Back on my 2 Dec blog I pointed out that the Seven Sentinels were all flashing buys, but that I couldn't confirm the signal without NYMO hitting a new 28 day trading high. On 3 Dec the Sentinels remained in an unconfirmed buy mode. I chose to err on the side of caution as I was concerned about whipsaws, which is what the signal confirmation is suppose to help mitigate. But I did say that if one is more inclined towards risk, you may want to buy this market anyway even though I myself would not.
But volatile action has not been there and it now appears that the buy signal generated on 2 Dec was valid. Today, the Sentinels have all gone to a buy condition once again only this time it's with confirmation as NYMO hit a 28 day trading high today.
Here's the charts:
I'm not going to go over each one, but all signals are now flashing buys.
Here's the 28 day trading high confirmation.
So the system is now on a confirmed buy.
Now consider all that you've heard about this market. The relatively high bullish levels, the Fed accommodation, the current seasonality we find ourselves in, the low volume environment, and the lack of volatility (VIX).
Taken together you may or may not want to buy this market right here. While I don't think the holiday period is going to see a turn, it's the end of the quarter and a new year is drawing near, so it's possible that a turn could happen in the not-so-distant future. Last January saw a hard turn down in the middle of the month after a Santa Clause rally, so risk is still very much present.
I am considering taking a small stock position, which would allow me to have some exposure to the market while still keeping risk relatively low.
But volatile action has not been there and it now appears that the buy signal generated on 2 Dec was valid. Today, the Sentinels have all gone to a buy condition once again only this time it's with confirmation as NYMO hit a 28 day trading high today.
Here's the charts:
I'm not going to go over each one, but all signals are now flashing buys.
Here's the 28 day trading high confirmation.
So the system is now on a confirmed buy.
Now consider all that you've heard about this market. The relatively high bullish levels, the Fed accommodation, the current seasonality we find ourselves in, the low volume environment, and the lack of volatility (VIX).
Taken together you may or may not want to buy this market right here. While I don't think the holiday period is going to see a turn, it's the end of the quarter and a new year is drawing near, so it's possible that a turn could happen in the not-so-distant future. Last January saw a hard turn down in the middle of the month after a Santa Clause rally, so risk is still very much present.
I am considering taking a small stock position, which would allow me to have some exposure to the market while still keeping risk relatively low.
