Statistics, anybody?

[James48843]

So I’m looking at the market today- and seeing the S fund is going to be UP more than 8.5% for the month.

And it’s only the 13th of the month.

Question: How many times has the S fund risen more than 8% in a month, and what has happened in the months that have followed?

I’m feeling very exposed to a possible backslide here.

 

[WorkFE]

So I’m looking at the market today- and seeing the S fund is going to be UP more than 8.5% for the month.

And it’s only the 13th of the month.

Question: How many times has the S fund risen more than 8% in a month, and what has happened in the months that have followed?

I’m feeling very exposed to a possible backslide here.

I suppose that backslide is possible, but as far as it fell in Mar-Apr it could easily continue to forward slide. For me, if I had gained 8% in 2 weeks I would probably be out. FOMO can be a powerful thing.

 

[JTH]

Sry James, I haven't been tracking much lately, but here's the SPX as a proxy.

Here's the 34 best months from 1962 that were >7.5% followed by the next 1-6 month performance.
Under those circumstance there was 1 month that closed higher in March-2009 (11th from the bottom).
That next month is April-2009 15th from the Top. Still a good 70% win ratio for 1-Month after C1 (where you are now).
As you can see of the 10 months where 1-Month closed down 8 closed down in 2-Month.

With 14 down in 2-Month, this is more inline with your typical 2-Month 63% win ratio.

 

[tsptalk]

Great job, JTH!

Taking profits is almost never a bad idea, but it's one reason I rarely hit homeruns with stocks, ETFs, etc. Mostly singles and doubles.