sniper's Account Talk

[sniper]

RUT Weekly 3-year chart, showing the oscillator going into major oversold range. To just describe how oversold this is, even in 2008 it wasn't this far into oversold territory. bounce coming? who knows, but it's something to watch. With that said, I need more convincing from the charts before I get bullish.

 

[sniper]

I'm keeping my eye open for 'bounce play' opportunities to get in for 1-3 days and out. However I'm seeing weakness in the SPX / RUT in both the 15min & daily charts, I will continue to wait.

for anyone bullish on the market right now, i would like to hear thoughts on why out of curiosity? all my charts atm are pointing toward downward movement, and if we close below the down channel's lower resistance line, things can get even uglier, and fast

 

[Sensei]

for anyone bullish on the market right now, i would like to hear thoughts on why out of curiosity?

Not saying I'm bullish, but your weekly chart on the RUT looks like we could be primed for a bounce off support of the 50 week moving average. Of course, the 20 week is right on top of it... Also, it's looking like the Sentiment Survey ought to move back to a buy. Just a couple arguments I can think of to make a short-term play for stocks.

 

[sniper]

Not saying I'm bullish, but your weekly chart on the RUT looks like we could be primed for a bounce off support of the 50 week moving average. Of course, the 20 week is right on top of it... Also, it's looking like the Sentiment Survey ought to move back to a buy. Just a couple arguments I can think of to make a short-term play for stocks.

Yep, that's one thing I was looking at. I need a little more confirmation though, but I'm on the ready for a buy signal as soon as next week. I don't plan to be in a buy situation long though, in my system when the weekly MACD divergence is negative I treat it like a bear market (in and out buying, short bounces)

 

[sniper]

Moving to S fund for the short term. My outlook is still bearish in the intermediate term, but this is just a bounce play to the IWM gap fill.

There is another gap around the 83 mark but I'm not getting too greedy in what looks to be a down market right now.

 

[BooDog]

Moving to S fund for the short term. My outlook is still bearish in the intermediate term, but this is just a bounce play to the IWM gap fill.

There is another gap around the 83 mark but I'm not getting too greedy in what looks to be a down market right now.

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I know I'm not here very often, mostly when I'm considering a position that seems a bit more risky than usual. Moved a bit to the S as well but still keeping over 65% G for now.
good luck.

 

[BooDog]

Cant post the charts but looking at the history and the chances of slipping into oversold (below the 30 line rsi) for the dow seemd low and was risky enough for me to put some back in play. We'll see.

 

[sniper]

Cant post the charts but looking at the history and the chances of slipping into oversold (below the 30 line rsi) for the dow seemd low and was risky enough for me to put some back in play. We'll see.

Good luck And yes the oversold indicator is what is driving my decision. My TSP system mainly follows the weekly charts, and whenever it's in oversold territory, that's when a bounce is/might be happening. The oscillator went from a major oversold reading to starting to point back up, so the buyers are stepping in.

I do predict that this first wave will be a minor bounce followed by a slam downward though (if history repeats itself), we'll see.

 

[sniper]

For those into trading leveraged funds, here's a guy on stocktwits that really knows his stuff: Mike Tinat (rchitecto) on StockTwits

 

[sniper]

Weekly thoughts, Russell 2000 is looking oversold, and the last couple moves down seemed a little overextended, so we may be seeing a little of a relief rally, mostly caused by shorts taking their profits. I don't believe that it will be a sustained rally and we may be looking at bigger moves to the downside.

For someone with a bullish long-term outlook, a case could be made to say that we are still in a long term uptrend, as the trend of higher highs / lower lows are still intact, but sometime in the next few weeks I expect that trend to break down. In my system anytime the MACD divergence is negative, I'm more careful and treat things like a bear market. I may take my profits and go back to the G-fund after my target range of 82 is hit. we'll see how it goes. Have a good weekend and be safe everyone.

Of course I may get bullish in short-term trades here and there, but in my TSP system, I altered it to be a more long-term vessel and act mainly on activity of the long-term (weekly) trends, as it's money I won't be able to touch in 20+ years anyway. Keeping it basic. Actually looking at yearly charts on the S&P and russell, if you buy whenever weekly MACD divergence goes positive and go to cash (g fund) whenever it's negative, you make a nice return. You won't pick the bottom perfectly using this method, but you also won't get slammed in those flash crash scenarios. You really just want to make sure you're in G fund during those weeks when **** hits the fan (like in 2008 and 2011), and you're good to go.

 

[MaStA]

I'm hoping for a short term run up since I'm currently holding 200 shares of XIV

 

[sniper]

I'm hoping for a short term run up since I'm currently holding 200 shares of XIV

Good luck! Although the VIX has been confusing to me in the past couple days. The VIX seemed to be going in the same direction as the S&P which doesn't happen very often, what could cause this?

 

[MaStA]

Good luck! Although the VIX has been confusing to me in the past couple days. The VIX seemed to be going in the same direction as the S&P which doesn't happen very often, what could cause this?

Stupid people saying stupid things.

 

[MaStA]

XIV is up over 5% currently. Doing good right now!

 

[Birchtree]

Remember the VIX is used to discount momentum and fear for the future - better days ahead.

 

[sniper]

I feel there's a major selloff coming in the horizon, but it won't happen until a bounce does. for a panic selloff to happen you need a bounce that will lure more buyers in. the biggest 3 crashes in the last 5 years happened when the market was overbought / leaning overbought. it is currently majorly oversold.

generally when markets crash, the market wants to take as many people down as possible. with buyers currently afraid to buy, bears won't win much by crashing it now.

at least that's my take.

 

[craigerv]

Sniper, I feel the same way. There seems to be a lot of bearish sentiment out there now. I think it's likely in the next week or two we go a bit further down. But I wouldn't at all be surprised to see us hit the September highs again before a correction like 2011. Time will tell.

 

[MaStA]

My XIV shares are tearing it up and futures are looking good for them as well! Now if only I could get my TSP to go up instead of down that would be a great day.

 

[sniper]

My XIV shares are tearing it up and futures are looking good for them as well! Now if only I could get my TSP to go up instead of down that would be a great day.

good job man

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sniper, just curious... why is your current allocation S? Looks like the charts are bearish at this stage, in my opinion.