Soldat's Account Talk

[Soldat]

First off, I am a N00B to TSP. Started 01Dec04 and as of this post I have only $5298 in TSP. Of this, I have invested $4980.

Stayed G fund until May, then more or less 40% S \40% I \20% C Until the S fund fell. Then, went over to 80% S and 20%C to squeeze every last nickel out of the I.

100% S on 27 Oct. Nov allocation adjusted account to 90% S \ 10% G. 88% S \ 12% F effective 03Nov05.

If the market is strong today, 03Nov, I sell and move to 100%F. I feel that the F bonds are due a .22 share increase before Dec 27. But also, I feel that the S will reach 16.12 - 16.22 before 26 Dec.

I think that the S will drop again, at least once, before holding through mid-december. I think my best move is to sell S within the next couple days, ride F up .15/share then buy in S again when it is low at the end of this month ~ 26Nov. Regardless of what happens, 100%G effective around 22-24Dec, I feel the drop coming early this year.

Let me know what you think.

 

[Soldat]

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Market looks strong, 100% F - I have a feeling and some good info that bonds are on the rebound. We will see. Looks like the market will hold fast today.

Let me know how you guys are holding up.

 

[Soldat]

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Market gave back a few points but still finished up. Looks like a good time to buy bonds too. Going to try to buy into either S or I, at 15.35 or 16.25 respectively. Hopefully the info I recieved on bonds is solid and I can ride them up at least .10/share while S and I level out.
100%F effective COB 03Nov

 

[Soldat]

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Wanted to buy in the I if it fell, but it doesnt look like it will finish down. Plus, bonds look bull today, still 100% F and rolling with it!

 

[Soldat]

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Looking for the market to be down on Wed so I can buy in. Bonds are rolling but that will end. Im thinking we will see overall 2-5% returns in months november and december. I am seriously contemplating buy and hold 50 50 S I until Dec 22.

 

[Soldat]

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Probably going 100% I effective COB today, twenty minutes and we will seee what happens. I think the euro is due a rally. Look at the charts.

 

[vectorman]

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Soldat wrote:

Probably going 100% I effective COB today, twenty minutes and we will seee what happens. I think the euro is due a rally. Look at the charts.

I sure hope so. The Euro looks like it's bouncing on the bottom, but tomorrow is V-Day and I wonder how patriotic investers will be tomorrow. The one sad thing is, TSP is close tomorrow, so any change will be for friday and monday.

 

[Soldat]

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I went 100% I at 1130, so what your telling me is I fund needs to fall today and rally starting tomorrow... I'm down!

 

[Soldat]

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Where are you at Vectorman? I?

 

[Soldat]

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Looking for the I to be up and the S to be down, then make the jump between funds. It might not happen, but if it does, I wont miss it.

 

[Soldat]

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was I the only one hearing the voices say oversold?

 

[Spaf]

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Soldat wrote:

was I the only one hearing the voices say oversold?

:hhuh? Ya got me confused! Yesterday the RSI for the S&P500closed at 60.9

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm

 

[Soldat]

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Yes, but I am sitting in 100% I fund

 

[Soldat]

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Still 100% I

Finished at 4.14% for the month of November. Only mistake was thinking the i-train would ride alongside the s-train. I think it will ride longer and faster this month.

Rally until 27 Dec, little breathing room!

 

[Soldat]

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15%F
85%I
Today

I am certain that this surge is a continuation of our santa run and not an anomaly. Look for Friday and monday to be up and a VERY SLIGHT correction possible next week. In my opinion, this past correction was VERY small compared to the poison the techs have been spitting. Its one way up to Dec 24-29, again I say the drop will be early this year; people learn from past mistakes. Also, on Nov 03 I had originally said that the S would reach 16.12-16.22 by december end. I think we might see 16.60-16.80 if the rate hikes dont blunt the santa run. Regardless, I think that the I is a more safe hold at this point. From what I see, the F is also BFG (bound for glory). Though I will look to reinvest that 15% on the next correction.

Heilsa

 

[Soldat]

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Looks like today might be another GREAT day for the I fund, the Nikkei finished up 1.92%!!! FTSE is up .4% so far, has the ball and running with it. I am looking for another 1% or so today and probably heading for the hills, correction on monday and tuesday? Weve come up this hill very fast, must be losing steam? But then again, we might be up monday too!

 

[Soldat]

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I think that the C, S, and I, will finish strong today. Look for a big push coming in the afternoon, I could be wrong but I'm probably not, because, this is, The Santa Run...

 

[Soldat]

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ishares EFA bounces down from 59.48, testing the alltime high of 58.65

Interesting

 

[Soldat]

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Not moving today. FTSE and european markets rally last fifteen minutes, FTSE finishes .77% Nikkei finishes 1.92%. Will be reinvesting tuesday after the correction (more like a manipulation).

Good luck to all! And have a great weekend, heres a beer on me!

 

[Soldat]

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Well, there was a big push and they did finish strong, I betcha a twenty spot that mondays going to be up and at it again, any takers? Just look at that volume all today, feeding frenzy and the water was full of bait!!