sniper's Account Talk

[sniper]

stopped out for no gain. raised my sell stop to the break-even point after the intraday bounce, this choppy market activity makes me want to get out and watch what happens for now.

had a chance to sell for +2%, went back to sleep and woke up 1 hour later, seeing +2% go to -1.2%. saw the intraday pullback coming, but didn't think it'd be that drastic

 

[sniper]

all eyes will be on AAPL and AMZN, earnings hit/miss could very well be the catalyst for which direction this market decides to move

I'm right where I want to be in this kind of situation. sitting on cash and trading the reaction

AAPL is selling off EOD, people not feeling lucky?



edit: Amazon misses, down 7% AH

 

[sniper]

ouch, earnings miss for both. tomorrow's going to be ugly for the nasdaq and s&p.

already a bunch of shorting activity after-hours on the nasdaq

 

[Birchtree]

We could easily see some rotation tomorrow as technology takes a breather and housing picks up steam. My bet is the consolidation is probably complete at this point.

 

[sniper]

We could easily see some rotation tomorrow as technology takes a breather and housing picks up steam. My bet is the consolidation is probably complete at this point.

My analysis is usually always biased toward bullish, but I don't know, technicals are looking bleak for a lot of major indexes. fundamentals have been sucking for a while. 3 huge players miss earnings (google, amazon, now apple). Right now asian markets just took a big hit, I'm sitting from the sidelines for a bit.

If anything I'm expecting some volatility in the market, today's activity and A/H activity also showed that bulls haven't given up yet, but there is a lot of selling pressure. the market is going to be an arm wrestling match for a little bit.

 

[sniper]

Trouble on the horizon?

S&P Weekly 3-year chart. Things seemed to go down south fast every time the MACD divergence went negative on the weekly chart, just a caution flag.

 

[craigerv]

I just noticed the same thing about a week or two ago. This is why I'm expecting it equities to drop a bit more even if it rebounds initially.

 

[sniper]

I just noticed the same thing about a week or two ago. This is why I'm expecting it equities to drop a bit more even if it rebounds initially.

yep, I plan to trade some bounces, but when I'm expecting the market to turn bearish I have a more jump in-out strategy and tend not to hold overnight unless I'm sure of its direction (or willing to wake up at 4am since I'm on Hawaii time lol). TSP may stay locked into G-fund since I've changed my strategy on fund allocation to be more of a long-term vessel than a trading account because of the IFT limit / delay (it will follow the weekly chart opposed to the daily charts).

 

[sniper]

weekly chart rarely lies but election years are known to be bullish in november. be safe is all I'm saying to most out there.

i have a feeling wall street wants a republican winner so if there's any market manipulation, who knows, it may be to the downside (stock market performing badly is bad for a incumbent's odds for re-election)

 

[sniper]

 

[sniper]

I'm going to wait a day and watch price activity a little bit before jumping in. leaning bearish.

bullish case
- seasonality / election years in november are good
- market sentiment starting to get extremely bearish

bearish case
- technicals are not looking good for almost any major index (DJIA, SPX, RUT, QQQ all looking like they're in breakdown mode, or about to)
- hurricane sandy
- earnings reports have been weak this quarter
- despite the market fear, we haven't had a panic selloff yet like we typically do once a year. might just be a matter of time before that happens?

 

[sniper]

TNA buy limit triggered @ 58.37 for a bounce play. prolly a short term hold but seems to be working so far.

 

[sniper]

volume on IWM was over 2x normal, this bounce may have more conviction than I thought

 

[sniper]

out TNA 1.2% loss, my price target was correct (was predicting somewhere around $60 where the top of the downward channel is, and bouncing back down), just by the time I woke up it already happened. If there's anything to hate about living in Hawaii, it's the market opens at 4am lol.

 

[sniper]

and down she goes again, that was a wicked bounce to the downside from the 50-day (russell 2000)

 

[sniper]

shooting star action on the weekly chart (IWM, SPY, DIA). wanted to be bullish next week, but i gotta follow what the chart says. Staying G fund

For those who don't know yet, I changed my TSP strategy to make plays based of weekly chart readings. In the past, I tried to use a timing strategy similar to how I traded stocks/ETFs, and after realizing that wasn't possible due to IFT limitations, I changed my strategy for TSP to one that won't be making / thinking of making a new IFT from day to day, but looking to catch longer term swings.

The philosophy behind this will be much less short-term and more intermediate-long, may even look like a buy and hold strategy. But I think this would be the correct way to approach it, after all, it's gonna be another 25+ years before I can cash out my TSP, why should I worry about the short term? haha.

have a good weekend everyone, and don't forget to vote next week

 

[sniper]

wohoo, daylight savings for fall = IFT deadline is 7am instead of 6 here in hawaii

 

[sniper]

put in an order for tza when obama was announced the winner, up 5%, kaching!

 

[sniper]

out TZA +7%, waiting for a TNA entry, i think this was a kneejerk, we'll see. Still a lot of emotions in the market, so a lot of my moves will be in and out quickly.

TSP system staying G fund for the week

 

[sniper]

Russell 2000 channel surfing