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Ranking 4th of 64, November 2023 closed up 8.92%. This positive close has finalized our 3-Month losing streak and closed us back above the 12-Month Simple Moving Average. From the chart below, our MTD high was 9.39% while our MTD low was .09%
For some perspective, November closed YTD at 18.97%. This is above the 15.11% average-of-all-gains. If we were to close the year today, then 2023 would rank 20th of 64 years.
Looking at December, historically we have the best win ratio at 73%, the 9th best average-of-gains at 2.77%, the 3rd best total average at 1.29%, and the 2nd best average-of-loses at -2.70%.
Digging further down into December, the chart below shows the most recent 21-years are the weakest of the three 21-year increments (perhaps some front-running has developed in November). Overall these are good seasonal stats with an average composite winning ratio of 71%.
For November’s historical closing range, buyers may want to step in at (or below) 4443 while sellers may want to exit at (or above) 4712. These levels are based on the average intra-month low & high.
I'm trying to keep the Monthly blog on the 63-year timeframe. If you’re interested in December’s Daily 21-year stats, they were previously posted in the JTH Account Talk thread. Thanks for reading, have a great month and a great finish for 2023.
Ranking 4th of 64, November 2023 closed up 8.92%. This positive close has finalized our 3-Month losing streak and closed us back above the 12-Month Simple Moving Average. From the chart below, our MTD high was 9.39% while our MTD low was .09%
For some perspective, November closed YTD at 18.97%. This is above the 15.11% average-of-all-gains. If we were to close the year today, then 2023 would rank 20th of 64 years.
Looking at December, historically we have the best win ratio at 73%, the 9th best average-of-gains at 2.77%, the 3rd best total average at 1.29%, and the 2nd best average-of-loses at -2.70%.
Digging further down into December, the chart below shows the most recent 21-years are the weakest of the three 21-year increments (perhaps some front-running has developed in November). Overall these are good seasonal stats with an average composite winning ratio of 71%.
For November’s historical closing range, buyers may want to step in at (or below) 4443 while sellers may want to exit at (or above) 4712. These levels are based on the average intra-month low & high.
I'm trying to keep the Monthly blog on the 63-year timeframe. If you’re interested in December’s Daily 21-year stats, they were previously posted in the JTH Account Talk thread. Thanks for reading, have a great month and a great finish for 2023.
