Not a heck of a lot going on yesterday as the Dow ended the day down 1-point and traded within a fairly tight range all day. All three TSP stock funds closed within a quarter of a percent of Friday's close, and bonds were flat.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0190%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Stocks and the S&P 500 (SPY) remain in a "melt-up" as the the bears remain on the sidelines waiting for the bulls to throw them some meat to chew on. So far, nothing as we made another new high on Monday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Even Apple's earnings report last night did little to shake things up as they came in slightly above their estimates and in after hours trading AAPL was within about 1% of Monday's closing price.
The Dow (DIA) has been in a sideways trading range since May and we're looking at a situation where we will either get a breakout and a possible new leg higher soon, or the DIA will pull back toward the middle or bottom of this trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index is still shooting higher having barely a down day in close to 3 weeks. This is a market leader so it is a bullish sign for stocks. The recent drop in oil prices didn't hurt the Transports, but a major catalyst for this recent move higher has been the big rally in airline stocks, which either means the airlines are increasing their margins, or people are flying more. The latter would be a better sign for the economy.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were flat yesterday but they are still in a short-term downtrend, which is bullish for bond prices and the F-fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
But if we look at the longer-term chart of bond prices and yields you can see that the prices (left) may be forming a huge topping head and shoulders pattern that could be long-term bearish. And since yields move in the opposite direction to prices, the 30-year bond yield actually looks bullish after bottoming in 2012 and forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern since.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
How you trade bonds and the F-fund should depend on your investment timeframe as there is a different story being depending on if you look at the short term or long term charts.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we go over a few more charts plus the short and longer term indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
