10/03/12
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday, then proceeded to giveback the gains and trade in negative territory for most of the day before a last hour rally took some indices back into the green, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow lost 33.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0043%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.10%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.25%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is still struggling to move above the new short-term descending trendline created off of the September highs. It remains in a longer-term rising trading channel and there is strong support near 1430 where two trendlines meet.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I mentioned yesterday that many of the indicators are sitting in a neutral position and here the NYSE overbought / oversold indicator sits just north of zero.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
One interesting development was a quick reversal by the smart money (OEX put / call ratio) back into a defensive position. That always gets my attention, but when both the smart and the dumb money go into defensive mode with a rising put/call ratio (falling on the chart) the market tends to rally more, rather than fall.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That daily reading of 4.67 to 1 is actually the 3rd most bearish one-day reading by the smart money in many years. Why they went from a rising, getting bullish, mode two days ago, to a very extreme negative two days of bearishness, I don't know.
The bear flags on the charts with the smart money getting bearish is a concern to me. But again, when everyone is bearish, it's not usually a bad thing for the market... at least in the short-term.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
