reason you can't keep playing along.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Well, thanks for letting me know how you feel, my friend. I didn't want to ruffle any feathers. But I'd be happy to keep playing on the tracker. I'm actually making most of my short-term plays using the SCI and F analogs because those are what I know the best.

Anyone have any objection to me staying on the tracker? If so, please speak up! No risk of bad feelings - - feedback is a gift. So what do you think??
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
Well, thanks for letting me know how you feel, my friend. I didn't want to ruffle any feathers. But I'd be happy to keep playing on the tracker. I'm actually making most of my short-term plays using the SCI and F analogs because those are what I know the best.

Anyone have any objection to me staying on the tracker? If so, please speak up! No risk of bad feelings - - feedback is a gift. So what do you think??
Click to expand...
Stay,

I like your cookies....Must be the oven in the new house......You settled yet?:D
 
I vote stay.

Thanks for the cookies.

I have a request. On your next batch of raisin oatmeal cookies could you add a little powered sugar on top. That's the way my grandma made them. Thanks. :)
 
I'm a trend trader and my favorite chart indicators are the moving averages. In my attempts to simplify signals for stocks and ETFs, I made a chart that tells me at a glance how a stock is doing.

Here is the chart for the funds I use as analogs for the TSP funds and the dollar.

View attachment 10771

As you can see, the only fund that is doing well now is AGG, the F Fund analog. But SPY (C Fund), IWM (S Fund), and EFA (I Fund) are now above their 3-day averages, which means they may start to build momentum. In addition, IWM and SPY are above their 100 day averages, which is something I look for before I invest in anything. Based on this chart, I won't invest in anything quite yet, but I will keep a close eye on C and S Fund analogs.

I hope this chart is of interest to you. And before you go, please have a cookie. Today they are raisin oatmeal cookies with a sprinkle of powdered sugar on top. Nasa, did I get the recipe right? <grin>
​
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Nice analytics chart. Do you build that yourself or is there a website for it? :)
Click to expand...
I built it using freestockcharts.com. It is an excellent site that I cannot recommend enough. A person can design exactly the technicals they are looking for using this site, and it is realtime and free. The site contains advertising but it isn't intrusive. No pop-ups or other garbage like that.

I use stockcharts.com for some things, but freestockcharts.com is my GoTo site. Check it out. I think you'll like it.
 
Here is the latest analytical chart, as of 12:30 pm MDT. The S Fund analog, IWM, is looking nice!

View attachment 10786

Please let me know if you have any questions. And while you're here, grab a cookie! Today they are healthy but good, my own recipe. Made with spelt flour, applesauce, yogurt, agave, cranberries and walnuts, and the grandkids love them!

Maggie
​
 
Here is today's analytical chart, as of 930 am MDT. It makes an interesting comparison to yesterday's chart. Not much change, you say? Exactly!

Up days and down days and ... what?

View attachment 10788

Please let me know if you have any questions, and don't forget your cookie!
​
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
Here is today's analytical chart, as of 930 am MDT. It makes an interesting comparison to yesterday's chart. Not much change, you say? Exactly!

Up days and down days and ... what?



Please let me know if you have any questions, and don't forget your cookie!​
Click to expand...

Can you explain your chart in elementary terms so the dumb can understand? :D In your previous charts you said "F" was looking good and on a more recent one, you stated the "S" looked good. Can you explain how your chart allows you to draw those conclusions? I would love to be able to use ANY of the charts that everyone so kindly takes the time to share. Thanks.:)
 
jpcavin said:
Can you explain your chart in elementary terms ....
Click to expand...

Certainly. I would be happy to do so, and thanks for your visit to my home!


First of all, the funds that are being tracked in this chart are AGG (similar to the F Fund), EFA (similar to the I Fund), IWM (similar to the S Fund), SPY (similar to the C Fund), and UUP, a US dollar index which often moves the opposite way that the I Fund does.

The second column is today's fund price, and the third column is the percentage of price change from yesterday.

The next column, "Volume Buzz," is one that I find can give important clues. It tracks the rate of change in volume of fund buys and sells since yesterday. It is important to remember here that it only tracks rate of change. A big positive number is not necessarily a good thing, it just means that there is a big increase in interest in the fund, it could be buying or it could be selling. A negative number means that people aren't as interested in making changes to their holdings in the fund, it doesn't necessarily mean that people are selling. So how does it help? Well, put Volume Buzz together with % Change and you can get a good idea of where the fund is going in the short term.

The yellow and orange colored balls are also short term indicators. They appear when today's price of the fund is above the 3-day (yellow) or 10-day (orange) average of daily prices. The light blue ball shows if a fund's current price is above the 20-day average, which is approximately one month of market prices.

Then we get to the longer term averages. The light green ball shows when a fund's current prices are above the 50-day average, about two and a half months of market prices. The medium green ball indicates a current price that is above the 100-day average, or six months. And the dark green ball appears if a fund's prices are above the 200-day average, which is about a year.

And conversely, the red balls appear if a fund's current price is below the 3-day, 20-day or 50-day average of prices.

The last two columns are "Relative Strength 1-Year vs SP-500" and "Latest Short Interest Ratio." The Relative Strength column shows me whether the fund is doing better or worse than the S&P 500 on a yearly basis. SPY will always be at 100% because it is being measured against itself.

And the last column, Short Interest Ratio, tells me how many days it would take for short sellers to cover their entire positions if the price of the fund begins to rise. A low number is good for the bulls and a higher number is good for the bears.

Clear as mud? Please let me know if you have any questions or if I can make something more clear. And before you go, have a cookie!

Maggie
 
Thank you for explaining to such detail. Very useful and very much appreciated. :) Cookie was wonderful. :toung:. May have to stop by again sometime. Let me know when they are warm and right out of the oven. :D
 
I see!:sick: I may have to take a 1% loss and go into G. If I only had a clue of when it might pick up positive momentum....:D
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
There is a big difference between yesterday's chart and today's chart... Danger, Will Robinson!
Click to expand...

Steel_Magnolia,

I love the color scheme. I'm very much a pattern analyst and seeing the major red to maroon is a great at-a-glance warning of danger. The yellow/orange and blue to green is a great for positive visual clues.

Thanks for sharing this. Another good tool to add to our retirement investing toolkit.
 
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