Here's a quick June review: June 2023 closed up 6.47%.
From 1960, June 2023, ranked as the 2nd best of 64 Junes placing it in the Top 3%. Of the past 762 Months, it ranked 54th, placing it in the Top 7%. This is the 4th consecutive month we’ve closed up.
Historically, July is one of the worst performing of the 12 Months. It is the 1st of the worst 3 Months, the 2nd of the worst 4 Months, and the 3rd of the worst 6 Months of the year. But while July does have a low winning ratio, it stacks up well in the other categories.
It has the 11th best win ratio at 52% (below the 756 Monthly win ratio of 60%)
It has the 3rd best average-of-all-gains at 4.04%.
It has the 7th best average at .87%.
It has the best average-of-all-loses at -2.62%.
Digging down into July.
The good news. The past 21 years have a 71% win ratio. When June closed above the 12-Month SMA, July had a 56% win ratio. The bad news, overall July has weak win ratios, but when it does win, the average-of-all-gains is typically higher than the 63-Year monthly 3.34% average.
For July (based on historical averages), buyers may want to step in at or below 4334 which is also an area of the most recent -2.71% pullback. Sellers may want to step out at or above 4630, an area about 4% above current levels.
Lastly, as a word of caution, the S&P 500’s price is 11.20% above the 200-SMA. Compared to the previous 21-years, this is in the top 9% (Percentile range). This is the highest we’ve been above the 200-SMA since 3 Sep 2021 or 457 trading sessions.
Have a great Month!
From 1960, June 2023, ranked as the 2nd best of 64 Junes placing it in the Top 3%. Of the past 762 Months, it ranked 54th, placing it in the Top 7%. This is the 4th consecutive month we’ve closed up.
Historically, July is one of the worst performing of the 12 Months. It is the 1st of the worst 3 Months, the 2nd of the worst 4 Months, and the 3rd of the worst 6 Months of the year. But while July does have a low winning ratio, it stacks up well in the other categories.
It has the 11th best win ratio at 52% (below the 756 Monthly win ratio of 60%)
It has the 3rd best average-of-all-gains at 4.04%.
It has the 7th best average at .87%.
It has the best average-of-all-loses at -2.62%.
Digging down into July.
The good news. The past 21 years have a 71% win ratio. When June closed above the 12-Month SMA, July had a 56% win ratio. The bad news, overall July has weak win ratios, but when it does win, the average-of-all-gains is typically higher than the 63-Year monthly 3.34% average.
For July (based on historical averages), buyers may want to step in at or below 4334 which is also an area of the most recent -2.71% pullback. Sellers may want to step out at or above 4630, an area about 4% above current levels.
Lastly, as a word of caution, the S&P 500’s price is 11.20% above the 200-SMA. Compared to the previous 21-years, this is in the top 9% (Percentile range). This is the highest we’ve been above the 200-SMA since 3 Sep 2021 or 457 trading sessions.
Have a great Month!
